CanPol: Gomery and a Looming Federal Election

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


Yeah, I'm a paid up member of the Conservative party, and have been so for several years.

You know what I meant...

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn


What % of Anglos (about) comprise those 21 ridings?

Probably about 45% anglo 20% allo 35% franco. before you ask, allophones don't vote for the bloc either.

But as far as the NDP, it would seem that people (Anglos or not) who can't support the Libs and are left-leaning (thought not separatist) might see the NDP as a good alternative? This whole thing is about alternatives, itsn't it? Or are these ridings mostly right-leaning?

they are more conservative than the NDP. much less conservative than the CPC. They are naturally in the centre of the liberal party, though can be persuaded to vote for moderate conservatives on rare occasions. They aren't going to go for a party that they feel is going to alienate French Quebec (this is in the back of their minds constantly). They are also not socially conservative. A lot of middle class neighbourhoods. Some urban stuff downtown (NDP could possibly get significant votes in one or two ridings there, but it would be difficult).

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither
OK, Kitty. I'll bet you $10 that the Tories take at least one seat in Quebec during the next federal election. I'd ask for odds, given history, but I think we are looking at one of those 'people are too pissed off to fall for Liberal slander one more time' situations.

If the Tories don't take one, I'll double down and bet $20 the Greens or NDP take at least one.

Taking one or two might just barely be possible. I wouldn't guarantee that wouldn't happen by any stretch. Might get a good run in Westmount or something. Right now the Liberals don't really have anywhere to fall in Quebec, though. They've got 21 seats, but those are 21 of the most solid seats in the country. The Bloc took every reasonably contested seat last time around.

Quebec is not going to be the place where the CPC wins an election, if they do so.

[KrazyHorse]

The CPC is in even worse shape in Quebec than I thought. There are about 5 seats which went more than 15% Conservative last year, and all of them are Bloc strongholds.

[KrazyHorse]

This is the closest they get

http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=pas&document=24036&dir=38e/resval&lang=e&textonly=false

[KrazyHorse]

Those 5 seem to be centred in the Quebec City region. The CPC is welcome to take those seats from the Bloc if they can.

[Richelieu]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Jimmy, what don't you understand: as it stands there are only 4 official parties.. People have to vote for one of them. It won't be the Bloc or the NDP in those areas, and until the conservatives can do something major it won't be them either.

That's just the thing: the Conservatives did not have to do anything major: the Liberals did it for them.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 to 5 Quebec seats go Conservative if an election is called. The Ottawa valley and even some Anglo seats in Montreal aren't out of reach IMO. Not because of PC policies but because of Liberal **** ups.
But whether or not that happens is beside the point. I think Ontario is going to give the Conservatives the seats they need for a minority government. The Bloc will go along for a while: Libs or Conservatives aren't much different as far as they're concerned. Whoever gives them more is going to get their vote, until there is a vote on same sex marriage (or some other issue of the same type).

[KrazyHorse]

I think you're overjudging the impact of the sponsorship inquiry on the minds of english quebec and understating their distaste for the CPC.

Two might just get done.

Five is way too high IMO.

As for Ontario: I don't know. I don't think so, but we'll see soon enough, at the speed things are going. The CPC has a hill of ~35 seats to climb. It's not impossible, but I think that's streatching the limits of what ridings people will vote for them in. I'd give the Liberals about 70% or so to take more seats than the CPC in the next election. This depends heavily, of course, on what else the inquiry comes up with.

[Wezil]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Until the CPC changes quebecers aren't going to vote for it. That's not wishful thinking; that's a fact.

Based on today's polls, you and I are both going to have to eat crow.

You for the above statement (Conservatives are running ahead of Liberals now) and me for thinking there was nothing that could wake Canadians up.

I still have to ask why 1 in 4 Canadians still intend to vote for these crooks though. They must be the truly brain dead.

[embalmer42]

I think you're underestimating the ingrained stupidity that most Canadians seem to possess. By the time any election does come around this too will be forgotten and/or forgiven by the masses. Whether they simply don't care about the scandle or allow their gullibility to be exploited by the master Liberals, the results will be the same.

[Hot Mustard]

All I can say is

[notyoueither]

There's another factor to take into account. Apparently there are more than one or two Liberal MPs looking across the floor and wondering if the grass is greener in the opposition benches.

So far Kilgour from Edmonton and an unnamed three or four from Ontario have been mentioned.

Is it conceivable that one or two from Quebec might cross to the Tories if they could extract suitable assurances from Harper? If I were Stronach and McKay, I'd be working that angle big time.

[notyoueither]

... otherwise it could get pretty lonely during a possible referendum in Quebec should Charest lose his government.

Was listening to a guy from Sun publishing on one of the morning radio talk shows. He did not paint a picture that many Canadians should look forward to.

A devastated Liberal party, the Tories with few or no prominent voices in Quebec, and then Charest loses to the PQ.

Who campaigns for non?

[Ben Kenobi]

Interesting.

Based on the EKOS poll that just came out, here would be my take on the numbers we would get.

Seat Share

CPC 51.2
BQ 20.3
LIB 17.6
NDP 10.3
GRN 0.7

EKOS poll results

36.2 Conservative
25.0 Liberals
20.5 NDP
12.6 BQ
5.0 GRN

[Tingkai]

Yes, but that's before the Conservatives start campaigning. Once that happens, their support will plummet. The Conservatives always find ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.