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Bush's lead GONE; Kerry leads 49-46 now

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  • #121
    Gallup's numbers show a huge bounce for Kerry.

    Two-Way RV's
    Bush Kerry
    10/3 49 47
    9/26 54 41

    Two-way LV's
    Bush Kerry
    10/3 49 49
    9/26 52 44

    That's an 11 point bounce on RV's, and an 8 point bounce on LV's.

    Since Gallup significantly oversamples Republicans, Kerry probably has a few points lead on RV's.
    "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
    -Bokonon

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    • #122
      What "huge" bounce? I don't really see a huge bounce there. Sorry.
      For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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      • #123
        Originally posted by MrFun



        Apparently, you do not realize that Bush is a president who has had stronger ties with religious right organizations than some other past Republican presidents.


        That is NOT moderation.
        You support the a growing line of left wing power hungry snobs like John Kerry. That is not moderation.
        For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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        • #124
          What "huge" bounce? I don't really see a huge bounce there. Sorry.
          Of course you don't! You'd rather hang yourself than turn left on a street corner!
          "I work in IT so I'd be buggered without a computer" - Words of wisdom from Provost Harrison
          "You can be wrong AND jewish" - Wiglaf :love:

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          • #125
            Originally posted by Whaleboy


            Of course you don't! You'd rather hang yourself than turn left on a street corner!
            I don't think Bush had a lead to begin with. I said this before. I think this nation is evenly split, but I believe Bush will win the election because some non-partisan registered voters as myself will vote for him instead of Kerry.
            For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

            Comment

            • #126
              Originally posted by Vlad Antlerkov


              Nitpick: Election day is 11/2, not 11/3. But yes, I understand and partially agree with the sentiment. (Polls are useful for judging momentum, but that's about it when we're this far out. all IMHO, of course.)


              oops girlfriends birthday is nov 4th

              *checks to see if my birthday is still tuesday.
              Which side are we on? We're on the side of the demons, Chief. We are evil men in the gardens of paradise, sent by the forces of death to spread devastation and destruction wherever we go. I'm surprised you didn't know that. --Saul Tigh

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              • #127
                ahhahhaha spanish fruity boy is mad because he knows Bush is going to lose have fun with your bf

                Even my lazy ass will get out of the house that day (election day). I'm going to make a life's pledge and never vote for a Republican EVER! w00t!

                Edwards is goign to pwn Cheney. He's going to say HALLIBURTION WAS RUN BY CHENEY... and everyone is going to go, "man that guy is an ass... I like edwards"

                I smoke too much nOT!@
                To us, it is the BEAST.

                Comment

                • #128
                  Originally posted by Ramo
                  Gallup's numbers show a huge bounce for Kerry.

                  Two-Way RV's
                  Bush Kerry
                  10/3 49 47
                  9/26 54 41

                  Two-way LV's
                  Bush Kerry
                  10/3 49 49
                  9/26 52 44

                  That's an 11 point bounce on RV's, and an 8 point bounce on LV's.

                  Since Gallup significantly oversamples Republicans, Kerry probably has a few points lead on RV's.
                  Did Gallup oversample Republicans this time? They go by Party ID, not Party Registration, which is more fluid and has changed as different candidates become stronger.
                  "I'm moving to the Left" - Lancer

                  "I imagine the neighbors on your right are estatic." - Slowwhand

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                  • #129
                    Zogby: has it at Bush 46 - Kerry 45 (two way), Bush 46 - Kerry 43 (multiparty).

                    Pollster John Zogby: "The close race got even closer. There is some evidence that Kerry’s debate performance and increased clarity on the war has helped him consolidate at least some of the support that he has lost. But undecideds are up to 8 percent and there is still a month to go. There is also no doubt that Ralph Nader is hurting Kerry. The post convention bounce for Bush is over and his biggest hurdle is among undecided voters who give him a 31 percent positive job performance rating and a 69 percent negative rating. Only 13 percent of undecided voters feel that the president deserves re-election (his lowest yet) while 37 percent feel it is time for someone new.

                    Undecideds at 8 percent are high because we don’t push them until later. Five points of these are hard undecideds, two-points use to be with Kerry, and one point with Bush. How will they break in the end? Will they even vote?
                    All these polls tend to point to one thing - a close race within the margin of errors.
                    "I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie Allen

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                    • #130
                      Originally posted by Sava
                      ahhahhaha spanish fruity boy is mad because he knows Bush is going to lose have fun with your bf
                      Actually Bush isn't. Check out the Rasmussen poll again.. Bush lost a stunning... -.4%... Kerry is going to lose the election. You must examine the facts real closely please. Then you can talk to me.

