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We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln
Did the "Actual Balance" swing as much as .9 percentage points upward for the US?
Even if you consider it this way, I think the analysis still stands. When Germany isn't growing and is running a 3% deficit, it's no good. When the US is running a 3.5% (or whatever) deficit on a net lending basis, but is growing at 2.4%, that's much more manageable.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
Originally posted by DanS
Did the "Actual Balance" swing as much as .9 percentage points upward for the US?
What period and/or data are you referring to?
Originally posted by DanS
Even if you consider it this way, I think the analysis still stands. When Germany isn't growing and is running a 3% deficit, it's no good. When the US is running a 3.5% (or whatever) deficit on a net lending basis, but is growing at 2.4%, that's much more manageable.
True but then Germany is part of a larger currency zone - there the deficit is around 2.3% - growth (when adjusting for the differences caused by the US's use of a hedonic deflator) was 1.3% last year.
2002. I see IMF forecasting 2.6% actual balance in September, but you're telling me it ended up at 3.5% for the year.
True but then Germany is part of a larger currency zone - there the deficit is around 2.3% - growth (when adjusting for the differences caused by the US's use of a hedonic deflator) was 1.3% last year.
I thought about that before posting yesterday and agree. But the 3% ceiling is meant to take the business cycle into account already (under the assumption that 3% growth is about the best you're going to get). It is only happenstance that Germany and France are somewhat out of cycle with the rest of the Euro-zone economies.
Also, re hedonic factors, I seem to remember that they make bigger differences in the US versus what they would make in Europe because of the different economic structures. Have you factored that in?
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
2002. I see IMF forecasting 2.6% actual balance in September, but you're telling me it ended up at 3.5% for the year.
Well as I said I have forecasted the amount for 'corporate profits and tax accurals' for Q4 (at $215bn) but this figure tends not to move enourmously.
I see I have made one error (I was using the old 'advance' estimate for nominal GDP in 2002 not the new 'provisional' one) this puts the deficit at 3.3% not 3.5% (although the figure for Q4 was 3.7%)
Originally posted by DanS
I thought about that and agree. But the 3% ceiling is meant to take the business cycle into account already (under the assumption that 3% growth is about the best you're going to get). It is only happenstance that Germany and France are somewhat out of cycle with the rest of the Euro-zone economies.
Not entirely sure what your point is here, but...
OECD forecasts of structural deficit and potential growth rate (adjusted for hedonic deflator differences)
USA:
Structural Deficit: -2.7%
Potential Growth: 2.9% (personally I think this is more like 2.5% at the moment)
Most third world countries don't produce enough food for export. Productivity improvements in the US are a reality.
brazil makes tons of sugar cane
latin america makes tons of bananas
ethiopia makes tons of coffee
so does costa rica
all of this is food, and they are some of the worlds leaders in these goods. maybe the produce more in the US, but they cant cover their costs, so what does it matter? relative to the third world, there is no way the US or any other developed country can keep up.
third world countries use very little capital for their production and their workers are dirt cheap. they may be inefficient, but their costs are so low that the US needs to protects its own farmers by subsidizing.
"Everything for the State, nothing against the State, nothing outside the State" - Benito Mussolini
Well, I'd be inclined to agree with you LoA, but, the US agriculture business runs on the backs of migrant workers, who also work for dirt cheap.
We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln
Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
brazil makes tons of sugar cane
latin america makes tons of bananas
ethiopia makes tons of coffee
true, but we don't compete in these markets. no one can compete with us for crops we grow.
"When you ride alone, you ride with Bin Ladin"-Bill Maher
"All capital is dripping with blood."-Karl Marx
"Of course, my response to your Marx quote is 'So?'"-Imran Siddiqui
I'm having a hard time believing LoA when he says farmn subsidies in the U.S. cause coffee farmers in Costa Rica to be poor; especially when the U.S. doesn't grow a single coffee bean.
Well, I'd be inclined to agree with you LoA, but, the US agriculture business runs on the backs of migrant workers, who also work for dirt cheap.
not since they were unionized.
rue, but we don't compete in these markets. no one can compete with us for crops we grow.
thats why we have a tariff on sugar. so they cant compete with us. and a tariff on cotton from india and egypte (its not food, buts its agriculture) and thats why we subsidize the fruit growers in california, so that foreign fruits cant compete. or if we dont do that, we put extra regulations (spraying for pests, spraying again for something else, washing to remove DDT, washing again to remove the other washing) which drives up the price.
"Everything for the State, nothing against the State, nothing outside the State" - Benito Mussolini
Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
thats why we have a tariff on sugar. so they cant compete with us. and a tariff on cotton from india and egypte (its not food, buts its agriculture) and thats why we subsidize the fruit growers in california, so that foreign fruits cant compete. or if we dont do that, we put extra regulations (spraying for pests, spraying again for something else, washing to remove DDT, washing again to remove the other washing) which drives up the price.
Your argument is consistant but wrong. US farmers are the most productive in the world. I don't have a source, but I'm sure you will find out one day.
"When you ride alone, you ride with Bin Ladin"-Bill Maher
"All capital is dripping with blood."-Karl Marx
"Of course, my response to your Marx quote is 'So?'"-Imran Siddiqui
Duncan is right. American farmers (actually American farming businesses) are the most productive in the world. Without a doubt having a higher productivity than non-first world countries.
Subsidies are there to pay the small farmers whose crop prices are rapidly falling (which comes from higher supply because of the increased productivity).
The US is also the world's largest agricultural exporter, which seems to show that US agri-productivity is high.
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- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)
I thought the Aussies and canadians, matches the US in terms of agriculture. I can't see why the canadians wern't the same in terms of productivity.
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