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Originally posted by Saras
Oh, and your profile says you're born in 1978.
"if you studied economics for as long as I have "
???
Oh, and your profile says you're born in 1978.
"if you studied economics for as long as I have "
???
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Yes. -
Read through this thread and the last.Originally posted by Saras
Did I miss something? Doc, you say you identified misconceptions? Where?Comment
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"I don't have a copy of the article (as I said before it was a journalistic piece), but I can send you a hard copy if you really want, though it just makes the points I made in the thread. My academic work is in econometric modelling of labour markets..."
We have a couple of journals at the library, so probably a reference will do.
"...believe me I am not being up my own ass when I say I will not discuss it with you."
Who knows ? Maybe I agree with you ?
"you have a surprising amount of knowledge of facts for a non-economist but no structure, which is why you have misconceptions."
Or maybe I have a different structure for those facts ?
"should we discuss a legal issue and you said to me "Sorry, you've misunderstood that, in fact it's like this _insert legal explanation_", I would accept you have more insight"
That is only reasonable if I provide more facts than you have available. If you lack a legal text or a key court case, yes. If it relates to the interpretation and understanding of those, it is in no way a foregone conclusion that my understanding is better.
"Your inability to admit my posts on deflation/monetary targeting/NAIRU/Solow model/various monetary policy issues all provided you any insight that you had previously not considered is, quite frankly, in my opinion unbelievable."
Well let's see if Saras finds your corrections to my misconceptions...
"if you studied economics for as long as I have"
So you started before 1990 ?“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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You have some nerve. You walk in here thinking us you can treat us like little schoolkids, then you're bewildered we happen not to like or need that, and finally you put up some charade and think you can fool anyone with that.Originally posted by DrSpike
Read through this thread and the last.
And if you think that's abuse, wait until you really piss me off.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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And FYI, all the people you've been talking to in this topic have never seen me like this. I know that's circular logic, but might it not cross your thoughts for one second that your behaviour causes me to be this 'abusive' towards you?DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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Lol I would be the first to admit my style can be abasive when challenged, as indeed I have admitted before. However the vast majority of my posts are civil responses to questions posed......like the time I spent providing you with an answer to your last questions.....and you came back with abuse.Originally posted by Colon
And FYI, all the people you've been talking to in this topic have never seen me like this. I know that's circular logic, but might it not cross your thoughts for one second that your behaviour causes me to be this 'abusive' towards you?
I regret you feel that way........I am abrasive at times, but my intention was always to raise the level of understanding amongst some people I saw realised the importance of the sorts of issues we have discussed.
Good luck in your future economic studies, should your path take that direction.Comment
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No, you've pretty much convinced me macro-economists are a crowd I don't want to be part of.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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"My academic work is in econometric modelling of labour markets...."
I loooove labour markets. So why don't you just copy and paste your publication list ? Pretty please ?
PS: Colon, checked your PMs at CG ?“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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"Concern about deflation in Japan still sounds silly to a guy who grew up hearing how the Japanese economy was totally export driven and domestic consumer goods were all priced through the roof. "
This circumstance seems to no longer be the case, at least anecdotally in selected industries. In the last generation of products, domestic elecronics sold at 1/2 the price of the export product. There was a lot of opportunity to pay a purchaser 5% to buy domestically and then export the product to you.
In the latest generation, the difference is less. Maybe 2/3rd the price. Then figure future dollar depreciation and we're starting to see something loosely resembling rational pricing...
On another subject, here's a good article about American labor markets and immigration. Demographers have been going nuts with the cornucopia of Census 2000 for the last year or so, and we're likely to see more detailed studies of this type...
Also wrt demographics, here's a good article about the shortage of marriageable women in India due to sex selective abortions. India's future population pyramid looks excellent, but things like this could screw it all up easy...
Edit: Just as soon as I start talking about dollar depreciation against the Yen, I get contradicted by the Japanese finance minister who says 150Y/$.
But this just doesn't make any sense to me. Hopefully, the dollar will have an orderly, modest depreciation.Last edited by DanS; December 2, 2002, 12:38.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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And yes, I haven't seen these kinds of fireworks since the MBT threads.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Sorry to bombard the thread with articles, but...
The following is a call by Japan to "reflate" the global economy.
I don't agree with it at all (except the Japan part), but don't really have an overriding, educated context.
The only point I would raise is that Japan can't rely on the US (buy more) or China (raise export prices) to pull its coals out of the fire. The US economy is enjoying cheap goods from China, thank you very much, and if Japan can't compete in their target markets, they need to find more profitable target markets.
I saw a GE DVD/VCR combo for $75 in the weekend circulars, for instance--I was floored. This combo probably contained no Japanese parts. Probably some American intellectual property for Malaysian or Taiwanese fabbed integrated circuits. Maybe a couple of South Korean parts, such as memory. Assembled in Chinese factories owned by Taiwanese businessmen. We couldn't beat Japan long ago and now China on some things, so we joined them...
