Taiwan: Would War be viable?

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Velociryx
China has a long history of isolationism of a sort that made US isolationism look pathetic, by comparison. Echoes of that long-standing isolationism won't be undone by a few strategic arrangements for resources, while China's heavy-handed policies and tendency to simply pirate what it needs, rather than wheel and deal with (and fully engage) other inducstrialized nations will turn a lot of people off.

The past does not always portend the future. China is not practicing isolationist policies now. Quite the opposite. It is engage in global trade, something it did not do until a decade or so again.

As for piracy, the U.S. had a long history of that, as did other countries. The question is whether Chinese companies will match their expertise in production with expertise in marketing and R&D. Corporations in other countries have (look at Samsung in the past 10 years) so it is likely the Chinese will.

Originally posted by Velociryx
In short, China is a bumbling fool when it comes to actually DEALING (in the business sense) with other nations, and this shows no signs of improvement in the immediate future.

Perhaps China should take some lessons from the US which has so well in its subtle international negotions.

Originally posted by Velociryx
China's economic growth remains solid right now for one reason alone...they have figured out that they can throw a LOT of people at a particular economic process or problem, and wind up being the low cost producer.

To some degree you are correct. China recognises and takes advantage of its natural advantage, but a the same time, China has been quite adept at demanding that foreign investors bring new technology into the country rather than just being a low-cost labour pool, unlike countries such as the Philippines which is paying the price for selling its workers to the lowest bidder without getting long-term benefits.

Chinese companies also have a strong advantage in making deals, for example, Li Ka-shing is the greatest deal makers in the world. The big challenge for these companies is in managing their businesses at a level that can match American corporate executives and in developing existing resources to create international brands.

[MOBIUS]

When China gets round to wresting back control of Taiwan, the US will turn the other she lest she allows war with China to allow her downfall.

Taiwan R.I.P.

Only a matter of time...

[DinoDoc]

Aren't you glad Europe is selling weapons to China, MOBIUS?

[MOBIUS]

"Guns don't kill people - people kill people"

Hey it's Capitalism, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em...

[techumseh]

@Velociryx - Why do you say China is a 'bumbling fool' in international trade?

[MOBIUS]

Cos he feels threatened and wants to feel better

[Velociryx]

re: the "bumbling fool" comment - Quite simply because China has not shown much more than instinctual savvy at this point, in the business arena. The practical, day-to-day business savvy will come in time, but they ain't there yet...not by a long shot.

re: America's business savvy - do not confuse the USA's muddled governmentally driven foriegn policy decisions with good old fashioned business sense. The fact is, the US is the world's largest economy, ahead in nearly every economic measure in existence. This tells me that they're doing something right. Their rise has been nothing short of metoric and miraculous, frankly.

In the span of less than two hundred years they went from being a totally dependent set of client colonies for Old World European powers who had more than a thousand year head start on them, to surpassing their former masters in every concievable way.

That's not an inconsiderable achievement, and again, speaks to doing LOTS of things right. So yeah, they get it. They get it in ways the Chinese just plain don't yet.

-=Vel=-

[Joseph]

One thing is a big supprise is that the new leadership in China is more hard core then the older leadership that was just replaced a year or two ago. I guess I was hoping that the newer leaders being a little younger, would be easier to work with, but not the case.

[RGBVideo]

nm

[techumseh]

What do you think of China's recent treaty with Venezuela, giving it access to a large portion of Venezuela's oil production? Or China's decision to start selling off some of it's American exchange in response to the soaring US foreign debt? It looks like the American dollar is in for a rough ride.

[PLATO]

The Official ROC response:

Home|Sitemap|Contact Us|Chinese Weather Taiwan Time: March 14, 2005 09:18 GMT+8:00 Login Register
The Chinese authorities' deliberation of the "Anti-Separation Law" clearly reveals the essence of their military aggression
Date: 2005/03/10 14:00:00
SOURCE: Mainland Affairs Council, EY

Through the legislation of the law, the Chinese authorities intend to deny the Republic of China its sovereignty and unilaterally change the status quo. It has already created tension in the region and justifies the concern of both the international community and the Taiwanese Government over China's motives. This law exposes China's intent to use military force to annex Taiwan and dominate the region. It has essentially written a blank check for its military to resort to military force against Taiwan. The Taiwanese Government offers the strongest protest regarding the disruption of peace in the East Asian region and stability in the Taiwan Strait, ignoring of the Taiwanese people's will and encroachment of the Taiwanese people's freedom of choice through ill intentions and violent measures.

