Election 2004 "wargaming"

[Ramo]

The biggies are Ohio, West Viginia, Arizona, Florida, and New Hampshire. Missouri and Tennessee are longshots IMO.

[monkspider]

Thanks Ramo.

[Ben Kenobi]

Nah.

Bush in a landslide.

You heard it here first.

[Boris Godunov]

Definition of a landslide is more than a 10 percentage point difference. That ain't happening, no way. Whoever wins will win by, at the most, 4-5 percentage points.

[Ramo]

Incidentally, Kerry's would win New Hampshire with a landslide according to the recent polls.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

And np monkspider.

[Q Classic]

if this two party has create moderate policies, it has done so without thought, without planning, and without any sort of desire to help the citizenry. any moderate plans are accidents, and everything else is an abomination.

[mrmitchell]

QQQ: What would you rather have then?

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by David Floyd
Guynemer,

I don't see how Bush can lose in Colorado, and I really don't think that Bush will win in New Mexico. Pennsylvania is a possibility - but wouldn't trade be a big issue in that state?

That's pretty much exactly what I said--highly unlikely for Kerry to win Colorado, with New Mexico and Pennsylvania being more-or-less toss-ups, but leaning toward the Dems.

-----------------------------------------

If I had to make a prediction now, Kerry wins the popular vote by 2-3%, holds onto all the '00 Blue states, picks up NH and WV--which I just now realized would give us exactly the same situation: 269-269.

Yikes.

Again, ultimately, not very likely when considering all possible combinations; however, I really think that this is the most likely specific state-by-state breakdown.

This is... troubling.

[Kuciwalker]

How could anyone claim he was "illegitimate"? So we should just ignore the Constitution when you don't like it?

(Wait a second... people still claim the Supreme Court decision in 2000 was "illegitimate"... never mind)

[Guynemer]

I don't think reasonable people would claim he would be illegitimate... they may use that word, but not mean exactly the definition.

It would be perfectly legitimate and Constitutional; however, and I think most people would agree with this, it would be highly "immoral," for lack of a better word.

[DinoDoc]

How so?

[monkspider]

Well put Guy.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Guynemer
I don't think reasonable people would claim he would be illegitimate... they may use that word, but not mean exactly the definition.

It would be perfectly legitimate and Constitutional; however, and I think most people would agree with this, it would be highly "immoral," for lack of a better word.

So he should just drop out if he doesn't get the popular vote?

Can he do that? If he and Cheney both resigned, the Speaker of the House would become president-elect, wouldn't he?

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
How so?

It just strikes me as wrong that a vote by a partisan Congress would determine who became President, when the voting public has already made clear who won the popular vote.

I know it is Constitutional, and legal. But it would leave a dirty taste in my mouth.

[Guynemer]

Originally posted by skywalker


So he should just drop out if he doesn't get the popular vote?

Can he do that? If he and Cheney both resigned, the Speaker of the House would become president-elect, wouldn't he?

You're absolutely right.

That is exactly why this scenario bothers me so much.


DD--admit it. This scenario is at least somewhat likely, is it not? It shouldn't take a great leap of imagination to envision the EC shaking out in the way I describe.

Your candidate would end up winning, yes, by totally legal means. But wouldn't it make you feel a little... I really don't know what word I'm looking for, but I know you're more than smart enough to know what I'm driving at.