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empty empty words...
I'll mail you some kleenex after the election.
edit: to fezcarlo
I'll mail you some kleenex after the election.
edit: to fezcarlo
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To us, it is the BEAST. -
I'll mail them back when Kerry makes his concession speech.Originally posted by Sava
empty empty words...
I'll mail you some kleenex after the election.
edit: to fezcarloFor there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)Comment
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ickTo us, it is the BEAST.Comment
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Also, what percentage of them actually turn out and vote.Originally posted by GePap
We are also not counting on the massive voter registration drives that have occured-there are millions of new voters this election year. Lets see which way they go."I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie AllenComment
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and what percentage are Republican?Comment
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Forgive me. I'll begin celebrating King George II's victory and America's inevitable conquest of this world soon enough!Originally posted by Giancarlo
Careful don't trip on the cord when you start to celebratea victory that isn't really there. Al Gore won the first debate in 2000 and the other ones after that but he still lost the election.Comment
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A minority of them are, if all the information available is any good. BUt more important is the size of these drives in swing states.Originally posted by Harry Tuttle
and what percentage are Republican?If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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In Ohio and Florida, at least, according to a sampling by the NY Times.Originally posted by GePap
A minority of them are, if all the information available is any good.
But, like I said, turnout is key."I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie AllenComment
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Zogby, which has been the Democratic outlier so far, has Bush still leading. Washington Post/ ABC has a 5 point lead, so does Pew. Pew also has a 15 point lead for Bush in Battleground States.l
One things I noticed that had happened in the polls coming prior to the debates was that Bush was gaining ground in Democratic states such as Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. Debates typically have the effect at rallying their own party behind their candidate, so what we could be seeing is those Kerry voters who may have strayed returning to Kerry.
In any case, stay tuned to www.realclearpolitics.com for the averages of all the polls done."I'm moving to the Left" - Lancer
"I imagine the neighbors on your right are estatic." - SlowwhandComment
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Is averaging them intended to take out the statistical error/bias/flawed methadology?In any case, stay tuned to www.realclearpolitics.com for the averages of all the polls done.
Heh. Two wrongs don't make a right, but maybe the average of multiple wrongs....
"I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie AllenComment
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its how we do it in science
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
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Um. How does that work? If you have one poll of 600 people and one of 3000, and you just average the percentages, doesn't that add too much weight to the 600 poll?"In the beginning was the Word. Then came the ******* word processor." -Dan Simmons, HyperionComment
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Perhaps, but it seems rather silly to me, considering the sampling differences, different methadologies, different phrasing of the questions, pushing leaners vs. not, two-way races vs multiparty, the occasional outlier poll, taken at different dates, with different margins of error, etc, to tell me, what? That the race is close?Originally posted by Jon Miller
its how we do it in science
I already know that.
"I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie AllenComment
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If you're just averaging them, yep. Especially as (assuming no bias) the 3000 one likely going to be more accurate than the 600 one.Originally posted by dv8ed
Um. How does that work? If you have one poll of 600 people and one of 3000, and you just average the percentages, doesn't that add too much weight to the 600 poll?
Now, if you have the internal of the two polls, and the methadologies were the same, you could try to compute a figure weighting the two appropriately, although that wouldn't really lower the margin of error very much. (going from a 3000 size poll to a 3600 size poll only reduces the margin of error by about 00.15%)"I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie AllenComment
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You left out the "pseudo-"Originally posted by Jon Miller
its how we do it in science
JM
-Drachasor"If there's a child on the south side of Chicago who can't read, that matters to me, even if it's not my child. If there's a senior citizen somewhere who can't pay for her prescription and has to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it's not my grandmother. If there's an Arab American family being rounded up without benefit of an attorney or due process, that threatens my civil liberties. It's that fundamental belief -- I am my brother's keeper, I am my sister's keeper -- that makes this country work." - Barack ObamaComment
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