Abu Mazen Resigned

[The diplomat]

Arafat has apparently tapped parliament speaker Ahmed Qureia as new PM. The Fatah leadership has already confirmed the nomination.

[Ramo]

Looks like peace will be set back at least several years (due to the inevitable Israeli invasion). What worries me is that every year longer the occupation lasts, the more the occupied territories will be dominated by Palestinians who have no memory of living side by side with Israelis; the only interaction the youngest generations have had with Israelis, have been with occupying soldiers and settlers, which makes a lasting peace that much harder to acheive.

[Panag]

Abbas Exit Turns Page to Fresh Palestinian Violence
************************************************** *

DEBKAfile Special Analysis


It took Yasser Arafat 100 days to knock over the linchpin of the
Aqaba peace strategy plotted by US President George W. Bush and
Israeli premier Ariel Sharon at the Jordanian Red Sea resort; Abu
Mazen aka Mahmoud Abbas submitted his resignation as Palestinian
prime minister on Saturday, September 6, for lack of any other option.

Arafat's blow was a double-headed one, striking at two key sections
of the Bush administration's master-plan: the Palestinian-Israeli
conflict and Iraq.

The statistics of the ill-fated Abu Mazen experiment are horrendous -
in 88 days from the June 6 Aqaba summit up until Saturday September
6, 64 Israelis were murdered by Palestinian terrorists and more than
1,000 wounded, i.e. 0.7 dead and more than 10 injured victims per
day. It is hard to imagine any government continuing to base its
policies - especially one that declares the security of its citizens
paramount - on the regular slaughter of its citizens day after day by
a declared enemy. This state of affairs is not a matter of political
viewpoint. Placing the home front in harm's way makes the battle
front more vulnerable. When the enemy is permitted to strike at will
at civilian towns and villages, it means the front line is wide open
and national defenses are in tatters.

This lesson the Americans first understood on September 11.

In Iraq, the statistics begin on May 1, when President Bush declared
the combat phase of the Iraq War at an end. Since then, 65 Americans
have died in enemy attacks, i.e. 0.6 per day in 118 days.

The Americans now admit that the anti-US resistance in Iraq is not
confined to Saddam loyalists, but is an orchestrated Arab-Muslim
guerrilla campaign sustained by a stream of foreign fighters mostly
from Syria and Iran and including a heavy influx of al Qaeda
terrorists.

Israel knows that the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure controlled
by Yasser Arafat is fed by the same sources; most of the ammunition,
explosives, trainers for suicide and mega-terror techniques, comes
from Iran, largely through Lebanon, from al Qaeda and from Syria. But
because the Bush government has chosen to leave these sources of the
Arab-Islamic campaign waged against US troops unscathed, so too have
Ariel Sharon and his government refrained from destroying the
Palestinian infrastructure nurtured by that same Arab-Muslim Trio.

It is no secret that Israel's campaign of targeted assassinations and
preventive operations against the Hamas barely scratched the surface
of the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure. This restraint was
explained by the need to bolster Abu Mazen's standing and hopes that
he and his internal security minister Mohamed Dahlan would finally do
the job.

In fact, Israel's selective counter-terror tactics actually weakened
the former Palestinian prime minister. The Hamas was not his enemy,
but Arafat, while the most massive terrorist infrastructure was not
the one built by Hamas but the one based on his Tanzim, Fatah and al
Aqsa Martyrs (Suicides) Brigades. Israeli forces concentrated on
hitting the Hamas and scarcely touched Arafat's forces, allowing them
to gain strength. When Palestinian politicians saw Arafat getting
away with his buildup and with pulling support away from Abbas, they
deserted the prime minister in droves leaving him with no choice but
to quit.

Abu Mazen's downfall is not his alone; neither is it a passing
episode. His debacle spells the crash of any foreseeable prospects of
Palestinian-Israeli progress towards a peaceful settlement. His
removal leaves Bush and Sharon face to face with Arafat and the
violent offensive he is preparing to loose. Gone is the artificial
buffer presented by the flimsy Au Mazan-Dahlan administration. Since
Israel forces were restrained from striking at the foundations of
Arafat's military strength, the next Palestinian-Israeli war is
likely to be more violent and bloody than the previous rounds.

