CanPol: Gomery and a Looming Federal Election

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
They don't have any choice as it stands. The conservatives have fallen so low in anglo quebec that liberal votes get siphoned off as much to the NDP as they do to the conservatives.

KH: It doesn't matter who they vote for as long as its not the liberals in terms of who forms the next government.

And the only other party besides the libs who have a snowballs chance in hell of forming a government is the conservatives. Unless you think there's going to be an NDP/Lib coalition, which isn't likely.

Really a vote for anyone but the liberals is a vote for the conservatives. Unless the conservatives really screw up it will be hard for them to walk away from the next election without big gains, if not a minority government.

[KrazyHorse]

Jimmy, what don't you understand: as it stands there are only 4 official parties.. People have to vote for one of them. It won't be the Bloc or the NDP in those areas, and until the conservatives can do something major it won't be them either.

So people vote for the Liberals because they have no other choice.

[KrazyHorse]

By far the most likely to win anglo quebec after the Grits are the new Tories. But even they aren't a realistic option as it stands.

[Bosh]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
More likely they go Conservative than to the Bloc.



What's your prediction?

I'll be lazy and predict that things stay exactly as they are.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Jimmy, what don't you understand: as it stands there are only 4 official parties.. People have to vote for one of them. It won't be the Bloc or the NDP in those areas, and until the conservatives can do something major it won't be them either.

So people vote for the Liberals because they have no other choice.

In tumultuous times, people make unpredicted and unpredictable choices.

The best thing that could ever happen to the Tories social policy wise would be to pick up 3 or 4 MPs from Quebec.

Just as Alberta never stood a prayer of influencing Liberal policy with no MPs from here, so too Quebec needs to produce MPs to have a stronger voice in the CPC.

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by notyoueither


In tumultuous times, people make unpredicted and unpredictable choices.

This is exactly what I'm saying. I agree with KH that the liberals will most likely win in a number of ridings which don't generally favor the Bloc (like those 21 which are now lib), but you never know given this environment. I'm just raising the question.

KH, I know you're from Quebec, but I practically live there now and its CRAZY here. Although I admit I can't speak for anywhere besides Ottawa/Gatinueau, but from what I hear its similar.

Edit: and by the way, I'm not exactly rooting for the CPC (although I'd love to see the libs go down in flames), so I'm not speaking with any bias for them... like (I presume) Ben Kenobi is.

Edit2:

So people vote for the Liberals because they have no other choice.

I completely agree with your logic, and I would bet this happens. I just wouldn't bet the farm on it this time around (though maybe a small amount of money...).

[KrazyHorse]

If you think that the CPC is going to win seats in quebec then say so. Don't give me this "it doesn't matter as long as it's not the Liberals". That's disingenuous.

[KrazyHorse]

The CPC got 12% in my old riding

12% in a riding which went to Mulroney twice.

12% in the heart of anglo quebec

For God's sake, the bloc got 10% there.

12% is a bad joke. Until the CPC changes quebecers aren't going to vote for it. That's not wishful thinking; that's a fact.

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
If you think that the CPC is going to win seats in quebec then say so. Don't give me this "it doesn't matter as long as it's not the Liberals". That's disingenuous.

They might pick up a few seats in Quebec, though any more than a couple would be far fetched. And even a couple is pushing it.

I'm not so sure that people won't vote NDP or Bloc though. What makes you convinced enough to rule them out right off the bat? And pre-Gomery polls, etc don't count... because its a completely different story now.

But I admit, you obviously would know more about Quebec politics than me. I'm just skeptical.

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
The CPC got 12% in my old riding

12% in a riding which went to Mulroney twice.

12% in the heart of anglo quebec

For God's sake, the bloc got 10% there.

12% is a bad joke. Until the CPC changes quebecers aren't going to vote for it. That's not wishful thinking; that's a fact.

This is pre-Gomery though. What makes you think it hasn't changed?

BTW, I'm not challenging you, I'm just asking.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn
I'm not so sure that people won't vote NDP or Bloc though. What makes you convinced enough to rule them out right off the bat? And pre-Gomery polls, etc don't count... because its a completely different story now.

NDP is not a quebec party

English people don't vote for the bloc

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


NDP is not a quebec party

English people don't vote for the bloc

What % of Anglos (about) comprise those 21 ridings?

But as far as the NDP, it would seem that people (Anglos or not) who can't support the Libs and are left-leaning (thought not separatist) might see the NDP as a good alternative? This whole thing is about alternatives, itsn't it? Or are these ridings mostly right-leaning?

[notyoueither]

OK, Kitty. I'll bet you $10 that the Tories take at least one seat in Quebec during the next federal election. I'd ask for odds, given history, but I think we are looking at one of those 'people are too pissed off to fall for Liberal slander one more time' situations.

If the Tories don't take one, I'll double down and bet $20 the Greens or NDP take at least one.

[Ben Kenobi]

so I'm not speaking with any bias for them... like (I presume) Ben Kenobi is.

Yeah, I'm a paid up member of the Conservative party, and have been so for several years.

[Uncle Sparky]

... so at this time last year, I was in Calgary finishing off a 9 month theatre tour. Within three weeks of my return to Winnipeg, a federal election was called. As a regular contract employee of Elections Canada, I received a call and a very nice temporary full time contract.

I'm currently in Calgary. The show I'm in wraps next week. I'll be back in Winnipeg on the 20th of April and officially "at liberty". If anyone here has pull, could you arrange for the government to fall the first week of May? I wouldn't mind a couple of weeks off before my next Elections Canada contract...