McCain 2008 ?

[FrustratedPoet]

McCain makes some great oven chips.

[Dinner]

McCain is a fine man and I hope he decides to run in 2008. I recall in 2000 he said he'd never run again if he didn't get the Republican nomination so I don't have much faith that he'll change his mind.

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by Oerdin
McCain is a fine man and I hope he decides to run in 2008. I recall in 2000 he said he'd never run again if he didn't get the Republican nomination so I don't have much faith that he'll change his mind.

Yeah but don't you think he might retire pretty soon? He is getting pretty old..

[Admiral]

For all the talk that Bush is dominating the polls, and that Kerry has no chance, you are overlooking a couple of key factors. First, in a technical sense, the popular vote doesn't matter. And in the states, currently Kerry has 252 votes to Bush's 254. Florida and Nevada are tied. All Kerry would have to do would be to win Florida, and he'd be in the whitehouse. That would also allow Colorodo, currently in the Kerry camp but rather unlikely to vote for him, to swing to Bush. Also, if the ammendment there to divide the EC votes proportionally manages to pass, it will apply to this election, and Kerry would likely recieve 4 out of the 9, which, if Bush takes Florida but Kerry picks up Pennsylvania (which he is likely to, and where he is only behind by a couple of points) that also would put him into the whitehouse. Also, bear in mind that the tie in the EC, which would normally be resolved by the house, likely won't occur, as a WV elector for Bush has promised not to vote for him (based upon data from www.electoral-vote.com).
Also, Kerry went down in the national polls due really to two things: the swift boat ads and ensuing controversy, and the Bush rephrasing of the election solely in terms of safety for America. With all the material coming out now about Bush and lying about his national guard record (interesting piece by Paul Krugman in the NYTimes. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/10/op...10krugman.html), that could start to have the same effect as swift boat, especially with the help of some attack ads (also, that biography coming out about him, I forget who by, could create some controversy). Also, with the Iraq conflict not looking any brighter, and a rash of new casualties, some swing voters could well start to doubt Bush's war-president image (let's face it, the "mission accomplished" stunt wasn't exactly the most strategically brilliant move).
Finally, Zogby, the offical pollster for the Wall Street Journal (to prevent criticism of being a mindless lefty) attacked the Newsweek and Rassutten polls that everyone seems to be basing their "Bush is ahead" gloating on, for polling to many Republicans. I forget Zogby's exact conclusion, but I think he had Bush ahead by about 3%.
The conclusion being, the race is still close. Kerry is not "dead in the water."

[Giancarlo]

I question that electoral-vote website... how is it at all accurate if you don't trust state polls? Most of the polls posted are state polls (done in a particular state). I could bring up more sources showing Bush has a growing lead in states that were once up for grabs. And Zogby? Zogby... hahahahahahah.... they are the worse poll you could bring up... they may be the official pollster for the Wall Street Journal but like the L.A Times I heard they polled more democrats then republicans.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/04249/373858.stm

[The Mad Monk]

New Jersey is Barely Kerry!!!

My vote counts!

My vote counts!

My vote counts!

[Sandman]

McCain is simply too old to make a good president. It sounds harsh. but it's not good for a country to have a physically ailing leader.

[The Mad Monk]

Um...did you check the projected votes map on that site?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep10p.html

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by The Mad Monk
Um...did you check the projected votes map on that site?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep10p.html

While the Swift boat flap turned the debate away from the ailing economy and the Iraq war, the political landscape shifted just enough in Missouri, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada to nudge those states from the "tossup" category to "lean-Bush."

Three states moved from lean-Kerry to toss-up -- Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Mexico.

Virginia and Louisiana shifted from lean-Bush to solid Bush, with Kerry virtually abandoning efforts to expand the playing field deep into the South. Arkansas and North Carolina, home of Kerry's running mate, John Edwards, remain marginally in play.

----

Those are updates..

[Giancarlo]

But wait a damn minute.. California is barely Kerry? What the? That can't be right.. my vote actually is worth something?

[Admiral]

Virginia is apparently now a battleground state (which is nice. I always like to think that I can have some effect), and Kerry is now starting to campaign heavily there. The guy who runs the Electoral-Vote site himself admits that the projected votes regression lines is bogus until october, and in some states will be bogus until the election. I don't know where you can possibly argue that Wisconsin is leaning-Bush, as it have voted democratic since Reagan, and has been leaning democratic the entire summer. New Mexico, too, has been Kerry all summer, and also has a democratic voting history. Arkansas and NC will almost assuredly go for Bush, and if they don't, it will be because of a major major Bush scandal, leading to a Kerry landslide, which in my eyes would be rather unlikely.
However, I think that with the ream of material that Kerry has to attack Bush on, and with the fact that he is finally starting to take a stance on the war in Iraq, that Kerry can swing enough votes to win a slim victory. Also, despite Bush's claims that the economy is doing just nicely, the fact of the matter is that the economic situation of the country is in a rather bad way (and I refer again to the Krugman piece, http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/10/op...10krugman.html), and that Pennsylvania and WV, where the economy is significant, could both easily vote for Kerry.
Finally, in defense of electoral-vote.com, there is really no partisan lean on the site. He takes every state poll, and averages state polls taken over the same time-period. While certain polls are bogus, like the one having a statistical tie in Ca, and Kerry ahead in Tennassee, taken as a whole, they present a fair picture of the political battleground.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Wake me up for polling data 2 weeks prior to Nov. 2nd.

[Imran Siddiqui]

As a side note, he has always impressed me more than GW.

Yeah, he was supposed to be the Bush kid that ran for President, but George beat him to a governorship, which meant he won reelection first, moving him up the line. Opposed to George, Jeb is much more articulate and moderate. Maybe that's partially due to becoming a Catholic and not thinking the end of the world is near as some loony Protestant sects seem to.

Wake me up for polling data 2 weeks prior to Nov. 2nd.

That early?

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by The Mad Monk
Um...did you check the projected votes map on that site?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep10p.html

Wow, Bush picked up a lot of support in a single day.

[Dinner]

This election will be close but the only way I see Kerry pulling ahead is if he stops dwelling on the past (his Vietnam record and Bush's past) and starts dealing with how he will make the future better then Bush will.