What will happen if China invades Taiwan?

[GePap]

Russia has very little levarage with China- its economy is tiny in relation-while Russia is a tempting oil supplier to China, that is a two way road, and Russia is China's main arms dealer, but again, Russia needs the trade as much as China does. Plus Russia could simply not put any military pressure on China whatsoever.

The US and Japan are the only two states that could add anything in terms of military power to the region.

[Pekka]

Right, agreed, but I do think Russia plays the key role as to what the US will do in terms of retaliating. Russia won't attack China. But what they say on the matter will have some weight.

[Mordoch]

Originally posted by Cruddy


All very well... but it misses the point of a) quality of trained pilots and b) quantity of useful ammunition.

If Taiwan doesn't have a suffiency of both, then those planes aren't going to be any use at all.

While Taiwan has some issues on the subject of trained pilots, China has issues with the training of their pilots as well. Israel maintains an excellent airforce with a smaller population base, so it isn't if Taiwan is incapable of having enough trained pilots for their airforce. I'd also expect the best pilots to be flying the F-16s and Mirage 2000s, the fact Taiwan is on the defensive suggests some of these pilots could fly other aircraft if they get shot down.

Ammunition wise Taiwan is actually in good shape. Generally what has happened over the years is that Taiwan buys the US's newest missile technology or ordinance, and stores the older stuff just in case they need it. For instance when Taiwan got the AMRAAM missile, they kept the older Sparrow missiles in storage. Its also likely that with regards to ordinance like these, the US could fly additional amounts in via air transports once hostilities started.

[GePap]

Well, the Chinese could always adopt a "battle of britain" strategy and throw massive air strikes at Taiwans airfields plus ballistic missile attacks to try to take out Taiwans airforce in a few costly but decisive strikes, thus gaining air superiority and making it difficult to resupply Taiwan by air.

[Whoha]

the chinese could also get 200 million people to cannon ball into the straight at the same time.

[Ted Striker]

Where they gonna get enough boats to ship all of those people?

[Atahualpa]

I would think that Taiwan would have to go with fighters to intercept Chinese fighters, superior they might be, but I believe China would gain air superiority. THe problem is, China can come in and bomb the **** out of Taiwan, where as the other way aroudn it wouldnt' happen. Strategically speaking, if I was Taiwan, I'd use the fighters to bomb China, not so much to go against Chinese fighters.

I think its better to fight a defensive war. If one can hold this for some time, the international community will go with Taiwan and pressure on china will become bigger and bigger. Of course they will not want to pull out for (stupid) pride reasons so WW3 is gonna rock and roll.

Pride is stupid, admitting something to be sensed as weak is stupid. Everyone is stupid who cant admit that he made an error. See, it will lead to WW3. I just proved it.

[Mordoch]

Originally posted by Pekka
I would think that Taiwan would have to go with fighters to intercept Chinese fighters, superior they might be, but I believe China would gain air superiority. THe problem is, China can come in and bomb the **** out of Taiwan, where as the other way aroudn it wouldnt' happen. Strategically speaking, if I was Taiwan, I'd use the fighters to bomb China, not so much to go against Chinese fighters. A fair amount of fighters would be used to that, but only to help AA and attack Chinese ground troops and bases in Taiwan or near it. IF it was possible, I'd use the rest to bomb China, to make the reckon the power of series of powerful airstrikes against military targets.

China would face serious problems however, if the US would step in to defend Taiwan and fight the Chinese air forces. That battle would be tough, and I believe if US would be very committed, it would win that battle.

But in the case of large surprise attack, disabling communications, satellites and Taiwanese AA and air force fields simultaniously, it could be over in one night. If the destruction delivered in that single massive attack would be succesful enough, I believe the US and the rest of the world would just result into pleading China to leave Taiwan and wouldn't retaliate with big military force. Unless Russia would support that idea with 100% backing.