I agree that Japan should peg a high inflation figure and do whatever it takes to hit it, but why the US and Europe?Last edited by DanS; December 2, 2002, 13:30.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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This article is a case-in-point of why I dislike the Economist. The article about what Sten/Colon are discussing wrt to two-tiered pricing is based in part on the ridiculous assertion that "[u]nder Bill Clinton and the younger George Bush, America has drifted further from its commitment to global free trade, and is thus less able to criticise others."
What a load of crap. Why does the Economist sometimes spout stuff that obviously isn't so? Not a week ago, the US concluded a Free Trade Agreement with Singapore and advocated removal of all tarrifs on manufactured goods globally by 2015. Clinton put through NAFTA and also worked hard on free trade, even though he didn't have fast-track negotiating authority from the congress.Last edited by DanS; December 2, 2002, 14:37.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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DanS,
A world where the US (or anyone else for that matter) has lots bilateral deals is less likely to create more trade than if it negociated multilaterally.
A lot of bilateral deals just divert trade - whereas multilateral deals almost always create trade.
The tarrifs on manufactured goods are already very low - and anyway tarrifs are not the US's 'chosen weapon' when it comes to trade protection, now if the US was advocating a reduction in 'anti-dumping' actions....19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
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ef: You would agree with me that the Economist is talking out of its ass with that comment, right?
"now if the US was advocating a reduction in 'anti-dumping' actions"
How many anti-dumping actions has the US taken recently?
"A lot of bilateral deals just divert trade - whereas multilateral deals almost always create trade."
There seems to be a logjam at the global level. Some multilateral deals will help with that logjam. IOW, these are tactical moves.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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I don’t like the first FT comment at all, it has too many misconceptions and platitudes.
“The entry of emerging market economies - such as China and other east Asian nations - into the global trading system is a powerful additional deflationary force. Their combined supply capacity has been exerting downward pressure on the prices of goods in industrialised economies.”
This ignores that those countries demand is entering the global trading as well as their supply. China is a market as well as a competitor, as other Asian countries already have been discovering. The problem is not China’s supply capacity on itself but that they have an overcapacity relative to their domestic demand. I think this problem will diminish as China is restructuring it’s state industries.
“This is particularly true when the financial sector has been damaged, as in Japan. In order to cope with economic stagnation, there has been aggressive fiscal expansion since the early 1990s. Several years after the collapse of the bubble, the Bank of Japan belatedly shifted to easy monetary policy. Then it gradually guided the short-term money market rate below the discount rate, but without much success in stopping price deflation, let alone reviving economic activity.”
I’m really unconvinced that the BOJ is to blame, even if it did react to slowly you can only say that with benefit of hindsight. Japan’s economy was going down slower than US’ lately so it only seems logical they reacted more slowly.
The real blame IMHO lies at the intertwining of interests between the commercial banks, the LDP and industry. It’s remarkable how Japan’s most successful companies stand outside of this Gordian knot. (eg: Sony, Toyota)
“Actual inflation may be 1-2 percentage points below what the indices show. A central bank should maintain a buffer zone to reduce the risk of inflation entering negative territory. Inflation targets should therefore be set at a level that minimises the risk of deflation. For the European Central Bank the target could be 2-3 per cent a year. The BoJ's target should be higher.”
Firstly, actual inflation may also be 1-2% above what the indexes show, due liberal use of deflators (taking into account quality improvements) while not taking into account of quality diminishments (particularly an issue in the service sectors). Mrs Baum mentioned this in the commentary I posted about above.
Secondly, ECB’s inflation target in effect has been 2-3%. It hasn’t increased rates even though HICP has been above 2% for a very long time already. Core inflation has even been on a slightly more upward trend than a downward one.
As a reminder, wage growth is still very healthy in both the EU and the US, and where wages go service prices tend to follow. (that service inflation is strong in both economies indicates this)
In principle M3 growth target in the Eurozone is 4.5%, but the actual growth has always been higher than that and currently it’s even standing at 7%. On what the criticism of an overly tight ECB is based is a mystery to me.
“If Beijing considers the second option more costly than the first, it should join the advanced countries in their efforts towards reflation. It is China's responsibility, and its interest as the largest emerging market economy, to contribute to global stability jointly with the US, Europe and Japan.
The writers are vice-minister and deputy vice-minister for international affairs at the Japanese ministry of finance”
Yeah, if I were a Japanese politician I’d really love to see my regional rival cut in its production capacity as well.
[edit] I'm talking about the second FT article Dan posted.Last edited by Colon™; December 4, 2002, 08:56.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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