Is there any scenario in which the Arabs defeat America in the current war?

[monkspider]

Is there any reasonably feasible scenario that anyone could think that would count as a "victory" for the Arabs against America? Not necessarily a victory on the battlefield, but some hypothetical scenario in which future historians would consider them the victors of this current war.

[Az]

I don't think so .

[SlowwHand]

Absolutely none. Zip, zero, notta.

[Jon Miller]

hmm, I will have to think on it

Jon Miller

[Felch]

If we capitulate to their demands to stop supporting our chief ally in the region (hint: not Egypt or Saudi Arabia) then they might consider that to be a victory.

Out war aims are different. We want them dead, while they want Israel dead. If the **** hits the fan we might both win.

[Faeelin]

If a WMD is used in AMerica?

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Faeelin
If a WMD is used in AMerica?

One already has been.

[Lord Merciless]

Originally posted by Faeelin
If a WMD is used in AMerica?

Expect the country to go radical.

Expect to see all Arabs locked up in internment camps.

Expect to see some fireworks in the Middle East and Pakistan.

Expect the US to become an empire.

[Zkribbler]

Yes.

The critical step for the terrorists is to change the perception of the war from being civilized nations vs. terrorism to being Christian & Jews vs. Muslims. If the terrorists can recruit the majority of the Muslim world to their side, they can cut off sufficient oil supplies to the West to bring about an ecnomic catastrophe. Moreover, the mere size of the conflict alone will cause a massive breakdown in world trade.

[Dauphin]

As I said, WMDs have been used against the US already.

So those things listed by LM should be happening, which they are.

[Kropotkin]

That the US has declared war against the entire ethnic arabic people was news to me, i guess that's a typical Bush-speach blunder in that case.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Sagacious Dolphin
As I said, WMDs have been used against the US already.

Why wasn't I informed of a NBC attack?

[Kontiki]

Obviously, military victory in any sense is not possible for the Arab states (not even getting into how loaded a statement it is to say that the US is fighting the Arabs). However, they could score other victories depending on how far the US is willing to pursue the war. I'm mainly thinking economic....

Here's something plausible: The US attacks Iraq unilaterally, not satisfying their allies or the majority of the American public of the absolute necessity. The war becomes protracted, fuelling anti-American sentiment around the Arab world (a quick US victory would definitely stir things up, but nothing pours salt into a wound like a lengthy conflict). IMHO, you would immediately see (and we're probably gonna anyway) a huge drop in the stock market. Depending on the duration and opposition to the conflict, there could be a further sell off by foreigners and, especially, wealthy Arabs of US stocks. Oil prices skyrocket, and, coupled with the burden of paying for the invasion itself (unlike the other Gulf War), the US economy goes into a nose dive that will make the last year look like the late 90's. Further, the possibility of increase terrorist attacks against US interests, especially abroad, will keep the markets down.

This is just something I thought of off the top of my head, and I guess you could argue that if this did happen, it would be less of an Arab victory than a nasty side-effect. Still, there is a great deal of economic damage that could be done by wealthy Arabs who hold US stock (and it's a lot), not to mention restricting oil production. Now, in the long run the US could probably overcome all of these problems, but it would likely require going imperial, occupying the majority of the ME and basically becoming entirely isolationist from an economic perspective. Europe ain't gonna like it, and while they are very unlikely to do anything militarily to stop the US, you can pretty much expect the world economy to go down the crapper for a while have a very different looking world afterward.

[Az]

What's with that perception that America somehow depends on arab oil ? Russia can increase production, America can actually produce , and not preserve it's own resourses.

[Lord Merciless]

They are not happening yet. But if New York get nuked for example, they will happen.

The Anthrax attacks were not carried out by terrorists, but by an eccentric and over-concerned American scientist.

Arabs would never win this contest. The worst that can happen to us is the US turning into a totalitarian empire and several million casualties. The worst that can happen to Arabs is the destruction of their civilization. No sane people want either of the 2 possibilities to become the reality.

Those Al-Qaeda fanatics were only banking on Christian democracies playing nice. But have they considered the possiblity that these "democracies" can go radical and play nasty?