The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), firmly states that the current situation in the Taiwan Strait is that the Republic of China is a sovereign nation and both sides of the Strait have no jurisdiction over one another. The Taiwanese people cannot accept China's “one country, two systems” arrangement. Any changes to the status quo must require the consensus of the twenty-three million Taiwanese people and the Chinese authorities must accept this fact. The Chinese authorities deliberately attempt to unrealistically dwarf Taiwan by legislating the “one China policy” and “one country, two systems”, and persist on adopting non-peaceful measures to solve cross-strait conflicts. The MAC stresses that the direct-presidential election in Taiwan in 1996 was an important process in deepening democratization in Taiwan. The international community should still be able to recall China's military intimidation by launching missiles in the Taiwan Strait and igniting anxiety on all fronts. The Chinese authorities now adopt legal authorization, which they may resort to methods of violence against Taiwan. This will inevitably endanger peace and security in Taiwan Strait and the East Asian region.

The Republic of China pursues free democracy and have always receive high-level of recognition from the international community. The Taiwanese government believes that “the best hope for peace in our world is the expansion of freedom and democracy throughout the world.” This is also the same value which the United States of America, Japan, European Union and other countries pursue with Republic of China. This is the biggest difference between the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China. The MAC stresses that, the collective will of the Taiwanese people is expressed through democratic processes. But the Chinese authorities intend to suppress the Taiwanese people with “non-peaceful” and “non-democratic” measures. This shows a clear lack of democratic knowledge by the Chinese authorities and is also the worst ill intended trampling of international human rights and value of democracy.

In the past, the Taiwanese public opinion has explicitly expressed repeatedly that on the one hand, their hope of maintaining cross-strait peace and stability, and on the other hand, their persistence of maintaining a self-governing democratic system. The MAC points out that at the moment, the international community is very concerned about China's formulation of the “Anti-Separation Law.” The Chinese authorities have not considered the Taiwanese people's common aspiration and even disregarded the anxieties of the international community. The Chinese authorities constantly proclaim the so-call “placing hope on the Taiwanese people,” “peaceful development” and “oppose hegemony,” but is actually legislating forceful and “non-peaceful” measures to deal with the Taiwanese people; deceiving and hurting the feelings of the Taiwanese people.


The MAC indicates that in the past five years, the Taiwanese Government has made many efforts to improve cross-strait relations. Concrete suggestions for constructing cross-strait peace and stability have been proposed in cross-strait exchanges and dialogues, yet the Chinese authorities completely dismiss the Taiwanese Government's continuous efforts in improving cross-strait relations by formulating this law and creating barriers against further cross-strait exchanges and resumption of dialogues. The Taiwanese Government would like to appeal to the international community again, to challenge China's false hegemony behavior of “saying one thing and doing another”, and take concrete actions to assist in safeguarding the present peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Please note the 1st sentence of paragraph two where Taiwan says it is a sovereign state.

PRC...your move.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Velociryx
China has a long history of isolationism of a sort that made US isolationism look pathetic, by comparison.

With thousands of years of history there bound to be cycles in imperialistic behaviour.

In fact, the longest history of isolationism occurred during the latter part of the Ming dynasty (right after Zheng Ho's epic voyages). The latter part of the Qing dynasty was also somewhat isolationistic but wasn't as bad.

After 1949 the so called "Bamboo Wall" was partly forced by US's containment policy. The PRC was not diplomatically inactive, yet was mainly limited to contacts with Third World countries.

Originally posted by Velociryx
In short, China is a bumbling fool when it comes to actually DEALING (in the business sense) with other nations, and this shows no signs of improvement in the immediate future.

Is that why the EU is going to lift the arms embargo?

Originally posted by Velociryx
China's economic growth remains solid right now for one reason alone...they have figured out that they can throw a LOT of people at a particular economic process or problem, and wind up being the low cost producer.

Relative advantage - that's how it's supposed to work according to economists.

