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  • #106
    Hmm, not so much progress then.

    But, the future battleground is now well defined, which is a good step.

    I will return to your last post anon. For now I must stop using this thread as an excuse not to think about my work.

    Comment

    • #107
      "Hmm, not so much progress then."

      Exactly zero from your POV. I know the standard economic thinking, so reiterating it won't have much effect apart from being tiring.

      Try something unusual. Say, explain how money velocity and asset markets are connected IYO.

      Edit: I should add that the key to the disagreement is the relevance of monetary aggregates; while I do not set them as an absolute guide I think they are more relevant than you think they are, especially taken together with the current account balance, savings/financing rates and asset price developments. All that sent a clear message.
      Last edited by HershOstropoler; November 27, 2002, 08:06.
      “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

      Comment

      • #108
        Originally posted by HershOstropoler
        "Hmm, not so much progress then."

        Exactly zero from your POV. I know the standard economic thinking, so reiterating it won't have much effect apart from being tiring.
        That's not quite true.......I definitely made a lot of progress in the initial deflation debate. And as I'm sure you would agree there are inevitably limits to your knowledge of 'standard economic thinking', and you can't criticise what you don't fully understand. It's important to understand why the 'standard' position differs from yours, and in doing so get some perspective on your criticisms. Hopefully I'm helping a bit in that regard, even if our prior fights lead to you to state otherwise. I don't care what you state though.....my agenda is solely in raising the knowledge of those who care enough to think about issues that everyone should care about IMO.

        Enough. I'm closing my mail client. The HOD will be after me if I don't finish writing this exam paper today.

        Comment

        • #109
          "I definitely made a lot of progress in the initial deflation debate."

          Not that I know of. You may have gained a clearer picture of my views, but they haven't changed.

          "And as I'm sure you would agree there are inevitably limits to your knowledge of 'standard economic thinking'..."

          There are inevitably limits to every knowledge, DrObvious. Even, dare you think it, yours. However everything you produced in your capacity as a living econ textbook was easily within those limits as far as I'm concerned.
          “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

          Comment

          • #110
            This thread is definately better than the MBT thread!



            By the way, I haven't read the full analysis of Bernanke's speech by my contemporaries, but I think the Fed would have to be very careful in their choice of technique if they wanted to start playing more (coupon passes) further out on the long end of the yield curve. Targeting yield levels (like currency pegs) would be a very bad idea, but just buying some paper periodically might help a little. Of course we have seen lately (at least through early October) that lower Treasury yields can actually drive money away from corporations as investors chase the performance momentum of Govy bonds. The steep shape of today's yield curve in the States (300bp from 2yr to 30yr) says that the Fed is stepping on the gas pretty hard and we had better hold on when the wheels catch.

            Concern about deflation in Japan still sounds silly to a guy who grew up hearing how the Japanese economy was totally export driven and domestic consumer goods were all priced through the roof. It seems to me that what they have needed for a while is aggressive deflation so that goods are appropriately priced. But that would be hard for a protectionist state to institute.


            [Rant mode] Why doesn't anyone understand what the survey numbers like the Chicago Purchasing Manager Index mean. It annoys the hell out of me to hear how Prices Paid declined when it really accelerated at a slightly slower rate, etc...
            Last edited by Sten Sture; November 27, 2002, 19:38.
            Be the bid!

            Comment

            • #111
              Originally posted by DrSpike
              Colon:

              Your post confused me.......not sure about the purpose of my first quote in your post (*edit* unless you were agreeing with my earlier points - I didn't consider that on first reading ). Did I say something about forecasting, or is it just a general query?
              No, _I_ said something about forecasting. I had to slap my post regarding forecasting repeatedly in your face remember?

              But anyway I read the article. It doesn't say anything controversial.......
              My point was that forecastes are very unreliable and that therefore basing policies on them has plenty of risks attached.

