Canadian Election Tread (part deux)

[Ben Kenobi]

NYE:

My figures are based on giving the Conservatives about 80% of the PC vote in addition to the base for the Alliance.

The only really tough part of my numbers is figuring out where Liberal support splits.

In order to raise the Bloc numbers, I need to bounce about 5% of the Liberal supporters to the Bloc, and another 10% to the NDP, and then a few percent to the Greens.

To get about 28% support for the Liberals, I still have to suppress turnout a little.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
NYE:

No.

I don;t think it's reasonable to assume that the old Tory vote will transfer directly to the NCons everywhere, but especially in Quebec.

[KrazyHorse]

That's what I've been saying.

My prediction remains what it always has: 45 Bloc, 30 Libs

i.e. Bloc landslide

Overall, I think we'll see 140-145 Libs (I've pretty much decided that they're not making majority this time) in a minority with 20-25 NDPers.

I don't think the Conservatives will do much better than 100 seats, with the Bloc pulling in 45

[notyoueither]

I think we may be shocked come election night.

I know what I'm doing after work on the 28th.

[KrazyHorse]

I'll agree that this is probably the hardest election to call in a long while. I know I'll be glued to whatever means of communication gets me the quickest riding-by-riding updates.

I've got my ballot and will mail it in on June 9th (the day the list of candidates is finalised).

[Ben Kenobi]

Overall, I think we'll see 140-145 Libs (I've pretty much decided that they're not making majority this time) in a minority with 20-25 NDPers.

I don't think the Conservatives will do much better than 100 seats, with the Bloc pulling in 45

45 + 25 + 100 + 145 =

70 + 245 = 315.

Yeah, that works. You could even drop the Conservatives down to 90, and still have all your numbers work.

Trouble is, the support for the Conservatives would have to drop and the Liberals would have to rise.

I don't see the Liberals forming a government, majority or minority just with the current trends, let alone what may happen over the next few weeks.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


45 + 25 + 100 + 145 =

70 + 245 = 315.

Uhh...if you've got two numbers with a swing of 5 each you should probably take the middle of the range.

In other words the combined Lib-NDP seats will be ~165

By the way, why did Harper beg off the town hall meeting where the candidates were quizzed by uni students?

[notyoueither]

Don't know, but he has been very set on keeping his own schedule, and not buckling under to pressure exerted by others to do it their way.

[Ben Kenobi]

News to me.

I was just doing a quick calculation to make sure that given the high range, you would still have enough seats to cover the totals.

Another problem for me is that I can't predict new ridings.

[joncha]

I think support for the Liberals has pretty much found its bottom, and support for the Conservatives has plateaued. With a good bounce in the next couple weeks, the Liberals could get close to majority territory again.

[notyoueither]

That's not what opinion trackers are saying, Jon. They say the Liberals may be nowhere near bottom.

[notyoueither]

I'd be shocked if 32% of Canadians are life-time, never waver, Liberals.

[joncha]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
By the way, why did Harper beg off the town hall meeting where the candidates were quizzed by uni students?

His strategy is to act like the front runner, a la Schwartzenegger, and not get into any situation where he has to face potential voters unless he has to. So far it seems to be working for him.

[joncha]

Originally posted by notyoueither
That's not what opinion trackers are saying, Jon. They say the Liberals may be nowhere near bottom.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens, then. I think we'll see more voters take a critical look at Harper now that he's looking more and more like the front-runner.

All he needs is for another of his candidates to say something dumb, and his numbers might start slipping.

[Ben Kenobi]

All he needs is for another of his candidates to say something dumb, and his numbers might start slipping.

Gee, I'll remember to use that same standard for Layton. Judge the leader by his candidates.