Depends what you mean by split, really. There's now a Scottish Parliament and a Welsh Assembly, so you could argue that the UK has "split".
If you mean "countries most likely to undergo brutal civil war" then my list is;
1. All African states with the exceptions of Morroco, Libya and Egypt
2. Saudi Arabia.
3. Russia (ongoing, really).
4. Pakistan (ditto).
5. Belgium (wild card entry).
If you mean "countries most likely to undergo brutal civil war" then my list is;
1. All African states with the exceptions of Morroco, Libya and Egypt
2. Saudi Arabia.
3. Russia (ongoing, really).
4. Pakistan (ditto).
5. Belgium (wild card entry).
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