Paging Ben Kenobi... wager's due!

[Ben Kenobi]

So where's the avatar?

[GhengisFarbâ„¢]

Don't give in Ben!

Hold out till they count all the Provisional Ballots!

[Ben Kenobi]

Well, without New Jersey

I need Bush to win

NM, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon.

Now, the biggest margin I would have had to overcome is 5 percent in Oregon, which will narrow, as they count the last 6% of the vote.

So not that far off. Bush lost by 3 in Michigan, Minnesota, and only 2 in Pennsylvania.

Pretty good prediction considering that I made it way back in February.

Better than Zogby that's for sure.

[Ben Kenobi]

And 2/3rds of the states, means I need only NM, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

So that's hardly out of reach.

I'm rounding them all down, because the prediction was very much in your favour.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I haven't seen the statewide figures.

And Bush did better than anyone else figured that he would do

How so?

He lost 1 state (NH) and gained 2 (Iowa and NM)

Not exactly a huge shift from 2000

This result is very close to what I expected.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Actually, I figured Bush would win, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.

He only lost New Jersey by 5, and won everything else by the margin he needed to do.

So not that far off.

Another 5 percent in Jersey, and a couple percent in Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and I win my bet.

Completely untrue. Unless you're talking about 2/3 of actual numbers of states. I mentioned 2/3 of electoral college votes, which is one of the two conditions previously mentioned. A gain from what actually happened of NJ, Mich, PA and Wisc only gets him to 330 EC votes or so. Still a long way from 359.

You also forget to include Iowa, Nevada, NM in the Bush column, which is why you erroneously believe I need Illinois.

Already included. Please read. I was listing states which Bush needed to win which he did not in order to take 2/3 of EC. Nevada, NM and Iowa already counted.

In fact, even as late as 12 am PST, I had a chance in California.

[Ben Kenobi]

How so?

He lost 1 state (NH) and gained 2 (Iowa and NM)

Not exactly a huge shift from 2000

This result is very close to what I expected.

He was really close to taking PA, MI, MN, still might get WI.

That's why I gambled on him getting 2/3rds.

[KrazyHorse]

And tose still don't get you into 2/3 of EC votes territory.

Not even close. Would you like me to do the math again?

[Ben Kenobi]

Completely untrue. Unless you're talking about 2/3 of actual numbers of states. I mentioned 2/3 of electoral college votes, which is one of the two conditions previously mentioned. A gain from what actually happened of NJ, Mich, PA and Wisc only gets him to 330 EC votes or so. Still a long way from 359.

Minnesota too. You keep forgetting Minnesota and Oregon.

All of these gets him very close.

Also, remember the bet had both 2/3rds of the actual states, (38 rounded down), and 2/3rds of the college, which is 358 rounded down.

He wasn't that far.

[Ben Kenobi]

All right, step by step.

Bush, with Ohio and Nevada has 274 EC votes.

5 for NM, 7 for IA brings him up to 286

4 for NH gives him 290

PA gives him 311

MI gives him 326

WI gives him 336

MN gives him 346

NJ gives him 361

OR he could get 7 for Oregon and 4 for Hawaii, and lose New Jersey.

[Agathon]

So are you guys taking suggestions for Ben's avatar?

I like these:

[Agathon]

Or

[Ben Kenobi]

I'm waiting to find out.

If he puts it up now, then I can put it up before I have to go out tonight.

[Ben Kenobi]

@ Aggie.

[Agathon]

I wonder if the rollerblader is Fez. It looks a bit like him.