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"“Not counting independents, the Times’ results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans — a huge and unheard-of margin,” ROLL CALL claims."
They have a bad history as it is.
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Ah yes, LA Times... LA Times...
"“Not counting independents, the Times’ results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans — a huge and unheard-of margin,” ROLL CALL claims."
They have a bad history as it is.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence) -
This is all about image.
It's not really about what the candidates are like, but about what the voters think they are like.
So far, statistically speaking, the polls are in a dead heat. I am assuming a 2.5% margin of error, so anything within 5% of each other is the same.
However, as Ramo pointed out, the trend is what's interesting. Even though, unless Kerry can carry some of the traditional Republican states, the deciding factors are the so called "Battleground States," and Bush has Florida in his back pocket.(\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
(='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
(")_(") "Starting the fire from within."Comment
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This would be because in the areas they surveyed, the voter registrations are comprised of many more democrats than republicans.Originally posted by Giancarlo
Ah yes, LA Times... LA Times...
"“Not counting independents, the Times’ results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans — a huge and unheard-of margin,” ROLL CALL claims."
They have a bad history as it is.Comment
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Current odds on Kerry 3 to 1. So my most important indicator is still Pro-Bush.Accidently left my signature in this post.Comment
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Why many people insist on going by this sort of number, which sounds outdated based on the odds Vegas Oddsmakers were giving out on the spot the other day in a news story, its questionable how accurate they actually are. The odds makers are accounting for who is betting and what odds they need to make betting seem attractive to potential betters and fairly even amounts of money on both sides. Given the odds for a bet are in favor of the house, if they can get an equal amount of money on both sides they win no matter what. The odds measure primarily public perception of who is currently likely to win, not necessarily the reality.Originally posted by Moral Hazard
Current odds on Kerry 3 to 1. So my most important indicator is still Pro-Bush.Comment
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Ah, here we have some explanation as to why Kerry gained in this poll. From www.littlegreenfootballs.com
Newsweek Poll: Stacked?
Look at the makeup of Republicans vs. Democrats in Newsweek’s poll from September 11, 2004: NEWSWEEK POLL: Campaign 2004.
391 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
270 Independents (plus or minus 7)
Compare against the same data from the new poll, which Newsweek is using to claim that Bush’s poll lead has “evaporated:” NEWSWEEK POLL: First Presidential Debate.
345 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
364 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
278 Independents (plus or minus 7)
Did Newsweek choose a lower percentage of Republicans for the first debate to set up Kerry’s “comeback,” or did they stack the deck with more Democrats in the second poll?"I'm moving to the Left" - Lancer
"I imagine the neighbors on your right are estatic." - SlowwhandComment
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Or is the author of the article a crazy conspiracy theorist? The numbers for the first poll don't reflect party ID, where Democrats have a 3 or 4% advantage according to Pew, they instead gave the Republians a 6% advantage. So, does that mean Newsweek stacked the deck to create an imaginary convention bounce for the Republicans?
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Holy ****, I was right.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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Converting everything into nice and easy percentages...
In the first Newsweek poll, Republicans made up 40% of those polled, Democrats 31%. Now it's 35% R (-5%), 37% D (+6%). In the second poll, Bush lost 4 points relative to the first, and Kerry gained 4 points. ...I think that the fact that Newsweek oversampled Republicans in the first poll and (slightly) oversampled Democrats in the second can account for the shift.
That said, put me in the "race is tied" category. If we get a bunch more polls like this showing a move toward Kerry in the next week or so, probably even that won't move me out of there unless a majority of the leads are outside the margin of error.Comment
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As I said in the initial debate thread, the internals of all these polls: Gallup, Newsweek, LA Times are ovewhelmingly in Kerry's favor. The horse race is typically slow to catch up. Expect it to change accordingly."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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41.1251661% of statistics is made up. Newsweek sucks.For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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About what?Originally posted by Giancarlo
Holy ****, I was right.
Stop Quoting BenComment
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Wrong. 100% of statistics are made up, of course.Originally posted by Giancarlo
41.1251661% of statistics is made up. Newsweek sucks.
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Dude, that 41% was made up, so of course 100% are made up.Originally posted by Vlad Antlerkov
Wrong. 100% of statistics are made up, of course.
For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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I think you're blind.Originally posted by Giancarlo
He probably did. If you did, you would notice Kerry didn't do that great. But I don't think you watched it.
[heavy Texas accent]
"I know that! I know Saddam didn't attack us! I know that!!!"
[/heavy Texas accent]We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham LincolnComment
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