              Regarding the targetting of monetary aggregates you said it all. If I had had those numbers handy I would have posted them along with the post that you quote.
              I didn't have them handy. I looked up the M3 data at the site of the Federal Reserve and then calculated the growth. Doing some research yourself, instead of parroting handbooks, is part of economics too ya know.

              Quick overview of the issues for any interested:
              You could just as well tell everyone to buy Gordon's handbook so that you won't have to tire yourself with all this typing.
              DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

              Comment

              • #112
                Originally posted by Sten Sture
                Concern about deflation in Japan still sounds silly to a guy who grew up hearing how the Japanese economy was totally export driven and domestic consumer goods were all priced through the roof.
                I think there's more myth than truth to that. During the 60's there was hardly any inflation in Japan from 1961 to 1970, while exports grew 232%. It was due productivity gains that the growth of output could be sustained without spiralling inflation.
                It could only have been export-driven, if the growth of exports allowed such scale of economies that higher output could be sustained without price hikes, but that seems a bit questionable.
                DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

                Comment

                • #113
                  Originally posted by Colon

                  I didn't have them handy. I looked up the M3 data at the site of the Federal Reserve and then calculated the growth. Doing some research yourself, instead of parroting handbooks, is part of economics too ya know.

                  You could just as well tell everyone to buy Gordon's handbook so that you won't have to tire yourself with all this typing.
                  For god's sake......I posted some helpful info relevant to the debate (largely because another poster PM'ed me to encourage me not to just give up) for anyone to read (or not), and I just get abuse.

                  If people in this thread knew all the basic boring stuff then sure, we could discuss the sorts of issues I discuss with my colleagues, like my actual research; I'd love that. But you don't, and that isn't a bad reflection on anyone that posts here - it is just a fact. So I spend time talking about core macro material - I do that because it is the most important stuff to understand, that is precisely why it is core material.

                  As an aside to Roland, please reread the deflation debate. You started with a statement about deflation not being a problem in Japan, and went on to display a flawed understanding of some key points - it is insulting for you to suggest the discussion we had there did not raise your understanding of the issues in any way.

                  I can't be assed with this any more. I enjoy the debating, part of which is the cut and thrust of aspersions, but if I am just going to be constantly berated for posting about orthodox economic thought because a) you already know it, Roland or b) you could just look it up anyway, Colon, then there isn't much point. Of course neither a) nor b) are actually true, as these threads have quite clearly shown, but that seems not to matter.

                  Comment

                  • #114
                    "You started with a statement about deflation not being a problem in Japan, and went on to display a flawed understanding of some key points"

                    Sigh....

                    You started with a run of the mill deflation argument. IIRC just before the point you refer to, I asked you to explain on that basis the deflationary recessions pre WW II. When you didn't I tried to lure you out of the reserve with the malinvestment liquidation thing (has some merit IMO, but I know it drives your ilk nuts), but it didn't work.

                    "it is insulting for you to suggest the discussion we had there did not raise your understanding of the issues in any way."

                    I'm not trying to insult you or troll you, but what you said was in no way new to me. Absolutely honestly.

                    "we could discuss the sorts of issues I discuss with my colleagues, like my actual research; I'd love that."

                    How about just giving it a try, instead of assuming that we are all clueless ? If it goes over our heads we'll let you know.

                    You mentioned an article of yours some way back. I asked you for a reference - nothing.
                    “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

                    Comment

                    • #115
                      Spikey, why don't you accept that we actually *know* the basics? Even if it isn't true, let us live in our blissful ignorance, and debate like you debate with your colleagues.

                      That we require your stamp of approval before you'll debate with us is just ridiculous.
                      DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

                      Comment

                      • #116
                        Originally posted by Colon

                        That we require your stamp of approval before you'll debate with us is just ridiculous.
                        Agreed.

