Rugby - Crouch and Hold!

[Havak]

I think you need counselling!

So very true!

I just wish the Paddys could have reproduced the form somewhere else along the line. Even for their own sake.

In a way they did. The win against France, in appalling conditions, was pretty impressive. The lack of panic against Wales showed them great credit?

You've mastered the subtle bait to the extent that it eludes even you!

What a nice way of saying I am clueless.

So what's the answer?

There are one or two things I would suggest. Firstly that the RFU helps it fellow home Unions (and that will never happen). There is hope – the WRU is modernising so the hang ons will be cleared out in time and the silly wages paid to players (the 90s it depended on number of caps – at one stage Neil Jenkins was receiving three or four times the appearance money of Jonah Lomu alledgedly!).

And a radical idea. I almost hesitate to put it forward. Let the Lions play at home in a four test series. One test in each home nation (remember Ireland are combined for rugby). The Lions are a cash cow (ask the ARU) and it would be a huge injection of money for each Union.

Another problem Ireland have is that hurling and Gaelic football dominate. Landsdowne road holds forty odd thousand. There’s a stadium in Dublin called Crowe Park, used for hurling, that is ultra modern and holds nearly ninety thousand. But hurling is all that is played there (age old rival sports you see). What the IRFU needs is to gain use of such stadiums and maximise their revenue. Easy for me to say I know.

"Hey! We made it into the IRB's stats!"

Could I just ask what you think the majority of the Bok or English roster do then?

Good old lies, damned lies and statistics strike again!

I’m guessing then that the Irish and Welsh participancy is vastly more impressive too?

What you can’t hide from though is that you have much more meat to choose from than the Celts or NZ. Sometimes stats show the odd real fact like that.

Six out of ten as a bait because (a) it's an oldie; and (b) it's so easily shot down.

Not so easily shot down unless you can convince me that 45K is less to choose form than 11K.

Heh Caligastia, how’s it going?

Bearcat – the B championship is a strange one for sure. There’s a subsidiary championship under the main six nations consisting of A teams – and England won that too. There’s the womens shadow competition – oh and England slammed that one.

The B tournament contains such luminaries as Holland, Spain, Portugal and Romania I believe? It gets almost no coverage in the press here so I had no idea our oldest allies had won it.

By the way guys in the U-21 six nations Wales won a Grand Slam – yes really! There is hope for the Taffs yet!

[finbar]

Originally posted by Havak
In a way they did. The win against France, in appalling conditions, was pretty impressive. The lack of panic against Wales showed them great credit?

Well, yes, but - not having seen the matches, only having read about them - they didn't seem to reproduce the quality they showed against us. Or maybe, and I wish them no disrespect at all, we made them look good.

What a nice way of saying I am clueless.

Moi? I prefer to think you reached heights of subtely previously unknown to modern man.

There are one or two things I would suggest. Firstly that the RFU helps it fellow home Unions (and that will never happen). There is hope ? the WRU is modernising so the hang ons will be cleared out in time and the silly wages paid to players (the 90s it depended on number of caps ? at one stage Neil Jenkins was receiving three or four times the appearance money of Jonah Lomu alledgedly!).

Yes, business plans seem to be the go. That's one thing the ARU seems to be good at.

And a radical idea. I almost hesitate to put it forward. Let the Lions play at home in a four test series. One test in each home nation (remember Ireland are combined for rugby). The Lions are a cash cow (ask the ARU) and it would be a huge injection of money for each Union.

Lions -v- whom? It would be a cash injection, but it would be a pretty short term benefit if they p*ss it away again on ineffective and unprofessional methods.

Another problem Ireland have is that hurling and Gaelic football dominate. Landsdowne road holds forty odd thousand. There?s a stadium in Dublin called Crowe Park, used for hurling, that is ultra modern and holds nearly ninety thousand. But hurling is all that is played there (age old rival sports you see). What the IRFU needs is to gain use of such stadiums and maximise their revenue. Easy for me to say I know.

I suppose that's one of the advantages rugby has here. In the rugby states, the only competition for the major facilities is from L*****, and the facilities end up shared. Because neither code actually owns the facilities, so there can't be any dog in the manger silliness.

Could I just ask what you think the majority of the Bok or English roster do then?

They'd use glasses. Our pigs whack an axe into the keg and stick their mouths over the opening.

I?m guessing then that the Irish and Welsh participancy is vastly more impressive too?

