Rugby - The Ball's Out!

[finbar]

Originally posted by Havak
Nope, no cold feet. Nor is it related in any way to my total belief that we are a better side than any of the tri-nations visitors. I still think we are the best side that will be playing anywhere in the UK before the end of the year 2002.

But you still think England should have a points start? The logic defeats me.

My concern is solely that, despite your assertions, you have set aside the sensible way margins have been set thus far simply because England are involved One might even suggest it is a prime case of the SH changing the laws as they go along.

As I said, I've always calculated the margins the same way - recent form, team make up, and where the game is played. History is what it is - history. Particularly when it's - in the England -v- ABs case - a minimum of 3 years old.

Check the stats – no way at all is this a straight win situation. England warrant a substantial start. You can’t ignore history at the drop of a hat.

I can and will ignore stats - or history, if you like - when the most recent reference is 3 years old.

Nonsense – retroactive history even. My spreads for example were all factored on a ten match history weighted by world rankings.

Yours might have been, mine haven't been. A ten match history between England and the ABs? That takes us back to June 1, 1985.

Could it be that the ‘mighty’ All Blacks can’t overcome any kind of spread start?

I think you'll beat them. I think I suggested giving them 7 1/2 points start.

I remind you NZ strength in depth is closer to the English model than the Australian one – a third string NZ side is still a good team. Whether they are good enough…

With those AB halves? I know you are positively salivating.

[finbar]

Read this and weep, Cal!

Sorry, Cal, I just checked my FoxSports rugby programming over the next few weeks -

This Saturday night: Wallabies -v- Ireland live, followed by a delayed showing of England -v- ABs.

16/11: Scotland -v- Springboks followed by England -v- Wallabies.

23/11: Italy -v- Wallabies followed by England -v- Springboks followed by Wales -v- ABs.

All I'm missing is seeing France!

[LDiCesare]

I agree a margin for England/ABs of 7 1/2 would make me switch sides and bet 10 on the ABs instead of England. So if noone wants to back NZ on straight win, such a margin would be OK for me. Of course, Havak wouldn't like it if Endland wins by 6 points.
I can't in any honesty put a margin for France match, however.
So here are my bets:
10 on France (straight win - or almost anything else reasonable), 10 on Ireland (7 1/2 margin), 10 on England (if straight win) or NZ (if 7 1/2 margin for England).
Finbar, don't be too sad. France's is very probably the only match I will not miss.

[Tamerlin]

Originally posted by LDiCesare
Finbar, don't be too sad. France's is very probably the only match I will not miss.

So do I, England versus New Zealand is scheduled on a private channel I have no access to for a few days more.

[finbar]

Originally posted by LDiCesare
I agree a margin for England/ABs of 7 1/2 would make me switch sides and bet 10 on the ABs instead of England. So if noone wants to back NZ on straight win, such a margin would be OK for me. Of course, Havak wouldn't like it if Endland wins by 6 points.
I can't in any honesty put a margin for France match, however.
So here are my bets:
10 on France (straight win - or almost anything else reasonable), 10 on Ireland (7 1/2 margin), 10 on England (if straight win) or NZ (if 7 1/2 margin for England).

I'm not quite clear on this - who do you think should be favourites out of England and the ABs?

Finbar, don't be too sad. France's is very probably the only match I will not miss.

I'd dearly love to see them play.

[finbar]

Originally posted by Tamerlin


So do I, England versus New Zealand is scheduled on a private channel I have no access to for a few days more.

That's odd. I thought all the Test matches would be on the same network.

[LDiCesare]

I'm not quite clear on this - who do you think should be favourites out of England and the ABs?

I think England will win, but by a short margin, like 7 points at most. So any margin with head start for England or less than 7 for teh AB, I bet England. More than 7 points head start for NZ, I bet NZ.

[finbar]

Originally posted by LDiCesare

I think England will win, but by a short margin, like 7 points at most. So any margin with head start for England or less than 7 for teh AB, I bet England. More than 7 points head start for NZ, I bet NZ.

Okay. Gotcha. I think I suggested 7 1/2. You're suggesting 6 1/2.

[Havak]

But you still think England should have a points start? The logic defeats me.

Careful grammar on my part Finbar. You should have picked it.

We are a better side than any of our tri-nations ‘visitors’. I didn’t claim we were automatically better than them beyond being our current ‘visitors’. Neither yourselves or the ABs have turned up with full strengths sides – and comparing England to your full strength sides – 3rd rank to 2nd and 1st places – we get the start?

These might be weakened sides but if they wear the shirt and use the name they represent the fuller side do they not?

Crafty of Mitchell – he cannot lose. If we win he brought a development team and it means nothing. If we lose his second string has beaten almost our first choice side. Tricky devil!

As I said, I've always calculated the margins the same way

And I’ve always done it the other way. I have picked the winner on many occasions only to fall victim to the spread by one or two points after all.

I can and will ignore stats - or history, if you like - when the most recent reference is 3 years old.

I see your point – but it’s not our fault – we extend an invite each and every year to them!

Yours might have been, mine haven't been. A ten match history between England and the ABs? That takes us back to June 1, 1985.

