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  • #136
    Originally posted by DanS
    ef: You would agree with me that the Economist is talking out of its ass with that comment, right?
    Sorry, but I would have to agree with it, see below:


    Originally posted by DanS
    How many anti-dumping actions has the US taken recently?
    Well that depends on what you mean by recently - but in the last 10-15 years the number as quadrupled.


    Originally posted by DanS
    There seems to be a logjam at the global level. Some multilateral deals will help with that logjam. IOW, these are tactical moves.
    Now that's just daft 'justification' - what you are saying is that the US is 'tactically' doing things that will reduce trade liberalization globally (trade diversion in bilateral deals) because it cannot make any progress in multilateral trade liberalization.
    That's like deciding to add weight to a car because it's not going fast enough.
    19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

    Comment

    • #137
      "Well that depends on what you mean by recently - but in the last 10-15 years the number as quadrupled."

      I would like to see the breakdown. Also consider the flip side of the coin--this might just be a reflection of the unfair trade tactics of others.

      "Now that's just daft 'justification' - what you are saying is that the US is 'tactically' doing things that will reduce trade liberalization globally (trade diversion in bilateral deals) because it cannot make any progress in multilateral trade liberalization.
      That's like deciding to add weight to a car because it's not going fast enough."

      Your simile doesn't hold. It doesn't add "weight", but reduces it. By following your simile, even regional trade deals (NAFTA, AFTA) would add weight, because it's not global.

      Whether or not it reduces weight sufficiently is a fair question, of course. And that's where it's value as a tactic comes to the fore. Else, why would we sign these deals, if it didn't benefit us one way or another?

      Or am I missing something here?

      On another subject, how about those productivity numbers, eh? Highest rate since Q1 '73. It's tough to believe them.
      Attached Files
      Last edited by DanS; December 6, 2002, 12:37.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

      Comment

      • #138
        Originally posted by DanS

        I would like to see the breakdown. Also consider the flip side of the coin--this might just be a reflection of the unfair trade tactics of others.
        It is important to realise that the case for free trade does not depend on others' actions. It is in US interests to remove tariffs whether or not the EU or Japan do (and vice versa). Of course it doesn't get sold like that in reality, but that is how it is. The only reason tariffs are very resilient is that the benefits of free trade are spread out over all consumers, whereas the 'benefits' of protection are concentrated in the hands of a select few industries, who are very vocal and influential.

        The main reason WTO (and multilateral trade agreements) helps is that it enables govts to have a reason to stand up to the vested interests.

        I think both El Freako and Dan are right, because the US approach has been very mixed, with fast track being agreed, and the call for tariffs to be lowered recently existing alongside stupid caving in on aid for farmers and the steel industry.

        Comment

        • #139
          pchang: Nice to see you around. You still working for Stockpoint? I noticed that they are now branded Pinnacor.

          "It’s remarkable how Japan’s most successful companies stand outside of this Gordian knot. (eg: Sony, Toyota)"

          Colon: I wouldn't include Sony in that list, even though they are a quality company. They just don't make any money. Little revenue growth.
          Last edited by DanS; December 6, 2002, 12:57.
          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

          Comment

          • #140
            Spike: Thanks for the reminder on what's important here. It would be useful, although a little daunting, to take a look at the tarrif levels under Clinton and G.W. Bush versus their predecessors.
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

            Comment

            • #141
              DanS,

              Re the productivity data, three points.

              One, it's interesting to note how the US's definition of productivity flatters the US rate - calculating productivity using the method used in the EU shows a 3.4% gain on the year to Q3 2002 compared to the 5.8% reported by the BLS.

              Second this figure is helped by falling hours of work -1.8% over the year, the long-term trend (1990-2000) is of static working hours.

              Thirdly what the hell is happening to the labour force in the US? - it shows growth of only 0.3% over the year (and that follows two years of below trend growth as well).

              A combination of falling hours and activity rates is just what happened to Europe in the 1980's.
              19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

              Comment

              • #142
                "Thirdly what the hell is happening to the labour force in the US? - it shows growth of only 0.3% over the year (and that follows two years of below trend growth as well)."

                Lord knows. Maybe everybody is buying a bunker and hunkering down for the end of days.

                "One, it's interesting to note how the US's definition of productivity flatters the US rate"

                If true, wouldn't that also impact the numbers in the past as well? No matter what the numbers are, we haven't seen these kind of numbers in 30 years.

                "Second this figure is helped by falling hours of work -1.8% over the year, the long-term trend (1990-2000) is of static working hours."

                I don't know what to make of it. Temporary, I would guess. Labor unit costs are plummeting as well, although at a slower rate than earlier in the year.
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                Comment

                • #143
                  Hershell finally got the crash he was waiting for, courtesy of the Federal Reserve...

                  404: Page Not Found
                  http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/front/RTGAM/20021206/wplane1206/Front/homeBN/breakingnews
                  Page not found
                  Last edited by DanS; December 6, 2002, 14:20.
                  I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                  Comment

                  • #144
                    Originally posted by DanS
                    If true, wouldn't that also impact the numbers in the past as well? No matter what the numbers are, we haven't seen these kind of numbers in 30 years.
                    Well looking at the data (which I am still compiling as I post - im back to 1977 now ) the current 3.4% annual rise was last beaten in Q1 1984 when the rise was 3.9%, so 18 years not 30.
                    19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

                    Comment

                    • #145
                      Here is a spreadsheet of GDP per worker (the standard EU measure of productivity) for the US, quarterly data 1948-2002 (with forecasts for Q4 assuming no change in employment in December and 2% annualized growth in Q4).
                      Attached Files
                      Last edited by el freako; December 6, 2002, 16:50.
                      19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

                      Comment

                      • #146
                        What's the justification for using GDP/worker rather than GDP/hour worked?
                        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                        Comment

                        • #147
                          Why would EU use either measure? Attributing all productivity gains to labor overstates labor productivity. Why not use multifactor? Or has this already been beaten to death on one of these threads?
                          Old posters never die.
                          They j.u.s.t..f..a..d..e...a...w...a...y....

                          Comment

                          • #148
                            Originally posted by DanS

                            Colon: I wouldn't include Sony in that list, even though they are a quality company. They just don't make any money. Little revenue growth.
                            I think you're taking a very narrow view there. It's true sales growth has been slow of the late, and that the past two bookyears net profits were thin. However profits have been rebounding in the current bookyear and Sony has been performing better than its Japanese competitors. (with exception of Canon, which isn't a typical Japanese firm either)

                            If true, wouldn't that also impact the numbers in the past as well? No matter what the numbers are, we haven't seen these kind of numbers in 30 years.
                            There has been the 'invention' of hedonic deflators.

                            But what's the point you're trying to make wrt productivity growth anyway?
                            DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

                            Comment

                            • #149
                              "But what's the point you're trying to make wrt productivity growth anyway?"

                              It's high.
                              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                              Comment

                              • #150
                                So? Why should I care?
                                DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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