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Very interesting article. I'm not sure who the writer is, but he has the Bloc laying seige to the Liberals in and around Montreal. Yikes.
Additionally, if any of you are looking for a nice item on your resume, they seem to be in need of copy editors.
Additionally, if any of you are looking for a nice item on your resume, they seem to be in need of copy editors.
The Hill Times, May 31st, 2004
BACKROOMS
By Angelo Persichilli
Libs to lose some strongholds
Keyes, Goodale, Phinney, Lastewska and Valeri in tough battles to hold onto seats
TORONTO--Paul Martin's strategy for this federal election was based on a simple concept: he knew the Liberals were going to lose some seats in Ontario because of the merger on the right, but thought he would gain more seats in Québec because the Bloc Québécois was dead. His Liberal strategists also hoped they would win more seats in British Columbia where Paul Martin was much more popular than Jean Chrétien.
Well, it looks like their theory was right in one place. In Ontario they're going to lose seats. Unfortunately, the Grits will also lose some Liberal strongholds.
Former Jean Chrétien Cabinet minister Sheila Copps declared to me on my CHIN radio program: "In Hamilton, they can lose all five seats to the NDP and the Conservatives."
Of course, that's the worst-case scenario and there's some sour grapes there. But, even some people close to the campaign admit that Revenue Minister Stan Keyes' riding "is gone to the NDP." Even the powerful electoral machine of Transportation Minister Tony Valeri has been working overtime to retain the lead. This is almost the same area where the provincial Liberals lost to the NDP in a recent provincial byelection. And it's the same area the provincial Liberals had won in October with Domenic Agostino who did not wage a serious campaign. Mr. Agostino died last March and when the Libs returned to the polls, they lost badly to the NDP, and it was even before the provincial budget!
Federal Liberal MP Beth Phinney, first elected in 1998 and who won her riding with 50 per cent of the vote in the last election, is also in trouble in Hamilton Mountain.
The same "disease" is spreading out in the entire Niagara Peninsula.
In St. Catharines, Walt Lastweka, first in elected in 1993 and who won the riding in 2000 with 44 per cent of the vote, is facing fierce competition from a renewed Conservative Party. In the past, this was a Tory stronghold with the popular Joe Reid. Just to give an idea of the problems the Liberals are facing in the Niagara Peninsula, Mr. Lastweka won in the 2000 election with 20,992 votes over the Alliance candidate Randy Dumond who took 15,871. However, the then Conservative candidate Ken Atkinson won 6,522 votes: it takes a simple mathematical calculation to draw your own conclusions.
Next week, I will examine in detail the entire picture, however, I can say right now that there are almost 30 ridings across the country where the Liberals are facing the same challenge as Mr. Lastewka. Also in Ontario, Liberal MP Joe Jordan, first elected in 1997, won by only 55 votes in Leeds-Grenville and with 39 per cent of the vote. He's in trouble.
Yukon Liberal incumbent Larry Bagnell, first elected in 2000, won by only 70 votes and with 32 per cent of the vote.
In New Brunswick, Liberal incumbent Andy Savoy, first elected in 2000, won by 147 votes and with only 33 per cent of the vote in Tobique-Mactaquac.
In Alberta, Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan, who won with 38 per cent of the vote in Edmonton West in 2000, is in a tough battle.
And in Saskatchewan, Finance Minister Ralph Goodale, who won the last election by 1,752 votes and 41 per cent of the vote, is also in a tough slog.
There are some tough street fights also in Toronto with the NDP and the Conservatives poised to make gains. One of the ridings to watch closely is Toronto-Danforth where the Liberal incumbent, the very popular Dennis Mills, is up against two national leaders: NDP Jack Layton and Green Party's Jim Harris.
