Canadian Election Tread (part deux)

[Tingkai]

Re: Re: NDP minority government

Originally posted by Wezil
That is dreaming in colour. Have you considered the nightmare scenario for the NDP? If this becomes a two party race the NDP runs the risk of being squeezed severely.....

Regardless, the NDP will not form a government b/c they will need huge seat totals in Ontario. With the legacy of Bob Rae the NDP will be hard pressed to gather any significant seats here.

Well, speaking of Bob Rae, before he got elected no one believed that the NDP had a snowball chance in hell of winning.

Beside, Bob Rae is long-time history. People in Ontario are much more likely to think of the current Ontario Liberal government and its broken promises.

I don't think the NDP will capitalise on their opportunity because they're too busy in the trenches to see what is happening, and because they don't believe they can win. But that doesn't change the fact that the opening is there to be exploited.

[Wezil]

Ahh, np.

Didn't think I warranted a drive-by sarcasm shot, but....

Btw, why is there no/little talk of the whole Charter/notwithstanding issue?

I'm perplexed by the Liberal position:

The Charter is not a flawed document therefor you should not use the 'notwithstanding clause'.



The notwithstanding clause is in the very document the Liberals claim is perfect. How can its use be wrong?

Also, keep in mind it was a Liberal government that enacted the Charter (notwithstanding clause and all...).

Can anyone explain how they can square this circle?

[Wezil]

Re: Re: Re: NDP minority government

Originally posted by Tingkai


Well, speaking of Bob Rae, before he got elected no one believed that the NDP had a snowball chance in hell of winning.

Quite right. We were mad as hell at David Peterson and the Tories were still in their post-Davis funk. That said, the 'protest vote' we made turned disastrous for this province. We won't make that mistake again (hence the two party race I mentioned above).

Beside, Bob Rae is long-time history. People in Ontario are much more likely to think of the current Ontario Liberal government and its broken promises.

Might be your age speaking, but it really wasn't that long ago and the damage the Rae NDP government did, took years to mend. We remember. Bank on it.

I don't think the NDP will capitalise on their opportunity because they're too busy in the trenches to see what is happening, and because they don't believe they can win. But that doesn't change the fact that the opening is there to be exploited.

Again I agree to a point. I think there may be opportunity to pick up some seats (if the two party race doesn't materialize). We disagree on the extent of the opening however. I see very few NDP seats in this province. Perhaps a seat or two in the southwest and a couple in TO if the Liberal support there follows the rest of the province and starts declining (essential for Jumpin Jack to win his seat btw).

I won't pretend to have my finger on the pulse of the rest of the nation however. How the NDP will fare outside Ontario, I will leave to others to predict...

[Tingkai]

Rae had the bad luck of being elected premier when the North American economy was in a recession. He took a lot of heat for things he couldn't control. The other thing that really killed him was photo radar.

Following up on the NDP will to win, of the people who plan to vote NDP, only 12% believe the NDP could win. 79% of Liberal supporters say their party will win. 55% of Conservative supporters say the conservatives will win.

What I find interesting is that the Liberals are still polling 40% in Ontario, even though one poll found that 51% of Ontarians say their opinion of Martin has worsened (48% nationwide).

15% of Ontarians say their opinion of Layton has worsened (13% nationwide). 18% for Harper (17% nationwide)

[Wezil]

Rae and the NDP used lots of excuses to explain/justify their bad government, but in the end we saw them for what they were - excuses (as McGuinty is trying to do now).

Photo radar was a sympton of the party's main fault (tax and spend).
You neglected to mention 'Rae Days'....? Even NDP'ers were pissed at that one.

The Liberal number in Ontario I find suspect. I would trust it more if the TO numbers were taken out of the equation. There is more anger outside TO than in the city, although my guess is that Liberal support in Toronto will break as well before the 28th.

[Asher]

[Asher]

The flipside (scanned by yours truly)

[Wezil]

I'm not getting the attachment...

Was it funny?

[Asher]

They're Marijuana Party leaflets.

[Wezil]

Smoke 'em if ya got 'em.

[notyoueither]

What Canadians really want to do!

http://www.whackthepm.ca

[cinch]

Re: NDP minority government

Originally posted by Tingkai

With the Conservatives stagnating and the Liberals in decline, the possibility is real for an NDP election win.

The NDP couldn't win this election if they were led by the lovechild of Wayne Gretzky and Jesus Christ himself (or would that just be masturbation? ).

The only way I could see the NDPs winning an election in this country would be if the Libs become totally defunct and the NDP realigns to become the new dominant centre-left party. With the platform that they have now, they can but only hope for a third place prize (and they won't even get that, thanks to Le Bloc).

[cinch]

Klein pondering fall vote in Alberta
Last Updated Sun, 13 Jun 2004 18:09:45
EDMONTON - Alberta Premier Ralph Klein is seriously considering calling a fall election. "I've got the burning in my belly and we want to get it done," he said.

"You know we were planning on March anyways. I don't know that two or three months will make much difference anyways. But I haven't made up my mind yet."


While a vote in March would continue the practice of the past two elections, going to the polls in the fall would save the government about $3 million because it would render two byelections unnecessary.

Moreover, a fall election would also avoid possible conflicts with two big events – the province's 2005 centennial celebrations, and the Queen's visit.




______________________________

We'll have to dig up some Alberta polling numbers pretty soon, but I'll be SHOCKED if the provincial Libs make any gains this fall.

I actually might vote provincial NDP when Ralphy calls. They're a bit less extremist than their federal cohorts, and Brian Mason may be the most responsible member of the Legislative Assembly.

Plus, then I can wear a Raj Against The Machine t-shirt. I missed out on it the first time around!

[cinch]

Aaaaaaaaaaaaand the first big debate is tomorrow. En francaise.

And the Greens aren't invited. Dang. I really don't understand that. They have a candidate in every riding; they should get a podium.

Hopefully next time.

[notyoueither]

Because a handfull of media executives are more qualified than the rest of us Canadians to decide who gets several millions of dollars worth of promotional time. So they should get to influence the results, but nobody else should.