I'll check it out.

What you can?t hide from though is that you have much more meat to choose from than the Celts or NZ. Sometimes stats show the odd real fact like that.

With a bigger population - we have roughly 5 times New Zealand's population - you must have a higher participation rate. The important point was that Australia's rate is something like 0.07% of possible participants, while New Zealand's is something like 2.2%.

The even more important point - made in my Bricklayers Co-Op Social Club XV example - is that the vast majority of our participants are basically social players. We have 3 S12 teams from which our rep teams are chosen, and at least a third of those players wouldn't ever be considered at rep level. That's why we're constantly struggling for quality back-ups to our leading players. As I've said before, if rugby can keep its profile - regardless of how we do in the WRC - we could encourage more talent into the game. There are 3 major winter sports - for males - in this country, and in only one of them - rugby - can you actually represent your country on the world stage. Ultimately, that sort of appeal has to mean something.

Not so easily shot down unless you can convince me that 45K is less to choose form than 11K.

I suspect you might be convinced if I sent the 44K bricklayers over to you to demonstrate their, um, rugby skills on you.

[finbar]

I've put together some comparative statistics based on those IRB figures. It's twenty past midnight and I had nothing better to do. The trouble with these stats, as with the Australian and New Zealand ones I quoted earlier, is that, in determining the potential participants, I had to settle for the male population between the ages of 15 and 64. That's because that was the only range available for all the countries. Something like 15 to 30-something would be more appropriate. Unfortunately, those stats don't exist for all the countries. Well, they might, but I couldn't find them. The end result would have to be that these percentages are somewhat diluted by the inflated size of the potential participants.

Anyway, for what they're worth, here are the IRB figures translated as a percentage of potential participants (with the above proviso):

Australia 0.07%

Wales 1.8%

Ireland 0.9%

England 1%

South Africa 1%

New Zealand 2.2%

France 0.4%

Tomorrow, or when I find the time, I'll trawl the net for a more appropriate age range available for all the countries.

[Havak]

Lies, lies and damn statistics?

I'm afraid the player roster remains the more significant statistic however much we strive to find an angle that makes Australia look better.

How useful is percentage of potential participants? Not very I would suggest - sheer numbers are what matters. The talent pool available to pick from. And on that front Australia are comparatively well off.

Statistical modelling is a little misssed part of my educational past by the way - I know how you can obscure fact with careful choice of stats.

[finbar]

Originally posted by Havak
I know how you can obscure fact with careful choice of stats.

And you do it so well.

And posting prior to 8.30am? 'Tis getting earlier and earlier.

SCENE: HAVAK'S BEDROOM
CAST: HAVAK, MRS HAVAK

MR and MRS HAVAK, in bed, sound asleep. Suddenly, the alarm goes off. HAVAK shuts it off and gets out of bed.

MRS HAVAK: (sleepily) What time is it?

HAVAK: Two thirty a.m.

MRS HAVAK: Why on earth are you getting up at two thirty a.m.?

HAVAK: Going for my morning walk.

MRS HAVAK: You don't go for morning walks.

HAVAK: Do.

MRS HAVAK: Don't. You're going to post on that stupid rugby forum!

HAVAK: Am not!

MRS HAVAK: Are so!

HAVAK: Not!

MRS HAVAK: So!

HAVAK: All, right I am!

The SOUND of an ALMIGHTY THUMP in the darkness. The sound of HAVAK's cry of pain.

HAVAK: All right, I won't.

[Havak]

I generally start work at 8am but posting can be delayed depending on the mess awaiting me.

I see Woodward wants to rest Wilko in the warm up games against Aus and NZ - but the lad insists on playing. he is burning very bright and very fast isn't he? I wonder if he will make 30 and still be playing?

[ravagon]

Originally posted by finbar
Australia 0.07%

Wales 1.8%

Ireland 0.9%

England 1%

South Africa 1%

New Zealand 2.2%

France 0.4%

Bit of a problem there somewhere - and thats assuming per capita figures are even relevant (I don't quite see how given that one doesn't field a team of x players per capita... ).

If one uses those percentages to calculate your male population between 15 and 64 one gets 1.29 million Kiwis, which sounds roughly correct.
However when calculating the analogous number of Australians one ends up with roughly 65 million which, IIRC, is somewhat larger than 3x the total Australian population.
I think your abacus may have lost one of those zero-shaped thingies along the way.