Mills, along with Maria Minna in Toronto's Beaches-East York riding and Tony Ianno in Trinity-Spadina are trying to form the Maginot line against the NDP. The Conservative are aiming at a couple ridings in the downtown-East End of the megacity: in danger is Foreign Minister Bill Graham, and John Godfrey. Jean Augustine faces stiff competition from Conservatives in Etobicoke Lakeshore. Another Liberal stronghold, the riding represented by former minister David Collenette, might well be going to the Conservative candidate, former provincial Tory minister Dave Johnston. It looks like Mr. Collenette doesn't even have a Liberal sign on his home lawn.
But it's not just in Toronto, where the Conservatives are shopping for new seats. The Liberals can easily lose Elinor Caplan's riding of Thornhill as well as some seats in Mississauga were the in-fighting from the hastily-organized and nasty nominations have eroded internal support for Liberals. Paul Szabo and Carolyn Parrish have to work overtime in order to retain the seat for the Liberals and Belinda Stronach has a good chance of winning the Markham riding for the Conservatives. Also in danger for the Liberals are the ridings in Pickering and Oak Ridge.
In Québec, the Liberals are facing huge challenges. The nomination process has damaged the Liberal chances to win the next election more than the organizers believe. Paul Martin's policy to address the so-called democratic deficit has miserably backfired. Opening all the ridings to challenges has destroyed the delicate internal balance in many ridings fuelling divisions and feuds that, at best, will leave a lot of the Liberal voters at home.
Furthermore, the initiatives of Liberal organizers to parachute candidates in some ridings has killed the credibility of the policy to make nominations more democratic. In Montreal, the sudden resignation of Yvon Charbonneau in the new riding of Honoré-Mercier and the parachuting of Pablo Rodriguez has upset local Liberals who feel betrayed and fooled by the central organization. There are rumours that a prominent Canadian Italian Liberal in Montreal will be the candidate for the Conservatives in the same riding: "We will not win but we will take away enough votes to make the Bloc candidate win," one Conservative source told The Hill Times.
This is one on the safest Liberal ridings in Québec. The same source told The Hill Times that in Montreal there are "only a few seats that can be considered safe. Amongst them the one represented by [Massimo] Pacetti, [Denis] Coderre and [Paul] Martin. All the others need immediate attention."
Immediately outside Montreal, the Liberals are exposed to the attacks from the Bloc. According to some, incumbent Liberal Nick Discepola has to work hard to win his riding of Vaudreuuil-Soulanges, Que., and the riding of former prime minister Jean Chrétien -- Saint-Maurice -- might go to the Bloc. In the 2000 election, Mr. Chrétien won with 23,345 votes against François Marchand of the Bloc who took in 16,821 votes. However, at that time, the NDP got only 359 votes and the Conservatives 966 votes. And, most of all, they had a prime minister running. This time around the music might be very different.
Name recognition will also be a problem for the Liberals in other parts of Canada: At least 30 well-known MPs and Ministers are not running in this election and in all those ridings there is an opportunity for other parties to make inroads into Liberal territory.
The campaign is still long and many things can happen. There are still 28 days remaining as of Monday, May 31. Many voters are still undecided, and, even those expressing a preference, are leaving a lot of space for changes. If the Liberal support is not solid, the Conservative and the NDP vote is not either. Things can change in either direction, and, there are two televised debates the leaders have to go through. However, it looks like, at least at the beginning of the campaign, neither of the four parties seems to have a creative agenda able to capture the imagination of the voters. This means that the election will be decided by the mistakes made by the opponents, more then the creativity of their own strategists.
And speaking about creativity. It was a stroke of creativity that made Conservative incumbent Scott Reid last week muse about the redundancy of bilingualism in Canada. The Liberals immediately jumped on it and Stephen Harper was quick to put out the fire by firing Reid as the party's critic for official languages. However, statements like those are more problematic for the Liberals than they are for the Conservatives: according to the response from the public, the policy of bilingualism is not very popular in Canada, including in Québec. The Conservatives might gain votes saying what many Canadians believe on this subject.
