Falluja operation underway

[Drachasor]

Originally posted by Ned
On Falluja, it appears there are few defenders. Why?

A lot of the pure terrorists probably just left the city. Others had nowhere to go and so they are fighting or avoiding fighting.

Anyhow, the U.S. will have to keep troops there and perhaps the best bet is to have minimal fighting and then capitalize on the civilian anger to recruit more people to attack the stationed troops. The U.S. is destroying a lot of buildings as they go through.

Of course, I am no expert, these are just my understandings (though someone knowledgeable about this sort of thing suggested the pure terrorists would probably have left). There could always be something else going on too (worst case the city gets nuked, though I don't think that is very likely).

-Drachasor

[Chemical Ollie]

Originally posted by Ned
On Falluja, it appears there are few defenders. Why?

Guerilla warfare does not include big battles with 1000's of soldiers involved on each side. Only a few are stupid/brave enough to face the Marines in regular combat. They are mostly hiding to come back and fight another day, under conditions where they can have the initiative.

[Ned]

Drach, I am only reporting what was said by others in the thread on this topic. Apparently one of the networks showed GIs cutting the IAEA "locks" circa May 10 when they returned to the ammo dump in force. Another story or the same story says that the 3rd ID hauled the HE away.

I think we need to wait for the Army report to find out what happened.

[Patroklos]

how many 'civilians' are still in falluja ?

i think that answers the question...

Exactly.

So much for Trip's Geneva troll

[Ned]

Originally posted by Chemical Ollie


Guerilla warfare does not include big battles with 1000's of soldiers involved on each side. Only a few are stupid/brave enough to face the Marines in regular combat. They are mostly hiding to come back and fight another day, under conditions where they can have the initiative.

This makes sense.

Which means the terrorists of the Zarqawi variety will not waste a lot of manpower defending cities. They may also have learned what happens when you stand and fight the US military by looking at what happend to Sadr.

If this is true, we may only be facing local "regime" elements in Falluja who would rather defend their own turf than fight elsewhere.

As to what happens after the terrorists are routed, it depends, does it not, on the attitude of the citizens. Look at what happened to Sadr's support in Najaf after all the destruction. The citizens blamed him.

[dannubis]

which unfortunately for the coalition doesn't mean you guys can kill everybody on sight.

so actually you got yourselves again in a situation where you are forced to fight with both hands tied behind your back. and this is why iraq can never be really pacified by military force.

[Patroklos]

You know back in the day citizens didn't do this "melt back into the populaion" thing, because armies would kill the population.

Se what happens when you give them an inch.

[Cruddy]

Originally posted by Ned

Which means the terrorists of the Zarqawi variety will not waste a lot of manpower defending cities. They may also have learned what happens when you stand and fight the US military by looking at what happend to Sadr.

He became a heroic defender of Islam against the Infidel.

Originally posted by Ned
If this is true, we may only be facing local "regime" elements in Falluja who would rather defend their own turf than fight elsewhere.

As to what happens after the terrorists are routed, it depends, does it not, on the attitude of the citizens. Look at what happened to Sadr's support in Najaf after all the destruction. The citizens blamed him.

Ned, the US drops tons and tons of explosives on Najaf... and the citizens blame Sadr?

Stop taking in Fox News on a drip and try to put yourself in the shoes of someone whose country has been invaded.

Sure, few Iraqis want Saddam.

Even less want infidels with guns roaming the streets.

[Drachasor]

My understanding from the polls in Iraq is there is about a 50/50 split on the American forces. Basically no one likes how things are going, but about 50 percent of people are hopeful that conditions will improve. Others are much more cynical about how much better things are going to get.

-Drachasor

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Cruddy



Ned, the US drops tons and tons of explosives on Najaf... and the citizens blame Sadr?

Stop taking in Fox News on a drip and try to put yourself in the shoes of someone whose country has been invaded.

Sure, few Iraqis want Saddam.

Even less want infidels with guns roaming the streets.

Cruddy, the citizens of Najaf DID blame Sadr. It wasnt just on Fox, it was clear via every mainstream media channel. Ramo and I discussed why, and the question of whether Najaf was exceptional and why. This aint just a nedaverse thing.

Few Iraqis WANT Americans roaming the streets, but almost all the Kurds and a large percentage of the Shia Arabs (the exact percentage is QUITE disputed) understand the NEED for Americans to be there now.

NPR, not a conservative outlet, had a piece this morning on reaction in Baghdad to the attack on Fallujah. Most Sunni Arabs they spoke to thought it was a bad idea, while Shiites in Sadr City saw it as necessary. And Sadr City is one of the Shiite areas least friendly to Americans.

I think some of us have little idea of the hatred the Shia of Iraq bear for the ex-Baathists, the Wahabi extremists, and the foreign arabs who have been using Fallujah as a base to attack them.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Drachasor


A lot of the pure terrorists probably just left the city. Others had nowhere to go and so they are fighting or avoiding fighting.

Anyhow, the U.S. will have to keep troops there and perhaps the best bet is to have minimal fighting and then capitalize on the civilian anger to recruit more people to attack the stationed troops. The U.S. is destroying a lot of buildings as they go through.

Of course, I am no expert, these are just my understandings (though someone knowledgeable about this sort of thing suggested the pure terrorists would probably have left). There could always be something else going on too (worst case the city gets nuked, though I don't think that is very likely).

-Drachasor

The US and Iraqi troops arent just blowing up buildings for the hell of it. They blow up buildings when said buildings are used by insurgents. Which means the insurgents too have a dilemma. IF you run, you DONT get scenes of destruction. You give up your sanctuary for nothing. IF you stay, you DO get scenes of destruction, BUT you lose fighters. You DO get the propanda win, but you pay for it.

[Cruddy]

Originally posted by lord of the mark

Few Iraqis WANT Americans roaming the streets, but almost all the Kurds and a large percentage of the Shia Arabs (the exact percentage is QUITE disputed) understand the NEED for Americans to be there now.

Ned, the first casualty of war... is the truth.

Like I said, imagine (just sit and imagine) what your reaction would be to a bunch of foreigners turning up in your hometown and blowing the sh1t out of all and sundry.

Originally posted by lord of the mark
I think some of us have little idea of the hatred the Shia of Iraq bear for the ex-Baathists, the Wahabi extremists, and the foreign arabs who have been using Fallujah as a base to attack them.

I think most Americans have no concept of what it feels like to be invaded.

EDIT: The Americans that do have such a concept are the Vietnamese immigrants.

[GePap]

The Shia see thier chance to finally have power on a democratic government- that assumes of course they expect majority rule. The Kurds expect to have lots of autonomy,- that assumes lots of rights to large minorities (the Kurds might not care to have the Turkomen and other smaller groups to all of a sudden get rights themselves that could interfere with Kurdish rule). These two expectations will clash.

The problem that storming and regaining control of Fallujah won't solve is that Sunni Arabs don't particularly win anything in either case, so they have every reason to be obstructionist.

[Drake Tungsten]

I think most Americans have no concept of what it feels like to be invaded.

English people do?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ned
On Falluja, it appears there are few defenders. Why?

early reports said 3000 to 5000 fighter in the city. Latest reports from BBC, CNN elsewhere indicate 1200 to 3000. Probably anywhere from a few hundred to 3000 got away before the incursion.

The rest are being killed and captured, or are moving about within the city, using guerilla tactics. Heavy resistance was reported on the edge of the city. Resistance is lighter than expected in Jowlan, but its certainly not absent. They may well have developed other centers within the city, assuming the americans would go for Jowlan.

Significant numbers seem to on the move in Ramadi, where they are being fought.