You're drasticly overestimating how much force China can suddenly apply to Taiwan. China has about 550 conventional missiles able to reach Taiwan, but at least most of them have accuracy problems that reduce their tactical effectiveness substancially. On China's airforce, with the exception of the newest fighters, most of them have major range limitations. Given the limited number of Chinese airbases close to Taiwan, only a limited portion of China's airforce can be utilized against Taiwan as the same time. China also lacks significant quantities of smart weaponry and this reduces their airforce's effectiveness substancially. Given constant monitering of China by Taiwanese radar, the only portion of China's forces that can catch Taiwan by surprise is the missiles.

You're also drasticly underestimating the extent Taiwan has gone to in order to protect its forces from aerial and missile attack. For instance, Taiwan now has two airbases such as this one under a mountain that Taiwan can locate most of its airforce in if hotilities occur!

(Originally from an article in the UK Times)

Wednesday May 23 2001

Secret world that guards Taiwan

FROM OLIVER AUGUST IN HUALIEN...

Underground flight crews arm and fuel the jets before they fly out of the hillside protected by anti-aircraft guns. On their return, the planes touch down on a shortened runway along the tunnel entrance before disappearing into the caves again. Mr Tian’s shop is near Taiwan’s most sensitive defence installation, the Jiashan airbase. More than 120 fighter jets are hidden inside a mountain to foil Chinese attackers. Like the TV Thunderbirds of International Rescue, which were launched from caves carved into the rocks of Tracy Island, they take off through tunnels doubling as runways.

Underground flight crews arm and fuel the jets before they fly out of the hillside protected by anti-aircraft guns. On their return, the planes touch down on a shortened runway along the tunnel entrance before disappearing into the caves again.

Taiwan’s military regards Jiashan as its last line of defence against a Chinese invasion. If the People’s Liberation Army ever managed to land in the island, the mountain base would form the centre of Taiwanese resistance.

The caves are buried under hundreds of feet of granite and the steel doors at the end of the tunnels apparently can withstand nuclear blasts.

Arthur Ding, of the Institute of International Relations, said: "The mountains around Hualien are so steep that any incoming missile would have a trajectory problem. After flying horizontally across the Taiwan Strait the missile would have to clear the top of the mountain and then immediately drop straight down to hit the base."

Military planners assume that after a strike by China, Taiwan’s fighter jets would still be able to take off unharmed. Mr Ding said: "After the first wave we have the capability to counter-attack."...

That is why the Taiwanese Government is planning a huge expansion of underground air shelters near the island’s east coast. Sean Boyne, of Jane’s Intelligence Review, said: "There are a number of others under construction, due for completion by 2003."

Like Jiashan, they may include hospitals and command centres as well as space for munitions and parts. The first new base at Chih-hang was completed in January.

Mr Boyne said: "In time of war Taiwan would move combat aircraft from vulnerable sectors on the west coast — the side facing China — to these shelters."

In an interview with The Times, Taiwan’s Defence Minister confirmed the expansion drive. Wu Shih-wen said: "We need to extend our underground shelters and make them even more resistant to attack."

http://p208.ezboard.com/ftimebomb200017873frm9.showMessage?topicID=162.topic

The only exposed portion of these airbases is the small portion of the runways that is exposed, pretty much the only thing China can do is make some craters in the runway. Taiwan has had quickly drying cement repair kits to repair any craters made in runways, but they now have aquired the Folded Glass-fibre Mat Rapid Runway Repair system for $43 million. I suspect this means Taiwan can repair damages to the runway in 30 minutes or less, and the undamaged airplanes inside the mountain airbase can start flying again.

The problem with taking out Taiwan's air defenses is that the non-mobile systems are well fortified to survive anything by a direct hit, while the mobile systems can move so the Chinese can't easily find them. Taiwan also have a very large amount of air defenses that gives them one of the denses air defense networks in the world.