Angelo Persichilli is political editor of Corriere Canadese, Toronto's Italian language daily newspaper.
Persichilli@corriere.com
The Hill Times
BACKROOMS
By Angelo Persichilli
Libs to lose some strongholds
Keyes, Goodale, Phinney, Lastewska and Valeri in tough battles to hold onto seats
TORONTO--Paul Martin's strategy for this federal election was based on a simple concept: he knew the Liberals were going to lose some seats in Ontario because of the merger on the right, but thought he would gain more seats in Québec because the Bloc Québécois was dead. His Liberal strategists also hoped they would win more seats in British Columbia where Paul Martin was much more popular than Jean Chrétien.
Well, it looks like their theory was right in one place. In Ontario they're going to lose seats. Unfortunately, the Grits will also lose some Liberal strongholds.
Former Jean Chrétien Cabinet minister Sheila Copps declared to me on my CHIN radio program: "In Hamilton, they can lose all five seats to the NDP and the Conservatives."
Of course, that's the worst-case scenario and there's some sour grapes there. But, even some people close to the campaign admit that Revenue Minister Stan Keyes' riding "is gone to the NDP." Even the powerful electoral machine of Transportation Minister Tony Valeri has been working overtime to retain the lead. This is almost the same area where the provincial Liberals lost to the NDP in a recent provincial byelection. And it's the same area the provincial Liberals had won in October with Domenic Agostino who did not wage a serious campaign. Mr. Agostino died last March and when the Libs returned to the polls, they lost badly to the NDP, and it was even before the provincial budget!
Federal Liberal MP Beth Phinney, first elected in 1998 and who won her riding with 50 per cent of the vote in the last election, is also in trouble in Hamilton Mountain.
The same "disease" is spreading out in the entire Niagara Peninsula.
In St. Catharines, Walt Lastweka, first in elected in 1993 and who won the riding in 2000 with 44 per cent of the vote, is facing fierce competition from a renewed Conservative Party. In the past, this was a Tory stronghold with the popular Joe Reid. Just to give an idea of the problems the Liberals are facing in the Niagara Peninsula, Mr. Lastweka won in the 2000 election with 20,992 votes over the Alliance candidate Randy Dumond who took 15,871. However, the then Conservative candidate Ken Atkinson won 6,522 votes: it takes a simple mathematical calculation to draw your own conclusions.
Next week, I will examine in detail the entire picture, however, I can say right now that there are almost 30 ridings across the country where the Liberals are facing the same challenge as Mr. Lastewka. Also in Ontario, Liberal MP Joe Jordan, first elected in 1997, won by only 55 votes in Leeds-Grenville and with 39 per cent of the vote. He's in trouble.
Yukon Liberal incumbent Larry Bagnell, first elected in 2000, won by only 70 votes and with 32 per cent of the vote.
In New Brunswick, Liberal incumbent Andy Savoy, first elected in 2000, won by 147 votes and with only 33 per cent of the vote in Tobique-Mactaquac.
In Alberta, Deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan, who won with 38 per cent of the vote in Edmonton West in 2000, is in a tough battle.
And in Saskatchewan, Finance Minister Ralph Goodale, who won the last election by 1,752 votes and 41 per cent of the vote, is also in a tough slog.
There are some tough street fights also in Toronto with the NDP and the Conservatives poised to make gains. One of the ridings to watch closely is Toronto-Danforth where the Liberal incumbent, the very popular Dennis Mills, is up against two national leaders: NDP Jack Layton and Green Party's Jim Harris.
Mills, along with Maria Minna in Toronto's Beaches-East York riding and Tony Ianno in Trinity-Spadina are trying to form the Maginot line against the NDP. The Conservative are aiming at a couple ridings in the downtown-East End of the megacity: in danger is Foreign Minister Bill Graham, and John Godfrey. Jean Augustine faces stiff competition from Conservatives in Etobicoke Lakeshore. Another Liberal stronghold, the riding represented by former minister David Collenette, might well be going to the Conservative candidate, former provincial Tory minister Dave Johnston. It looks like Mr. Collenette doesn't even have a Liberal sign on his home lawn.