Originally posted by Velociryx
China will eventually follow suit, but in the meantime, and all the while, the US economy is growling ahead like the lion it is

Sorry to rain on your parade, Vel. The US economy now only account for ~20% of the worldwide pie and is shrinking. It has continually shrinking since WWII.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by PLATO
Please note the 1st sentence of paragraph two where Taiwan says it is a sovereign state.

PRC...your move.

Actually, the article said it the first thing:

Through the legislation of the law, the Chinese authorities intend to deny the Republic of China its sovereignty and unilaterally change the status quo.

Of course, the status quo and Taiwan having sovereignty are mutually exclusive.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Velociryx
re: the "bumbling fool" comment - Quite simply because China has not shown much more than instinctual savvy at this point, in the business arena. The practical, day-to-day business savvy will come in time, but they ain't there yet...not by a long shot.

re: America's business savvy - do not confuse the USA's muddled governmentally driven foriegn policy decisions with good old fashioned business sense. The fact is, the US is the world's largest economy, ahead in nearly every economic measure in existence. This tells me that they're doing something right. Their rise has been nothing short of metoric and miraculous, frankly.

In the span of less than two hundred years they went from being a totally dependent set of client colonies for Old World European powers who had more than a thousand year head start on them, to surpassing their former masters in every concievable way.

That's not an inconsiderable achievement, and again, speaks to doing LOTS of things right. So yeah, they get it. They get it in ways the Chinese just plain don't yet.

-=Vel=-

Actually, you greatly overestimate the beginning difference, and fail to mention some huge things:

Europe did NOT have a "1000" year jump start- the US began at the same level of knowledge and technology as the Europeans- the difference was one of size and resources, not of knowledge. The US was, since its birth as a independent state, fully integrated into the world economy and seen as a relative equal to European states in so far as being a sovereign state was. The US benefited immensely from wave after wave of humanity coming from Europe- same as Israel, which did not exist in 1947, by 1987 was the strongest state in the region-because it was integrated into the world economy and reaped the benefits of mass inflows of people and capital from the outside. Add to this large inflows not only of voluntary but involuntary migrants and the tens of millions of man hours of labor the economy got for free. in 1789 the US was nowhere near as big in population as any European power- by 1879 it had a population greater than all but Russia-this immense population growth into a relatively empty continent free of serious rivals by itself was enough to secure the US status as a great power- regardless of any "US business innovation". The US matured as Europe matured- it industrialized later than the UK< but about the same time as France and Germany, and earlier than Russia.

If anything, Japan is a symbol of a far greater, meteoric rise: within 50 years of being forced to open to the outside world, a state went from Feudal to world power capable of taking on one of Europe's great powers and beating them in land and at sea. I doubt you would claim that Japan is home to some great business acumen, yet a government driven top down approach achieved incredible things in less time.

Oh, and you final comment that the US surpasses the Europeans in "every conceivable way"- I can conceive of many ways in which the US is the same or behind Europeans, while ahead in others. But to return to Japan, in the 150 years since steam warships of the US forced a feudal pre-industrial Japan to open up, the Japanese today are richer per capita, live longer healthier lives than Americans, and are as Technologically advanced (unless you want to say Japan lags deep behind the US in technology). Maybe the "foolish" Chinese can replicate the advances of the Japanese.

[GePap]

The US economy is not "roaring like a lion"- if the government and the Social Security actuaries are correct the US eocnomy will continue to grow in the next 75 years at a rate of 1.9%, about 60% the average of the last 75 years and much slower than China and India.

What does ther US have that India and China can't get?? I can't think of a single thing. Perhaps the biggest impediments to greater Chinese growth are both internal- weak property rights for peasants, who still have not seen comprehensive and extensiuve land reform, and a weak judicial system. If Chiona fixed both of these, well, it would be set for long term economic growth- imagine if every Chinese peasant had the ability to know they owned their land, then was able to use it as collateral to get mortages and loans from reputable banks to start up a business?? That would be just simple awesome. It won't be easy for China to get there, but once it does, eclipsing the US won't even be a question.

Ditto for India.

People have a rather strange view of History. The zenith of US power was 1945- when it was the only power with nukes, about half of the worlds economic output, so forth and so on. The US made it to the top because it was big, rich, and its competitors bashed themselves silly while the US could sit in another hemisphere out of harm. Well, that world is gone. Human history has lasted 5000 years- anyone who thinks that one state will remain paramount for the rest of history is certifiable.