For instance, with regards to mobile defense systems, to Taiwan by the US from 1996 to 2000 includes...
"Eight M-48A2 Chaparral anti-aircraft missile launchers, 148 Chaparral anti-aircraft missiles, 465 Hughes Stinger-RMP missiles; 55 dual-mount-ed Stinger missile launch systems, 1,299 Stinger-RMP missiles, 74 standard vehicle mounted launchers, 96 High-Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMPW) Vehicles, 61 Dual Mount STINGER Missile Systems consisting of: 61 Dual Mount STINGER (DMS) launchers (includes elevation assembly, tripod assembly, and sights)."

http://www.fas.org/asmp/profiles/taiwan_armstable.htm

Taiwan also has the Skyguard air defense systems with the Sparrow missile addition, and is now deploying the shorter ranged domestically produced Antellope air defense system that is armed with domestically produced Tien Chien missiles. Taiwan also has longer ranged systems, such as the 3 PAC 2 Patriot Missile batteries they currently have that will be bolstered by the aquisition of 3 new PAC 3 Patriot Missile batteries with the older ones being upgraded to the PAC 3 standard. Along with having their anti-missile capabilities, these batteries can also be used in an anti-aircraft role. Taiwan also has 20 I-Hawk long ranged anti-aircraft missile batteries. Taiwan also has an increasingly large number of long ranged Tien Kung I and II anti-aircraft missiles batteries which are located in fixed fortified positions. Taking out all these air defense would be one heck of a task.

Even if by some miracle one China has enough transports and they quickly take out both Taiwan's air defense systems and their large number of anti-shipping missiles, the US is still quite capable of stopping a Chinese invasion if they intervene. For instance the US has 2 squadrons of B-52 bombers in Guam that are currently able to carry 12 Harpoon anti-shipping missiles apiece and have the range to reach the area where the could fire their weapons at targets in the Taiwan Straight. With each Harpoon missile capable of sinking a Chinese tranport, such itervention could doom the Chinese attack force that still has to worry about the large Taiwanese army that will be acting as a defensive force. China would also need to worry about US nuclear submarines in the area, such as the Seawolf class sub armed which can be armed with entirely or a combinations of either 50 Mark 48 torpedos or 50 Harpoon anti-shipping missiles. There's no way you scenario is occuring anytime soon.

[Mordoch]

Originally posted by GePap
Well, the Chinese could always adopt a "battle of britain" strategy and throw massive air strikes at Taiwans airfields plus ballistic missile attacks to try to take out Taiwans airforce in a few costly but decisive strikes, thus gaining air superiority and making it difficult to resupply Taiwan by air.

Read my recent post on this issue this really isn't possible to do entirely.

Germany would have had a really touch time taking out Britain's air force with airstrikes on their airfields, if the airfields were built under mountains!

[Mordoch]

Originally posted by GePap
China would not need to invade-the Chinese Strategy would be a blockade of the island to kill it economically. They could then take potshots with missiles and by air in the next few years.

They could always just nuke it back to the ceramic stage but then that sort of defeats the purpose.

While the blockade strategy has a beter chance of working within a few years, there are major difficulties implementing it.

The Taiwan Strait is a high traffic area with trade between a variety of countries. You can't immediately tell whether a transport ship is going to Taiwan or South Korea based upon it simply being in the straight. The transport ship can suddenly make a turn towards a Taiwanese port when it reaches the right position in the straight itself. China will also have severe problems intercepting transports that get fairly close to Taiwan since Taiwan can attack Chinese surface targets with HF-II anti-shipping missiles. In order to impose an effective blockade, China would not merely need to block off the Taiwan Strait, but also the area immediately east of Taiwan, severely inconveniencing trade for the entire region. This would have serious diplomatic consequences just by itself for China. (Even Russia would be affected by the blockade in this scenario.)

Of course much of the blockade running would occur on the Eastern coast of Taiwan. Most of China's airforce can't even reach there, along with the remaining aircraft being generally subjected to SAM attack as they try to reach their objectives. Realisticly China trying to gain air superiority in the Pacific Ocean to the east of Taiwan would be pretty hopeless, especially with the fuel advantages that Taiwan's own planes would enjoy. This also means that Chinese surface ships would be pretty much dead meat in that same area as they would be subjected to attacks from Taiwanese aircraft, such as presumably the IDF fighter with air launched HF-2 missiles by 2006.