But it's not just in Toronto, where the Conservatives are shopping for new seats. The Liberals can easily lose Elinor Caplan's riding of Thornhill as well as some seats in Mississauga were the in-fighting from the hastily-organized and nasty nominations have eroded internal support for Liberals. Paul Szabo and Carolyn Parrish have to work overtime in order to retain the seat for the Liberals and Belinda Stronach has a good chance of winning the Markham riding for the Conservatives. Also in danger for the Liberals are the ridings in Pickering and Oak Ridge.
In Québec, the Liberals are facing huge challenges. The nomination process has damaged the Liberal chances to win the next election more than the organizers believe. Paul Martin's policy to address the so-called democratic deficit has miserably backfired. Opening all the ridings to challenges has destroyed the delicate internal balance in many ridings fuelling divisions and feuds that, at best, will leave a lot of the Liberal voters at home.
Furthermore, the initiatives of Liberal organizers to parachute candidates in some ridings has killed the credibility of the policy to make nominations more democratic. In Montreal, the sudden resignation of Yvon Charbonneau in the new riding of Honoré-Mercier and the parachuting of Pablo Rodriguez has upset local Liberals who feel betrayed and fooled by the central organization. There are rumours that a prominent Canadian Italian Liberal in Montreal will be the candidate for the Conservatives in the same riding: "We will not win but we will take away enough votes to make the Bloc candidate win," one Conservative source told The Hill Times.
This is one on the safest Liberal ridings in Québec. The same source told The Hill Times that in Montreal there are "only a few seats that can be considered safe. Amongst them the one represented by [Massimo] Pacetti, [Denis] Coderre and [Paul] Martin. All the others need immediate attention."
Immediately outside Montreal, the Liberals are exposed to the attacks from the Bloc. According to some, incumbent Liberal Nick Discepola has to work hard to win his riding of Vaudreuuil-Soulanges, Que., and the riding of former prime minister Jean Chrétien -- Saint-Maurice -- might go to the Bloc. In the 2000 election, Mr. Chrétien won with 23,345 votes against François Marchand of the Bloc who took in 16,821 votes. However, at that time, the NDP got only 359 votes and the Conservatives 966 votes. And, most of all, they had a prime minister running. This time around the music might be very different.
Name recognition will also be a problem for the Liberals in other parts of Canada: At least 30 well-known MPs and Ministers are not running in this election and in all those ridings there is an opportunity for other parties to make inroads into Liberal territory.
The campaign is still long and many things can happen. There are still 28 days remaining as of Monday, May 31. Many voters are still undecided, and, even those expressing a preference, are leaving a lot of space for changes. If the Liberal support is not solid, the Conservative and the NDP vote is not either. Things can change in either direction, and, there are two televised debates the leaders have to go through. However, it looks like, at least at the beginning of the campaign, neither of the four parties seems to have a creative agenda able to capture the imagination of the voters. This means that the election will be decided by the mistakes made by the opponents, more then the creativity of their own strategists.
And speaking about creativity. It was a stroke of creativity that made Conservative incumbent Scott Reid last week muse about the redundancy of bilingualism in Canada. The Liberals immediately jumped on it and Stephen Harper was quick to put out the fire by firing Reid as the party's critic for official languages. However, statements like those are more problematic for the Liberals than they are for the Conservatives: according to the response from the public, the policy of bilingualism is not very popular in Canada, including in Québec. The Conservatives might gain votes saying what many Canadians believe on this subject.
Angelo Persichilli is political editor of Corriere Canadese, Toronto's Italian language daily newspaper.
Persichilli@corriere.com
The Hill Times
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