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Bush's lead GONE; Kerry leads 49-46 now

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  • #46
    Ahem...

    Back on topic a little.

    The Newsweek poll seems to show a sampling of registered voters. Has anybody seen a poll of "likely" voters?
    "I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003

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    • #47
      Originally posted by Giancarlo
      Edward's is pathetic.. he just doesn't have the intelligence to face Cheney. You may hate Cheney, but he is a very intelligent and clever man.
      Bush is pathetic... he just doesn't have the intelligence to face Gore. You may hate Gore, but he is a very intelligent and clever man.
      "I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie Allen

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      • #48
        Originally posted by Ted Striker



        Ted you COMMIE!
        Eventis is the only refuge of the spammer. Join us now.
        Long live teh paranoia smiley!

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        • #49
          Originally posted by Giancarlo
          Edward's is pathetic.. he just doesn't have the intelligence to face Cheney. You may hate Cheney, but he is a very intelligent and clever man.
          I agree that Cheney is smart, and I think the debate Tuesday is going to be the one that is most up in the air now.

          Cheney is maaybe smarter, but he has little experience with debate-like formats, and even has problems with them.

          Edwards is certainly not an idiot; his intelligence is above average. On his side he definitely has charisma and debating skills though. As a trial lawyer, he's had a huge amount of practice making arguements in court. That's nothing to casually dismiss.


          Next friday there is a Bush-Kerry debate in a townhall setting, where random people has random questions. Bush's weakpoint is preparing for the unexpected, and this debate will be the most open in terms of questions.

          The week after this coming one is a third debate, same format as this last one, focused on domestic policy. No offense to the Bush supporters out there, but Kerry has a much better position on domestic policy than he does on national security in the war, given people's perceptions and what you can misconstrue about his voting record. As such Kerry is going to do even better here than he did last Thursday.

          So, I think it is very likely that Kerry will win all three debates, and Edwards, imho, is the favorite for the Teusday debate between him and Cheney.

          We'll just have to wait and see though, those are just my predictions. A major gaffe by Kerry or Edwards could lose the debate for them, but I don't expect such an error to occur. (At any rate, in my mind it is at least as likely that Bush or Cheney will make a major gaffe, so that part is up in the air--if it happens at all).

          -Drachasor
          "If there's a child on the south side of Chicago who can't read, that matters to me, even if it's not my child. If there's a senior citizen somewhere who can't pay for her prescription and has to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it's not my grandmother. If there's an Arab American family being rounded up without benefit of an attorney or due process, that threatens my civil liberties. It's that fundamental belief -- I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper -- that makes this country work." - Barack Obama

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          • #50
            That's funny, the other polls I have seen all showed Bush still leading, including one by a Democratic firm.

            I reccomend checking www.realclearpolitics.com in the next few days. That website averages the results of all of the differenr polls to correct for bias in any one.
            "I'm moving to the Left" - Lancer

            "I imagine the neighbors on your right are estatic." - Slowwhand

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            • #51
              Originally posted by Giancarlo
              A recent gallup poll said Bush had a 5% lead after the debate.. so not really. Newsweek isn't credible.
              So when two polls disagree you automatically choose the one that gives Bush a bigger lead?
              There's no reason to think that a Newsweek polls is pro-Kerry, they recently had Bush leading by double digits.

              Gallup has been in this business for quite some time.
              Which counts for ****-all.

              Newsweek rather polls more democrats then republicans.
              Link?

              How so? There won't be anymore victories in debates for Kerry and Edwards.

              Well maybe pretty-boy Edwards is going to get stomped if he has any more DOMA moments, (but he'll still win on BS "likability" even if Cheney stomps him on the issues) but I don't see how Bush is going to beat Kerry.

              The Left Coaster = Garbage
              So you deny that Gallup centers their polls so that more Republican and Democratic responces are counted?

              Has anybody seen a poll of "likely" voters?
              I don't trust those too much. Every pollster has a (usually) secret formula to determine "likely" voters, its hard to trust numbers when they don't tell you how those numbers are produced.
              Stop Quoting Ben

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              • #52
                Originally posted by Drachasor
                Cheney is maaybe smarter, but he has little experience with debate-like formats, and even has problems with them.