This prospect is bound closely to events in Iraq and the global war
on terror.

Until mid-August, the watchword of Islamic jihadist radicals was
"Palestine Tumadikun!" - We march on Palestine! - there to prevail
over the Israelis and the Americans. Since then, a new slogan has
taken over: "Iraq Tumadikun! - We march on Iraq! - there to prevail
over the Americans and the Israelis.

The combination of emblems on the cover of a new booklet published by
al Qaeda says it all: the Sword of Islam cutting through a US-Israeli
flag montage with a American military truck in flames below the text.

As DEBKAfile wrote some days ago, the final Islamic-US battle lines
run through "Palestine" to Iraq. This has always been the political,
national, strategic, tactical and terrorist doctrine guiding Arafat's
every step; it was naïve to imagine he would be thrown off course by
a lightweight bureaucrat like Abu Mazen.

The right-wing ministers of the Sharon government are now speaking up
loudly in favor of expelling Arafat. They are too late. With Abbas
gone, he can finally make his dream come true of standing on the same
pedestal as Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. Capturing Arafat,
killing him or sending him into exile will not undo his handiwork. He
has used the phony ceasefire attained by the departed Palestinian
prime minister to manufacture a terrorist machine on a national scale
that is closely linked to Tehran, Damascus, Beirut and al Qaeda and
has its own built-in mechanism for automatic operation, with or
without his pushing buttons.

The Economic Aspect

Ten years after the 1993 Oslo Framework Accords were signed by
Israeli and the Palestinians, the theory at the bottom of their
conception is still current, that the Palestinians can be weaned away
from terrorism by investments that improve their standard of living
and provide them with decent medical and education services. This
might have worked had the vast sums of international aid funds - $16
bn in a decade - been spent on these laudable goals. In actual fact,
the money was sunk into fabricating the mightiest terror machine
every seen and the lining of its masters' pockets. Yasser Arafat's
great national enterprise since 1983 has been to build a terrorist
empire on the West Bank that outstrips the terrorist kingdom ruling
the Gaza Strip.

from debka , ......

have a nice day

[Sirotnikov]

Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were all "decapitated", humiliated, forced to surrender, appointed a non-democratic western ruler, and brain-washed against their former policies.

Yes, and the Allies established an apartheid regime with settlements.

Nowhere did I claim that it settlements were part of the "denazification" process. I thought you were serious about the discussion and treated it as such. If you wish to return to "point scoring" I can do that.

Btw, most attempts at denazification lead to the Persilschein-mentality. The real dealing with the past came in the 60s and 70s. In Germany, the 2nd tier of the Weimar political elite, like Adenauer, was still around. A working civil administration was available. It's ahistorical bollocks to compare Germany and Palestine 1:1 (or Iraq).

I never said I compare it 1:1. But I think it's comparable enough.

I'm not familiar enough with the meaning of Persilschein, nor with what you are suggesting, that the denazification policy brought no gains.

I sincerely doubt that had Allied troops left Japan to be run by their previous militant leaders, and Germany to be run by their previous militant leaders, they would not have been as pacifistic, orderly and democratic as we know them.

Thus I see no reason for the leadership of the PLO (set up in 1964 to remind you) to govern Palestine.

I think Israel made a grave error in accepting their return. It would have been better to wait 10 more years, and start dealing afresh, with a new local leadership, which did not have a history of terror.

Why don't you come along to our intelligence HQ and we'll show you the data.

IOW, you have no evidence.

IOW?

I'm saying that the evidence was available in the miltiary and foreign affairs websites. I can't find it now, but I've read it there, in english.

Btw, if you ARE interested, copies of the said documents proving Arafat signing on orders to pay known Al-Aqsa terrorists

Different thing. On that standard, Israel funds Al Aqsa, too.

Yes I know that some of the money Israel has unfroze and trasferred to the PA is very likely to reach terrorists. That's why Israel has froze the money in the first place.

However, out of hope that Abbas would have taken charge and put the money into police forces instead, and under severe American pressure, we unfroze it.

