The Offseason Baseball Thread

[Imran Siddiqui]

Wade Miller signed with Boston for one year, $1.5 million

WOW WOW WOW WOW!

Best pickup of the offseason, especially for the price! Miller is a great pitcher, and I wonder how Theo got him so cheap!

[Arrian]

Holy ****, I just saw that - it is a great signing. Anyway, the reason for bumping the thread:

I found some statistical analysis that has altered my opinion of Edgar Renteria, and makes LoA's stance on ditching Cabrera & signing Renteria less... hysterical:

If You Can't Beat 'em...: Remember who made the last out of the historic 2004 World Series? Of course you do--the same player who was up last in the 1997 Series, Edgar Renteria. Renteria swapped red jerseys this off-season, choosing to leave the Cardinals for a four-year, $40MM deal with Boston, with an $11MM team option for 2009. Renteria has been a little overrated ever since that single in the bottom of the ninth beat the Indians in Game Seven, and his spectacular performance in 2003 (.330/.394/.480, 75.3 VORP best among NL shortstops) reinforced that notion. The fact is, Renteria's established level of performance is much closer to his 2004 line of .287/.327/.401, which was good for a 27.3 VORP that ranked sixth among NL shortstops. Defensively, by most metrics Renteria comes out a little below average; he was -11 RAA last season, exactly average in 2003 and -14 in '02.

That's from Baseball Prospectus. I was, in fact, wowed by Renteria's 2003 numbers.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Only problem is that his 2002 numbers were .305/.364/.439, which are very good numbers as well (OPS+ of 116), so it isn't like he only had one good year. And he's still in his prime, with last year being the on off year for him since he turned 26.

[Arrian]

I'm not saying he's garbage. I'm just saying he may not be quite as good as I thought he was. 2003 was the year that stuck out in my mind when I was thinking about his stats, and the point is that it's a bad idea to pick a career as a way of evaluating a player.

Take Derek Jeter's 1999, for instance. Since then... valueable, sure, but it makes his contract look ludicrous.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

True, but Renteria has 2 solid back-to-back good seasons . This seasons dip doesn't mean he's going to where he was before he hit his prime.

As for Jeter, yes he's never reached the gaudy OPS+ of 161, but has been a solid OPS+ of ~120. And, come one, for the all the merchandise he sold (just by his mug alone), the Yanks were going to overpay him that much anyway.

[asleepathewheel]

Renteria at that price is ridiculous, really. He's a great player, for his position, no doubt, but at 10 per? no way jose.

And wade miller was so cheap because he refused treatment on his arm, or so I'veheard, and the thing has the potential of blowing at any time. Granted, pitchers blow out their arms at any time, but I guess the % is significantly higher.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well, look at the market. Hell, Orlando Cabrera, who has never had as good a year as Renteria's last three, is making $8 mil a year. The problem is that people are overpaying this offseason and that drives the price of everyone up.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Btw, the BIG signing of late is Carlos Beltan to the Mets. So the Mets have picked up Pedro and Beltran this off season. It can go two ways. Either they both play to their potential and the Mets make the playoffs, or they both break down and the Mets suck, once again. I think the former is more apt than the latter... especially for the upcoming year.

[Arrian]

Typical Mets. Sign a couple of big-ticket free agents and hope that will do the job. And yes, I'm cognizant of the fact that Steinbrenner thinks this way too. The difference is that the Mets are usually playing catchup to the Yanks.

Pedro is a big injury/decline risk.

Beltran isn't an injury risk, AFAIK, but I *do* think he's been somewhat overrated. He's definitely a very good player, but he isn't what he's been hyped to be lately.

I'm actually glad the Yankees did not land Beltran. This is *not* a logical reaction - this one's all emotion. Bernie Williams is one of my favorite Yankees. Watching them platoon him with Kenny ****ing Lofton last year was painful. What a travesty. If the Yanks had gotten Beltran... well, there is a replacement of star caliber - and it would be more understandable to relegate Bernie and his declining skills to the role of part-timer. I'd actually rather not see that yet, even if it means a weaker team. Strange but true.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yes, but these big-ticket free agents actually fit in well with a youth movement. Reyes will probably be much better back at SS. Wright is going to be a S-T-U-D.

Beltran is overpaid, but hasn't even hit his prime yet. He had a 136 in OPS+ last year (increasing for the 3rd straight year). Pedro had a down year last year (which means he was better than 90% of the league), but he moves to the NL and a pitcher's park, which definetly helps that ERA. And he pitched as many innings last year as Glavine did (and he lead the Mets in innings pitched). High risk? Sure, but high reward as well.

And, Beltran and Pedro are going to make the Mets a TON in merchandising.

[Arrian]

Re: Beltran's prime. You never REALLY know when a player's prime is until after it has passed. Some guys peak earlier, some later. It's usually in the late 20's, but sometimes it's the mid-20's, or even early 30s. Or, if you're Barry Bonds and have some special cream... well, we won't go there.

I don't know enough about the Mets' young players (Wright, Reyes) to comment intelligently, other than to say that no prospect is a sure thing, and sometimes young players will tons of promise flame out. That aside, the Mets appear to have actually developed some prospects of real worth. Combined with selective free agent signings and perhaps they can re-create the 1998-2000 Yankees style ballclub. We'll see.

No argument about the marketing potential of Pedro and Beltran (particularly Pedro). Pedro's skills... well, sure, his ERA will drop because of the NL, but that's a relative factor (the pitchers he faces will also generally have lower ERAs). I do expect him to have a better year than last year if he remains generally healthy, but I do not expect a return of the Pedro of old (the guy who was dominant nearly every time he took the mound).

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

other than to say that no prospect is a sure thing

Well that usually applies to pitching prospects (There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect, etc). A lot of the time, AAA stats of hitting prospects can correlate well to their major stats. Of course that isn't 100%, but chances are good they will be good.

You never REALLY know when a player's prime is until after it has passed.

Perhaps, but for a vast majority of players, the prime is in the late 20s.

I do not expect a return of the Pedro of old (the guy who was dominant nearly every time he took the mound).

You mean like 2002?

He had an ERA+ of 212 a year ago, which is amazing level. The year before he was at 196 (still amazing).

[Arrian]

Yes, I'd say 2002 was the last year of the "old Pedro."

I think that, if healthy, he will still be a very valueable pitcher (top 5 or 10 in the league). I think his brilliance, however, will be more intermittent. I expect something between 2003 and 2002.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well one down year may be evidence of a decline, or may not. Remember, when Clemens was said to be washed up after some less than amazing years?

[asleepathewheel]

Way to go Mets!

Single handedly devastate the Astros (bye bye rocket!) AND insure that you're team won't be a contender for at least another 3 years.

Wake me when Beltran hits 40 homeruns with half his games in Shea!