                Edwards is certainly not an idiot; his intelligence is above average. On his side he definitely has charisma and debating skills though. As a trial lawyer, he's had a huge amount of practice making arguements in court. That's nothing to casually dismiss.
                If you ever seen Edwards talk, you will know what I mean when I say he fumbles words. He was asked a question on gay marriage and couldn't get the right words... "Well, I, umm, well.. ummm..." something like that. Cheney is definitely the better speaker and is a definitely better debator.

                So, I think it is very likely that Kerry will win all three debates, and Edwards, imho, is the favorite for the Teusday debate between him and Cheney.
                I don't think so. I think Kerry and Edwards will lose the rest of them. Certainly I disagree with Bush more on domestic policy, but he has a much better grasp on it then Kerry.

                And besides I've seen several polls where Bush is more likeable and more identifiable with the American people.

                But hey people.. lets go back to the Bush/Gore debates. Gore pretty much sweeped through that those if you remember... especially the first one where something like 70% said he did better. He still lost the election. Same thing will happen here.
                For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                • #53
                  Cheney: "John Edwards was chosen because of his good looks, his charm and his charisma. I find this highly ironic becuase those are the same criteria President Bush used to select me."

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                  • #54
                    Did he really say that??

                    (Though if he did he is copying Reagan's famous line against Mondale).
                    We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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                    • #55
                      I would be suprised to find out Kerry was really leading. He seems to be really floundering lately. He couldn't have done that good in the debate. Could he have?
                      I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                      - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Kidicious
                        I would be suprised to find out Kerry was really leading. He seems to be really floundering lately. He couldn't have done that good in the debate. Could he have?
                        Still his "lead" in this poll is within the margin of the error. It doesn't really mean much. It just means we are probably back the pre-RNC convention time where both were neck/neck.

                        I think he is still floundering... he didn't do great in the debate. Neither did Bush. If anybody saw my original score on the debate I gave Bush a 62% and Kerry a 63%.
                        For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                        • #57
                          Originally posted by Kidicious
                          I would be suprised to find out Kerry was really leading. He seems to be really floundering lately. He couldn't have done that good in the debate. Could he have?
                          Did you even watch it?
                          We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Ted Striker


                            Did you even watch it?
                            He probably did. If you did, you would notice Kerry didn't do that great. But I don't think you watched it.
                            For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                            • #59
                              LA Times Poll:

                              In the Los Angeles Times poll, Kerry was supported by 49 percent of the 725 registered voters who watched, listened, or read about Thursday's presidential debate, and Bush was backed by 47 percent.
                              link
                              "I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie Allen

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                              • #60
                                Originally posted by Kidicious
                                I would be suprised to find out Kerry was really leading. He seems to be really floundering lately. He couldn't have done that good in the debate. Could he have?
                                Kerry did quite a bit better than Bush on many levels.

                                Kerry quote more facts and had a great command of the material. He was able to be very clear and didn't have any problems with confusing statements. He even cleared up past confusing statements he has made.

                                Bush tended to repeat the some things over and over, and he even repeated a criticism of Kerry many times *after* Kerry more than adequately addressed it. Bush was also plagued by sighs, eye rolls, red-faced consternation/panic, and generally seeming to not be on the ball for about half of the debate. He recovered in the second half, but only by a little. Kerry was pretty strong throughout, but he never deliver a "knockout blow" to Bush.

                                Basically everyone that watched the debate agrees that Kerry won, and only die-hard Bush supporters or people that absolutely hate Kerry diverge from that (well, some other odd people too, I guess). (Though technically that is just my supposition). Heck, even Fox News says that Kerry won on their website, and we should all know they favor the conservatives. Basically every poll of the debaters out there has Kerry winning.

                                As I said, this is Bush's strong suit, so I expect Kerry to win consistently.

                                As for Gore v. Bush in 2000, well, Gore came across as arrogant and condecending in the debates, which cost him a lot. Kerry is coming across as *Presidential* while Bush isn't. There's a big difference.

                                -Drachasor
                                "If there's a child on the south side of Chicago who can't read, that matters to me, even if it's not my child. If there's a senior citizen somewhere who can't pay for her prescription and has to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it's not my grandmother. If there's an Arab American family being rounded up without benefit of an attorney or due process, that threatens my civil liberties. It's that fundamental belief -- I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper -- that makes this country work." - Barack Obama

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