Iran promises retaliation if Israel attacks

[GePap]

God you can be pathetic.

[Fake Boris]

GePap, despite his... strange ways (personally I just find it funny), he's probably right that the naval problem in the Persian Gulf would be solved relatively quickly. A bit of **** maybe for some time but no major blocus that's for sure.

[Zylka]

Uh oh, more "evidence" from Geppy!

apparently he wasn't just firing off inane, shortsighted garbage to aid his stricken underdogs. those straits of Hormuz will simply froth with yankee blood :doevidencenow:

[GePap]

qwhy is a "mayor blockade needed"? All that is needed is to make the continued supply of oil from Saudi Arabia and so forth a problematic issue, and given the geographic reality, a few succesful attacks by even very low tech craft would create massive economic problems.

And the point of all of that is to add to the reasons why the US would NOT attack Iran if Iran attacked Israel becuase Israel attacked it, which is the point that begun this.

The other point seeming to be that the US could end the Iranian nuclear program without invading-another highly dubious claim given the size and geography of Iran.

[Fake Boris]

Originally posted by GePap
qwhy is a "mayor blockade needed"?

How much time would it take to pinpoint and sink 4 submarines? That would be the duration of the problem. IMO not very long.

[Fake Boris]

Originally posted by GePap
The other point seeming to be that the US could end the Iranian nuclear program without invading-another highly dubious claim given the size and geography of Iran.

If they can get the right intelligence, I'm sure they can. Nuclear facilities are near-impossible to hide from spy aircraft - unless Iran gets a serious partner and imports the stuff like plutonium.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


If they can get the right intelligence, I'm sure they can. Nuclear facilities are near-impossible to hide from spy aircraft - unless Iran gets a serious partner and imports the stuff like plutonium.

Right....just look at our experience with Pakistan and India testing nukes without us having a clue..and the whole NK weapons program...and our claims about Iraq, AND Iran.

[DinoDoc]

We were right about Iran.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


How much time would it take to pinpoint and sink 4 submarines? That would be the duration of the problem. IMO not very long.

Who cares about your opinion, honestly?

And the subs are just icing-a couple of guys in a little boat can cokme up to a tanker and blow themselves up. Not very high tech.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
We were right about Iran.

We had no clue how far they had gone from our intelliegence. We still probalby don't.

[Kirnwaffen]

The diesel subs, while they would not be a viable long term threat, could very easily inflict relatively severe casualties on the USN in the short term. Modern diesel subs do run more quietly than most, if not all, nuclear subs, and, operating in a pack, could probably be quite successful at taking out a carrier or two. The problem would be when they needed to get air, which would make them visible to some extent. The question is really how long they could hide.

I'm relatively surprised at the good perception of US intelligence and war capabilities posted in this thread. I would have thought that the Iraq fiasco had exposed the weaknesses of both to everyone by now.

The real problem for the US would be when OPEC cut off oil supplies. At that point, with Iraqi oil infrastructure in the state that it is currently in, the US would be utterly screwed, which is why we would never be so stupid as to support Israel in a preemptive strike against Iran, or defend it when Iran struck back.

[Fake Boris]

Originally posted by GePap
Who cares about your opinion, honestly?

So how long would it take for the US navy to sink four submarines? Answer the question. I don't know the exact answer, but I doubt it would be long.

And the subs are just icing-a couple of guys in a little boat can cokme up to a tanker and blow themselves up. Not very high tech.

My turn to

There are things such as escorts, navigation permits, mines, air surveillance, etc. Trust me, if the oil needs to get through, it will.

Right....just look at our experience with Pakistan and India testing nukes without us having a clue..and the whole NK weapons program...and our claims about Iraq, AND Iran.

That's why I said "unless Iran has some allies". Getting all the stuff for a nuclear bomb BY YOURSELF is absolutely impossible to hide.

As for India and Pakistan, I know Americans keep banging on these... well I don't know how they did it exactly, and can we really be sure that America had no idea at all that it would happen? For sure they knew there was something nuclear underway. The bomb might have been a surprise, but you need to prove that America didn't even know that Pakistan and India had some sort of nuclear stuff.


What I know however is that I read a book by the president of the IRSN (a French institute specialized in nuclear research) that said that Saddam would not have been able to hide nuclear research unless given some serious help (i.e. receive stuff instead of making it himself).

[GePap]

Originally posted by Oncle Boris


So how long would it take for the US navy to sink four submarines? Answer the question. I don't know the exact answer, but I doubt it would be long.

There is no answer to such a question-it could be immidtaely, cause they are all caught in port, or it could be weeks. What is difficult to fathom is that you think there is a canned answer to such a question.

There are things such as escorts, navigation permits, mines, air surveillance, etc. Trust me, if the oil needs to get through, it will.

Trust yopu? Base on what?

That's why I said "unless Iran has some allies". Getting all the stuff for a nuclear bomb BY YOURSELF is absolutely impossible to hide.

Yup, just ask NK. Or study the run-up to Israel getting nukes...

[Fake Boris]

Originally posted by GePap
There is no answer to such a question-it could be immidtaely, cause they are all caught in port, or it could be weeks. What is difficult to fathom is that you think there is a canned answer to such a question.

The point is that they would be detected as soon as they went into action. It's easy: you shoot, you reveal your position. You don't shoot, you're not disrupting anyone.

Besides, I'm sure military commanders have a relatively precise answer to that.

Trust yopu? Base on what?

Such as in 'phrasal expression' or whatever you call them. So tell me, you think that the US Navy would not be able to effectively protect convoys? What world do you live in? You think that a bunch of dudes in suicide ships would get around satellite detection, radars, missiles.

The answer is simple really. America organizes convoys for oil ships. Then declares the area a no-sail zone. Any unidentified object that enters their screen is destroyed. And if the submarines come close, well, you may lose a ship or two but overall the battle will be over really soon.

Yup, just ask NK. Or study the run-up to Israel getting nukes...

NK was an obvious case. I had a talk with a political science teacher just two years ago and he told me that NK was known to be very close to have nuclear weapons. So if he knew it, do you think American intelligence didn't? Hopefully their incompetence does not extend that far.
As for Israel, they got it from France, which pretty much demonstrates that you've not understood my point: "UNLESS SOMEONE GIVES IT TO YOU". I don't like caps but that's the third time I'm repeating it now, I'm losing patience.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Cruddy

Uh huh. Worked well other times, didn't it? Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia...

Air power without ground troops just pi55es off your opponent.

To be fair the U.S.A.F. virutally destroyed the NVA forces attacking South Vietnam in 1972, but of course it was the presence of those ARVN troops that forced the NVA to concentrate into perfect B-52 targets.

Sometimes air power alone does a good deal more than pi$$ off your opponent, and sometimes less. But usually more. What it doesn't tend to be is decisive without ground troops, except of course when strategic nuclear weapons are involved.