Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 12

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
Collapse
 
  • Page of 34
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
Previous 1 10 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 30 34 template Next
  • #286
    Well, OK, remove the "that will in all likelihood work themselves out without major catastrophe". It's still a nice summary.

    You subscribe to the "no pain, no gain" school of economic thought.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

    Comment

    • #287
      Originally posted by DanS
      "So your position, if I understand it, is that a "very bad recession" in your words is preferable to the current situation, with a very mild downturn, and some imbalances that will in all likelihood work themselves out without major catastrophe."
      So Dan.

      Lets keep it neat and postulate that fed policy averted a potential recession at the cost of building up some imbalances. Do you feel that recession should have been experienced to avoid the current imbalances and the chance (albeit small) of a Japanese scenario?

      Comment

      • #288
        "I gave you my opinion, just below trend (say 0.5% below if you want a number) for 1 year then trend growth."

        So 10 % 2003-2005 ? What about the output gap ? No catch-up ?

        "The question is, postulating that I am right do you accept that fed policy was correct"

        Post 2000 yes, before no.
        “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

        Comment

        • #289
          To confirm Roland: should my scenario be realised you will accept that post 2000 expansionary policy was necessary to avert a recession that otherwise would have happened, and that your criticism of fed policy from this time period would in those circumstances be incorrect?

          Comment

          • #290
            Spike: Good God no. Inviting recession, except in the direst of circumstances ('81-'82) seems like asking for pain. I thank my lucky stars for looking back on ~3% growth. In context, I'd say we're kicking ass.

            Let's line up those imbalances...

            1) Stock market bubble... We're working through it very orderly;
            2) Real estate bubble... A mixed bag, SF already mostly corrected;
            3) Current Account deficit... Orderly dollar depreciation in progress;
            4) Low savings... Don't know what to say about this
            5) Capital spending... Slowly recovering
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

            Comment

            • #291
              "necessary to avert" is uncontested anyway. So I'd say:

              "Should your scenario be realised over the next few years I will accept that post 2000 expansionary policy to avert a recession that otherwise would have happened was the right choice."
              “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

              Comment

              • #292
                Originally posted by HershOstropoler

                "Should your scenario be realised over the next few years I will accept that post 2000 expansionary policy to avert a recession that otherwise would have happened was the right choice."
                BINGO!!!!!

                I will remember this......I have a long memory.

                DanS: Good chap.

                Comment

                • #293
                  I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                  Comment

                  • #294
                    Good. What's your counteroffer ?
                    “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

                    Comment

                    • #295
                      The one I made earlier. I know you are not predicting 100% chance of Japan happening in the US, but if it does you are right and I am wrong.

                      'Snot gonna happen though.

                      And what is more, most people would put the probability of Japan at far less than 50/50.........I find it hard to believe that even a masochist such as yourself would bear a recession just to avoid a 25% (pretty generous even at that) chance of Japan.

                      Unless things really start to move the way you predicted I don't want to see any more criticism of post 2000 monetary policy. We will leave pre-2000 for another day.

                      Comment

                      • #296
                        "Unless things really start to move the way you predicted I don't want to see any more criticism of post 2000 monetary policy."

                        Like you can forbid my mouth.
                        “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

                        Comment

                        • #297
                          Well it is a free country.

                          Say, are you a sado-masochist or just a masochist?

                          Comment

                          • #298
                            I'm just a realist.
                            “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

                            Comment

                            • #299
                              We'll see.

                              Say where is the cutoff point probability wise?

                              So you think a "very bad recession" would have been preferable to a 50/50 chance of a Japanese slump.

                              Give me the probability of such a slump conditional upon actual policy that would be necessary to make you indifferent between masochistically bearing the recession and taking the chance of a slump.

                              We can then use this probability, ex ante, as a test of the quality of your opinions.

                              Comment

                              • #300
                                "Give me the probability of such a slump conditional upon actual policy that would be necessary to make you indifferent between masochistically bearing the recession and taking the chance of a slump."

                                You seem to think there is only a cost of recession. There's also a cost of desperately avoiding a recession that is not induced by a tightening CB but by an artificial boom running out of steam.

                                "I find it hard to believe that even a masochist such as yourself would bear a recession just to avoid a 25% (pretty generous even at that) chance of Japan."

                                Based on your assumptions probably not. Based on my assumptions the recession is not a masochistic choice, but like the question of going to the dentist or labouring with the toothache.
                                “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

                                Comment

                                Previous 1 10 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 30 34 template Next
                                Working...
                                X