                      Edwards is goign to pwn Cheney. He's going to say HALLIBURTION WAS RUN BY CHENEY... and everyone is going to go, "man that guy is an ass... I like edwards"
                      He can't because Edwards is an idiot. Cheney is a very smart man. He's going to say Halliburton was run by Cheney? Boohoo, boohoo, boo ****ing hoo.. who the hell cares? Everybody already knows. How much wealth does Kerry have? Six multi-million dollar properties.. how much money does edwards have? FAR MORE THEN CHENEY.
                      For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                      • #131
                        I think you underestimate Edwards, Giancarlo. The man didn't go from broke-ass white-trash to rich trial lawyer by being an idiot. And BTW, he defeated the Jesse Helm's political machine in North Carolina when he ran for the Senate.

                        So go on underestimating Edwards like you have been. The man is bright, intelligent, and an expert at shmoozing people over. We'll see on Tuesday.

                        But I'm sure even after Edwards pwns Cheney and the polls prove it, that you will continue to deny it.
                        To us, it is the BEAST.

                        Comment

                        • #132
                          Originally posted by Sava
                          I think you underestimate Edwards, Giancarlo. The man didn't go from broke-ass white-trash to rich trial lawyer by being an idiot. And BTW, he defeated the Jesse Helm's political machine in North Carolina when he ran for the Senate.

                          So go on underestimating Edwards like you have been. The man is bright, intelligent, and an expert at shmoozing people over. We'll see on Tuesday.

                          But I'm sure even after Edwards pwns Cheney and the polls prove it, that you will continue to deny it.
                          I think you underestimate Cheney, big time too. Edwards is not very smart. I've seen plenty of lawyers who aren't very smart but have plenty of money.

                          You are underestimating Cheney big time. Cheney is very cunning, incredibly clever, highly intelligent and incredibly bright. He has a direct way of speaking as I've actually seen him in person when he was going to Italy last summer.

                          Cheney will PWN Edwards and the polls will prove it.

                          BTW... I have some very bad news for you Sava...

                          http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6294-2004Oct4.html


                          Bush holds a 5% lead according to that poll.
                          For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                          • #133
                            Well, I might be under-estimating Cheney... but I've seen him speak. I saw him in the debate in 2000. He didn't come across as all that cunning.

                            He's not a stupid man... and I do think he's diabolically intelligent. But he's far from charismatic. And this ticket the Democrats have is the perfect 1-2 punch against the Bush ticket.

                            Kerry is smarter than Bush and pwns Bush in the debate.

                            Edwards is more charismatic and articulate than Cheney and will pwn in the debate.

                            Bush might still have an edge, like that poll suggests. But his lead is not strong. Kerry is closing the gap.

                            Just think back to the 2000 election. Nobody who voted for Gore is going to vote for Bush in 2004. But some non-voters, Nader voters, or disgruntled Republicans like Imran will vote Kerry. That will be the edge Kerry needs and that will be why Kerry is going to win. It's simple, but how can you argue against that reasoning?
                            To us, it is the BEAST.

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                            • #134
                              Originally posted by Sava
                              Well, I might be under-estimating Cheney... but I've seen him speak. I saw him in the debate in 2000. He didn't come across as all that cunning.
                              I've actually seen him in person. Was about five feet away from him. These are things I noticed. He is a great speaker.

                              And this ticket the Democrats have is the perfect 1-2 punch against the Bush ticket.
                              That's utter crap and you know it. You know Cheney is a far better speaker then Edwards. Edwards is simplistic like Bush.

                              Kerry is smarter than Bush and pwns Bush in the debate.
                              Not totally according to polls. Bush's favorable image actually went up.

                              Edwards is more charismatic and articulate than Cheney and will pwn in the debate.
                              NOPE! Not at all.

                              Bush might still have an edge, like that poll suggests. But his lead is not strong. Kerry is closing the gap.
                              Not really. Kerry's momentum isn't that fast.

                              Just think back to the 2000 election. Nobody who voted for Gore is going to vote for Bush in 2004. But some non-voters, Nader voters, or disgruntled Republicans like Imran will vote Kerry. That will be the edge Kerry needs and that will be why Kerry is going to win. It's simple, but how can you argue against that reasoning?
                              Kerry can't win. Reason... because he is relying on voter blocs that are very weak, and Bush is relying on those who are stronger and he has the support of his party. Gore didn't secure enough support from his own party. You are wrong again. But what else is new? Just I'll remind you it when Bush in his second inauguration.
                              For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                              • #135
                                We are also not counting on the massive voter registration drives that have occured-there are millions of new voters this election year. Lets see which way they go.
                                If you don't like reality, change it! me
                                "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                                "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                                "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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