Of course, one scenario has China using its submarine force to blockade the eastern side of Taiwan. Unless China wants to risk sinking uknowing third party vessals from countries such as Japan, they would probably need to announce the blockade a couple of days before they actually start sinking vessals. This would be necessary because it presumably take at least this long for all the transport ships to get the word, and Chinese subs definately couldn't risk trying to surface and warn off the transports in the face of Taiwanese air superiority which could quickly react to reported Chinese sub sightings. A couple of days would give US SSNs time to react and redeploy to start sinking the Chinse SSKs to the east of Taiwan, a role they are highly effective in. By 2006, the US SSN subforce should consist of 50 Los Angeles class subs, 2 Virginia class subs, and 3 Seawolf class subs. All of these submarines would outclass the ships in China's submarine force.

http://www.hazegray.org/worldnav/usa/submar.htm#ssn

This issue would also increase the time Taiwan has until the blockade really starts to have any impact.

ASW warfare is actually a role that most of Taiwan's newly aquired ships are highly effective in. Even the Ching Chiang-class patrol boats have some ASW warefare capability. Both the Knox and Perry class frigates have substancial ASW capability while I suspect that the Kang Ding class frigates opperating in a sub hunting role would be particularly dangerous with their low sonar profile and sonar systems to catch unwary Chinese subs. By 2006, Taiwan should start receiving some of the 4 Kidd Class Destroyers it has purchased from the US. These destroyers are actually highly effective in the ASW role and could possibly be part of an ASW taskforce which includes a few Ching Chiang patrol boats equipped with depth charges. The P3s that Taiwan is purchasing now would likely be available and play a role in this campaign. A practical problem for China is that the further from Taiwan that their subs try to intercept transports heading to Taiwan, Most of China's submarines will still not be Kilo class ones, and will be particularly vulnerable to Taiwan's ASW strategies, let along those of the US.

As China loses more of its subs, it should be increasingly obvious to Taiwan they China can't continue its blockade indefinately. Even if the blockade does cause serious problems, if Taiwan is aware that China has lost much of its sub fleet and can't keep up the blockade much longer, Taiwan is extremly unlikely to give into Chinese demands under these circumstances. Without subs, China would no longer be able to effectively impose a blockade, and this would end in a highly embarassing diplomatic disaster for them.

The problem is that a blockade gives the US too much time to react, and US intervention means the blockade is going to be a miserable failure. Missile and airforce strikes against Taiwan simply will make it more likely that the US will intervene militarily.

[Ted Striker]

Well done Mordoch

Taiwan is nearly impregnable in my opinion.

[Pekka]

Well overestimating is more safe then underestimating aye?

Atahualpa, it is defensive to attack an enemy in their own soil if they started attacking you first. Furthermore when you limit your strikes into military targets, how is that not defensive fighting? The idea of that is not to beat the China in their own land, the idea is to hope to gain momentum and hopefully the initiative. Keep'em worried about that, and little distraction. Better have some guys fighting in China than everyone in Taiwan.

[Q Classic]

All very well... but it misses the point of a) quality of trained pilots and b) quantity of useful ammunition.

If Taiwan doesn't have a suffiency of both, then those planes aren't going to be any use at all.

taiwan's air force is rather well trained.

One point that hasn't been mentioned yet; Taiwan's attitude to world wide patent and copyright laws. Taiwan ignores them, pirates the hell out of a lot of designers and developers, and contributes zero in return.

and you think that china for some reason doesn't do the same thing?
besides, taiwan has come up with a few original things...
let's see:
countries in the wto which contribute zero and have a high incidence of piracy:
albania
angola
bulgaria
croatia
georgia
kyrgyz republic
romania
...
among others
why didn't taiwan get in? something about diplomatic recognition...

[Q Classic]

if, in the unlikely scenario that china were to defeat taiwan, you'd most likely see a shift in regional politics away from the united states and towards china.

[:) Smiley]

This would make an awesome RTS game, at the least a Civ2 scenario.