Canadian Election: It's On

[Ben Kenobi]

LIB 31

Seems this is the largest difference in our tallies. The rest is remarkably similar.

Are you counting for the Bloq support to be concentrated heavily in a few ridings to squander their massive lead in the polls? The Liberals only have 28% support, compared to the 44% for the Bloq.

[notyoueither]

The only things I would argue with Jon about are the Liberal numbers in Quebec and Ontario. They don't jive with what I am hearing from here and there.

I'm sort of wondering how the Liberals could grab more seats with a lower percentage of the vote in Ontario. I am also led to believe the level of pissed-offishness in Quebec is greater than Krazy grants and that the Bloc could well get more seats there, or perhaps a Conservative or NDP victory or 3.

[Ben Kenobi]

NYE:

The NDP are only sitting at 6% in Quebec, only 2 ahead of the Greens.

Conservatives are now up to 13%, which holds some promises.

When I did my analysis I get a fair number of seats with the Bloq dominating and the Conservatives finishing second.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Go look up ghe sdefiniton of sovereing you twit.

Sovereing means habving sono superior authority over you.

No, it doesn't. The United States are a federation of sovereigns - hence the federal government. It is the very nature of such a federation that the federal government is supreme to the individual state governments within certain constitutional limits. Go read up on US History, OK? Especially some of the stuff from the people who lived at the time the Constitution was written.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
NYE:

The NDP are only sitting at 6% in Quebec, only 2 ahead of the Greens.

Conservatives are now up to 13%, which holds some promises.

When I did my analysis I get a fair number of seats with the Bloq dominating and the Conservatives finishing second.

I'm going on reports of anglo federalists so pissed off they said they might vote Bloc. When the electorate is that volatile, all that has to happen is a credible alternative from the NDP or Conservatives emerge for that fury to coalesce around in the Montreal - western border areas (or where ever else the federalists are a large majority).

I see the NDP having as good a chance at that as Harper. Maybe more. The French language debate could prove decisive.

[joncha]

I went through and looked at it riding-by-riding as much as possible. I think 40+ seats constitutes a Bloc landslide, and I'm not sure what other ridings they could win. With Liberal support sagging so much, the Conservatives or even the NDP [ ] might be able to pick off one of their seats, but I doubt it.

I really think my projection is about as far as the Liberals can sink this time out. They may even see a rebound as more voters take a critical look at Harper. I was generous in giving so many Ontario seats to the Conservatives, by election time it may be down to 20 or so.

My "hedged" outcome is this:

Liberals        120-140
Conservatives   90-110
Bloc Quebecois  40-50
NDP             30-45

[KrazyHorse]

I'm going on reports of anglo federalists so pissed off they said they might vote Bloc

I really don't think this is realistic. They're a lot more likely to send a message by voting Conservative than Bloc. The polarisation against the Bloc by anglo voters is not something that will change in the foreseeable future.

Do you have any poll numbers backing this assessment up or is this relying on anecdotal "evidence"?

[Kuciwalker]

500 posts

time to die, thread

[KrazyHorse]

45 seats is a Bloc landslide. Every seat over and above that must come due to significant vote-splitting between the Grits and Tories. Above 55 seats is like claiming that the moon's made of green cheese...

Same reason the Liberals can't win more than 45 seats in Quebec...

[joncha]

The new thread can be found here.

[Ben Kenobi]

I see the NDP having as good a chance at that as Harper. Maybe more. The French language debate could prove decisive.

That would be something to see.

I can't see any reason why folks in Quebec would favour the NDP over the Bloq or the Liberals.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse


I really don't think this is realistic. They're a lot more likely to send a message by voting Conservative than Bloc. The polarisation against the Bloc by anglo voters is not something that will change in the foreseeable future.

Do you have any poll numbers backing this assessment up or is this relying on anecdotal "evidence"?

Some anecdotal, and I admit I am not an expert on Quebec or Ontario politics, by any means. However, the poll I posted just a way back in this thread had the Tories 3 points ahead of the Liberals in Ontario. Also, it is reported that the fury with the Liberals over the Sponsorship mess is highest in Quebec, not sure of where those polls are though.

What happens in ridings with a significant minority of potential Bloc supporters if the federalist vote splits between die-hard Liberals and the Tories / NDP?

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


That would be something to see.

I can't see any reason why folks in Quebec would favour the NDP over the Bloq or the Liberals.

They're not seperatists, but they're severely pissed at the Liberals while not liking the Conservatives? Sounds like NDP to me.

[Ben Kenobi]

What happens in ridings with a significant minority of potential Bloc supporters if the federalist vote splits between die-hard Liberals and the Tories / NDP?

The conservatives win in that situation, since they might stand at 15% or so.

Oddly, the Conservatives stand higher in some of the Bloq seats than the ones controlled by the Liberals.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by notyoueither


Some anecdotal, and I admit I am not an expert on Quebec or Ontario politics, by any means. However, the poll I posted just a way back in this thread had the Tories 3 points ahead of the Liberals in Ontario. Also, it is reported that the fury with the Liberals over the Sponsorship mess is highest in Quebec, not sure of where those polls are though.

What happens in ridings with a significant minority of potential Bloc supporters if the federalist vote splits between die-hard Liberals and the Tories / NDP?

About 10 seats which are majority federalist might be affected. It happened in 1993. 20 seats or so have so little Bloc support that to ask for them to go BQ is silly.

The problem with this scenario is that the new Conservatives have really not done anything to endear themselves to French Canadians. This is the demographic that's important in aforementioned weakly federalist ridings.