                        However, "the basics" covers a huge area of material, and I'm sorry (I know this will rile you) but neither of you have any economic background that I am aware of. Now you can read journalistic articles, maybe even venture towards more technical material at times, but you are not economists, and that shows in a lot of the posts that you make. What is more there is no way we could discuss my work. That is not meant as an insult, I'm sure if you studied economics for as long as I have we could have that discussion - but you haven't.

                        However there is a huge amount of practical economics I can talk about, but when I correct your misconceptions I (quite rightly) get asked how I know what I know. Then I explain the models that economists use to think about the issue under discussion and I get accused of hiding behind textbooks, and being blinkered and orthodox.

                        Let me be clear. Every single one of the misconceptions I have identified whilst posting here would be identified by any other professional economist. You can choose to believe that you have more insight than professional economists, and hence it is they that are wrong not you, but I doubt even Roland believes that in his heart......it is just ludicrous.

                        But anyway, it doesn't matter, it seems clear you two do not wish my input, and that is fine. Carry on the way you are now......hell I prefer that to the many people I know who don't give a damn about economic issues, that is why I started posting here in the first place - I thought I could make a difference. But no matter, carry on, and I wish you both well.

                        Simon

                        Comment

                        • #117
                          Let's get to the heart of the matter:

                          "What is more there is no way we could discuss my work."

                          Indeed, we can't discuss your work as we don't know it. Even if you do not want to discuss it, I'm interested in what you write, esp on deflation (trap) issues. So, why don't you tell me the reference ? PM me if you want.

                          "You can choose to believe that you have more insight than professional economists, and hence it is they that are wrong not you, but I doubt even Roland believes that in his heart......it is just ludicrous."

                          It is ludicrous to put so much value on "professional" in social sciences. I have no such prejudice or should I say illusion about my profession - maybe we should find us some juicy legal issue....

                          "if you studied economics for as long as I have we could have that discussion - but you haven't."

                          How can we know ?
                          “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

                          Comment

                          • #118
                            Did I miss something? Doc, you say you identified misconceptions? Where?
                            Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
                            Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
                            Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

                            Comment

                            • #119
                              Oh, and your profile says you're born in 1978.

                              "if you studied economics for as long as I have "

                              ???
                              Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
                              Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
                              Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

                              Comment

                              • #120
                                Originally posted by HershOstropoler
                                Indeed, we can't discuss your work as we don't know it. Even if you do not want to discuss it, I'm interested in what you write, esp on deflation (trap) issues. So, why don't you tell me the reference ? PM me if you want.

                                "You can choose to believe that you have more insight than professional economists, and hence it is they that are wrong not you, but I doubt even Roland believes that in his heart......it is just ludicrous."

                                It is ludicrous to put so much value on "professional" in social sciences. I have no such prejudice or should I say illusion about my profession - maybe we should find us some juicy legal issue....
                                Why are you interested in the blinkered orthodox nonsense that I write? I don't have a copy of the article (as I said before it was a journalistic piece), but I can send you a hard copy if you really want, though it just makes the points I made in the thread. My academic work is in econometric modelling of labour markets......believe me I am not being up my own ass when I say I will not discuss it with you. Again I can send you papers if you doubt I have any academic credentials, as you have implied several times.

                                To your second point:

                                It is definitely not wrong to place emphasis on 'professional' with the social science of economics. Economics is a technical subject; you have a surprising amount of knowledge of facts for a non-economist but no structure, which is why you have misconceptions. It was my belief I could help, but since you believe there is no value in an economist's way of analysing issues, and that all opinions are equally valid, I do not think so any more.

                                And that's just it Roland: should we discuss a legal issue and you said to me "Sorry, you've misunderstood that, in fact it's like this _insert legal explanation_", I would accept you have more insight and go about my business with a new slightly better understanding of the legal system. I am intellectually secure, I know my skills, and I know my limitations. Your inability to admit my posts on deflation/monetary targeting/NAIRU/Solow model/various monetary policy issues all provided you any insight that you had previously not considered is, quite frankly, in my opinion unbelievable.

                                Comment

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