And coincidentally results in a massive start for England.

Did I, just possibly, get you to bite and be serious on the spreads?

If so feel free to mention cricket as much as you like from now on.

I think you'll beat them. I think I suggested giving them 7 1/2 points start.

I can’t wear that – the AB hoodoo needs breaking in our players minds. A two score margin is over generous I think. Plus, most importantly, I want to win this time on my bet!!!

With those AB halves? I know you are positively salivating.

They look weak – but the Dawson-Wilko link is rusty – Dawson has only just forced back in the team. Plus Dawson takes suicidal options some times. Wilko is much more solid than Spencer though – less chance of ‘brain-fades’ for us.

For the sake of thread harmony I will wear the outrageous 6.5 points start for the 'poor' All Blacks.

[Caligastia]

Re: Read this and weep, Cal!

Originally posted by finbar
Sorry, Cal, I just checked my FoxSports rugby programming over the next few weeks -

All I'm missing is seeing France!

Have a look at my schedule for the next 2 weeks

http://www.foxsportsworld.com/world/pdf/fsw45.pdf

http://www.foxsportsworld.com/world/pdf/fsw46.pdf

Originally posted by Havak
For the sake of thread harmony I will wear the outrageous 6.5 points start for the 'poor' All Blacks.

How gracious of you!

If you think the margin is that unfair though, you could always bet on the All Blacks.

[Havak]

I'm afraid my dedicated rugby patriotism does not allow that. I could never "do a Finbar" as I think backing the other side is known?

Next you will be suggesting I back the Wallabies.

Mind you Finbar may spot them a 21 point head start next week the way things are going.

I see Brooke, Dowd and Kronfeld say it is going to be very hard for your boys up front. Fancy that eh?

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by Havak
I see Brooke, Dowd and Kronfeld say it is going to be very hard for your boys up front. Fancy that eh?

ahh..what do they know? Bloody traitors.

[Tamerlin]

Originally posted by finbar
That's odd. I thought all the Test matches would be on the same network.

Audience rate is the key. France-South Africa is scheduled on a public network (France 2) and England-New Zealand on a private channel called Canal+.

[finbar]

Originally posted by Havak
Careful grammar on my part Finbar. You should have picked it.

Damn! I've been so offended by some of the grammar in the past that I now tend to speed read to avoid conniptions.

We are a better side than any of our tri-nations ‘visitors’. I didn’t claim we were automatically better than them beyond being our current ‘visitors’. Neither yourselves or the ABs have turned up with full strengths sides – and comparing England to your full strength sides – 3rd rank to 2nd and 1st places – we get the start?

These might be weakened sides but if they wear the shirt and use the name they represent the fuller side do they not?

M-hm. Paddy has red hair, Paddy is Irish, therefore Irishmen have red hair. I vaguely recall the perils of that sort of deduction from my Year 8 school days.

Crafty of Mitchell – he cannot lose. If we win he brought a development team and it means nothing. If we lose his second string has beaten almost our first choice side. Tricky devil!

Well, yes. As I've said, it really makes some of these matches virtually trial games rather than bona fide Tests. Not necessarily a bad thing providing one of the teams is near full strength because it makes for interesting assessments.

And I’ve always done it the other way. I have picked the winner on many occasions only to fall victim to the spread by one or two points after all.

Picking a winner can be easy. Picking a margin requires finesse.

I see your point – but it’s not our fault – we extend an invite each and every year to them!

Given the NZRFU's oft-proven superlative judgement, it's likely they've thought the steam-ship trip to England a bit too long.

Did I, just possibly, get you to bite and be serious on the spreads?

No, I was merely marvelling at English logic. (See immediately below)

If so feel free to mention cricket as much as you like from now on.

The kind of English logic that had Nassar Hussein win the toss on a Brisbane wicket - where a second-string Queensland XI had just belted an English Test-strength bowling attack for 600+ - and send the oppo in to bat. In fact, I assumed Nassar had rung you for advice.

I can’t wear that – the AB hoodoo needs breaking in our players minds. A two score margin is over generous I think. Plus, most importantly, I want to win this time on my bet!!!

I say again - if you cannot beat this second-string AB team by a try and a penalty, there is something seriously wrong.

They look weak – but the Dawson-Wilko link is rusty – Dawson has only just forced back in the team. Plus Dawson takes suicidal options some times. Wilko is much more solid than Spencer though – less chance of ‘brain-fades’ for us.

The only time I've seen Carlos Spencer play well against strong opposition is at fullback where he can do his thing with relative freedom. His NPC final was - well, quixotic. He seemed to panic. Wilkinson is a pro. Dawson might not be a first choice - he was on the Lions tour, wasn't he? - but he's opposing a player who is yet to compete at a level beyond club football.

For the sake of thread harmony I will wear the outrageous 6.5 points start for the 'poor' All Blacks.

So how much of your hard-earned are you willing to risk?

[finbar]

Re: Re: Read this and weep, Cal!

Originally posted by Caligastia


Have a look at my schedule for the next 2 weeks

That's amazing. They obviously don't have the rights to the Tests.