The Academy has a habit of posthumously awarding though. Everyone is saying that LotR is due, its commercially and critically successful AND is the underdog in many ways. The stars are aligned for a big oscar night for LotR, at least thats what the people at oscarwatch.com forums are saying, and they aren't exactly fanboys.
Generally speaking there is only one epic that even gets nominated for best picture. There are two strong epic nominations this year... Cold Mountain and RotK. There just isn't space for a third.
Master and Commander has zero shot at best picture, and only an outside chance at a nomination.
The nominated films will be...
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Cold Mountain
Seabiscuit
Lost in Translation
Mystic River
Right now, the BP race is still up in the air to some degree, where the actual reception of Cold Mountain still has to be seen. If it does amazingly well, then it should get the statue, but if the rumors are true and it has bad chemistry for the leads (not withstanding some of the worst southern accents *grins*,) then RotK is a lock.
Oddly CM has a rotten rating right now at rottentomatoes.com, with 59%. The cream of the crop reviews are at 100%... but those are more tepid positives than anything... Richard Roeper said "a good movie not a great one". There haven't been any major "best movie of the year" quotes from critics, so far.
Generally speaking there is only one epic that even gets nominated for best picture. There are two strong epic nominations this year... Cold Mountain and RotK. There just isn't space for a third.
Master and Commander has zero shot at best picture, and only an outside chance at a nomination.
The nominated films will be...
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Cold Mountain
Seabiscuit
Lost in Translation
Mystic River
Right now, the BP race is still up in the air to some degree, where the actual reception of Cold Mountain still has to be seen. If it does amazingly well, then it should get the statue, but if the rumors are true and it has bad chemistry for the leads (not withstanding some of the worst southern accents *grins*,) then RotK is a lock.
Oddly CM has a rotten rating right now at rottentomatoes.com, with 59%. The cream of the crop reviews are at 100%... but those are more tepid positives than anything... Richard Roeper said "a good movie not a great one". There haven't been any major "best movie of the year" quotes from critics, so far.
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