You want odds?
The first (Prince Charles) is very likely, but may be difficult to get proof. Odds that it's proven: evens. Odds that some newspaper runs a story on it: 1/5 against (It will happen).
The second is pretty doubtful. I'll give you of 20/1, being that it has to be an accident, as said.
Considering bookies take bets of 40/1 on their being a white christmas, you're not going to get decent odds at all on that. Depends on your definition of a white christmas too. If you want to bet, it will likely be 1/40 against type odds.
The first (Prince Charles) is very likely, but may be difficult to get proof. Odds that it's proven: evens. Odds that some newspaper runs a story on it: 1/5 against (It will happen).
The second is pretty doubtful. I'll give you of 20/1, being that it has to be an accident, as said.
Considering bookies take bets of 40/1 on their being a white christmas, you're not going to get decent odds at all on that. Depends on your definition of a white christmas too. If you want to bet, it will likely be 1/40 against type odds.
Hmmm... like you constant "I do this better than you" about things of which you have no knowledge of the other persons ability has nothing to do with the size of your ego? Boastful jokes are one thing, but done that often, and so many times seeming trying to make yourself feel better and others worse
Nonetheless, you have yet to provide me with an example of me "trying to make others feel worse", indeed I would be unpleasantly shocked if you do not realise the extent to which that is against my nature. I remember our old altruism debates. If my confidence plays in your insecurities, then all you have to do is tell me so and I will adjust that demeanor accordingly when in your company.
Understand this however, in my life thus far, and for the forseeable future, I have needed and will continue to need a degree of external, self-imposed and even inherent confidence, foolhardiness and bloody-mindedness, not to mention an objective sense of self honesty. I am a good debater, a good critical analyst, a good scientist, a good thinker, a good writer, a good communicator, have an effective theory of mind and a competant masseure. In some of those fields, I feel honestly within myself that I am better than good, I'm not going to cloud my own judgement with a vineer of politically correct humility where unnecessary. I can paraphrase much you have said that shows that we share that trait. "I am better read, more cultured and more intelligent than most people" (in a conversation a while back about vicky on msn), and not to mention dozens of allusions to your undoubtable capabilities in your specialist field of economics... to which you have received nothing but encouragement and agreement from me.
In a choice between confidence, even the over-bearing nature that you seem to imply (that I question), and a state of insecurity, failure to function in my talents and a passive personality, then I will not hesitate in choosing the former, nor should anyone that wishes to blaze a proverbial trail.
Back to the thread.
I believe that we all have, to some extent, the ability to predict the future, in the sense that our brains seem to have the ability to evaluate probabilities, create for us self-fullfilling prophecies, and give us that famed "gut instinct". That does not of course preclude the low odds of a given event occuring, but perhaps our gut instinct gives us a greater ability than conscious would allow to evaluate those odds... that fabled "sixth sense" that most of us at some time feel we have.
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