[finbar]

Originally posted by Havak


I generally start work at 8am but posting can be delayed depending on the mess awaiting me.

So only 25 minutes worth of mess this morning? That's better than the usual.

It is also noted that you didn't deny the truth of the mini-drama.

I see Woodward wants to rest Wilko in the warm up games against Aus and NZ - but the lad insists on playing. he is burning very bright and very fast isn't he? I wonder if he will make 30 and still be playing?

Too keen for his own good. A lot of people are. The coach has to win out. What the player doesn't realise is that his wishes are, without him realising it, selfish. What's best for the team is obviously paramount.

Speaking of which, Chris Latham was carried off against the Hurricanes tonight. Either a broken or very badly sprained ankle. And having a blinder of a season. Another one falls by the wayside.

[finbar]

Originally posted by ravagon
thats assuming per capita figures are even relevant (I don't quite see how given that one doesn't field a team of x players per capita... ).

It's an indication of the participation rate. I'd be interested to know what the participation rates are for the other male-oriented sports in New Zealand.

I think your abacus may have lost one of those zero-shaped thingies along the way.

I restrung the beads and tried again. Delete the 0 after the decimal point. Damn abacus cashing in on my troglodytism!

[Tamerlin]

Originally posted by finbar
The SOUND of an ALMIGHTY THUMP in the darkness. The sound of HAVAK's cry of pain.

Havak, how goes your bruised nose...


The stade Toulousain is playing at home against Bourgoin this week-end. This game is important as this is the first game of the play-off at home. The situation would become very tricky in the case of a loss and the Stade Toulousain is in a really worrying shape since a few games.

Isn't Leicester playing this week-end?

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by Havak
Heh Caligastia, how’s it going?

Great! The top 4 super 12 teams are all from NZ! On the downside the Blues lost their game against the Highlanders...

[Caligastia]

Blues 11 - Highlanders 22

The halftime score was 12-11, so the Blues were scoreless in the second half. They definitely suffered from their lack of Fijian wingers They also seemed to be trying to take the Highlanders on up front a bit more than they should have. The Blues' strength is out wide, and they rarely got the chance to play to that strength. The Highlander's defence was so aggressive they just couldn't build up enough momentum. Oh well, perhaps they needed a loss to cool their heads a bit. It should be an easier match for them next week against the Bulls in Pretoria.

[Bearcat]

Eastside vs. Scappoose Preview

Tomorrow we're travelling out to take on the Scappoose rugby team for our fourth game of the year. I expect it to be a real "Clash of the Titans" type game. Both of our teams are undefeated, with Scappoose at 3-0 (I think) and us with 2 wins and a draw. Scappoose is a first year team, but they have a lot of American football players on their team and reportedly have a large and aggressive pack. Our team has a lot of athletic players, but we also have our share of kids playing for the hell of it (i.e. not very athletic, not very dedicated, and not in good shape). However we can field at least 11 players, if not more with prior rugby experience, while as I mentioned this is their first year.

Hopefully the weather will be nice tomorrow and we won't have to slog it out in the mud again, because that would give their forwards a real advantage, and our strength is in our backline. This week was a middling week as far as practice was concerned. Tuesday we had a good practice, and got some conditioning in, but on Thursday we only had 13 guys show up and practice was kind of a let down. Hopefully everybody will show up tomorrow and we can field an excellent Starting XV. If not, than don't expect a good post-game.

[LDiCesare]

I catch up with the discussion about penalty tries:
A penalty try is awarded when the foul has prevented the attacking side to scoe a try which was almost certain. It is also granted when repeated fouls prevent from scoring, such as repeated scrums like in a half final in a RWC where it wasn't awarded... So if a team has committed several fouls the referee can consider the repetition of fouls prevents the attacking team from scoring a try. I didn't see the match, but wanted to point out that a penalty try can be given to penalize repeated fouls in some cases. I am not sure it is in the laws of the game, but I remember that referees had been given directions to referee in that way.

[finbar]

Originally posted by LDiCesare
I didn't see the match, but wanted to point out that a penalty try can be given to penalize repeated fouls in some cases. I am not sure it is in the laws of the game, but I remember that referees had been given directions to referee in that way.

I didn't know that. But it might help to explain what happened. The penalty try I described surprised EVERYONE - including the attacking team. If the refs have been given instructions, no one else seemed to know about it.