But that's the whole point - Arafat has NEVER listened to the Europeans. He has never done anything anybody asked him to, unless the US was seriously twisting his arm.

The US? What has it done?
Arafat is a *****, and everyone has little influence on what he does. As far as I'm concerned, we should get out of all that crap. Israel and PA.

The US uses it's leverage on Israel. So far the US has on several occassions stopped or prevented Israeli incursions, and until recently has been blocking the option to remove Arafat.

The "political wing" provides funding, organization, and religious justification to the actions of the "militant wing".

I agree that distinguishing doesn't make much sense, unless you think you can negotiate with hamas.

I completely agree.

I also find the notion some european countries had that you can negotiate with Hamas ridiculous. They have been applying conclusions made in N. Ireland, improperly. The people there want limited goals - autonomy / independance.

Hamas wants to eventually eradicate Israel completely. To think that if we gratify them the 67 borders they will weaken and decide to stop, is wrong.

[Sirotnikov]

And the palestinains still view him as their egitimately chosen leader, which is the point.

Strike the words legitimately chosen, and keep only the word leader, and I would agree.

The annalogy is utterly incorrect. The Palestianins have never had a state of their own to be conquered, and what is currently going on is not a huge war.

The PLO and now the PA is a ruling autonomic mechanism, with a military force, that has used political terror, propoganda, and military force against national political rivals such as Israel, Jordan and Lebanon.

It is in a sense, a "government".

Both the German and Japanese people accepted the legitimacy of the occupying powers, given that they had lost a war and been invaded (after they invaded others). No Palestinian sees the Israeli occupation as in any imaginable way legitimate.

I'm perfectly sure that no german or japanese saw the occupation as really legitimate. They accepted it as a reality forced on them.

The problem with the Palestinians, that mid-eastern and especially Islamic culture does not accept the notion of limited constrained conflicts. A conflict is absolute, and is decided by absolute eradication of either side.

If you check to see arab literature and culture, in the eyes of most, it's more or less a continuation of the same struggle starting in the crusades.

Plus, the palestiians don;t need to be brainwashed to gain anti-Israeli feelings. Their eery day lives are more than enough of a rude education in that.

That is a straw man.

The fact that they can gain anti-Israeli feelings from actual experiences do not diminish my claim, that anti-Israeli propoganda creates a much harsher response, and is used to tunnel the feelings of hate in agressive militant measures.

I have always thought that the west seriously under appriciates the effects and effectiveness of propoganda to the masses.

Studies done by Israeli-Palestinian joint researches about the image of Israelis in the eyes of Palestinian youth and children, found conclusively that the more Palestinians had contact with Israelis, the better they would see them.

The Palestinians who had rarely been in actual contact with plain israelis, settlers or soldiers, all had much harsher and more demonic views of Israelis.

I've read an article about the Balcan wars depicting the huge amounts of propoganda on both sides, which prior to the war, in half a decade, increased popular hatred and made the populations very eager to wage war.

Looks like peace will be set back at least several years (due to the inevitable Israeli invasion). What worries me is that every year longer the occupation lasts, the more the occupied territories will be dominated by Palestinians who have no memory of living side by side with Israelis; the only interaction the youngest generations have had with Israelis, have been with occupying soldiers and settlers, which makes a lasting peace that much harder to acheive.

There is no palestinian memory of living side by side with Israel in a normal way.

There has always been conflict. With the pals getting the upper hand before 47, and Israel getting the upper hand after 47.

[Sirotnikov]

It hasn't worked for 30 years before Oslo, what on earth makes you think it will work now?

Oh but it has.

Since the palestinian media and school rooms and mosques were left to PA administration, the level of propoganda increased.

At the same time, while Israel began leaving the territories, hatered towards it only increased, due to the channeling of all public discontent into agression towards Israel.

At some point someone here will ahe to realize there are 3 million Palestinians who's opinions actually matter, and that they will oly accept (just like Israelis will only accept) a peace plan they see having been arrive legitimately by individuals they entrsted with the power to make choices for them. Few Pals. saw Aby Mazen as that man, speically since he was unable to get any significant thing done vis a vi Israel.

Many palestinians don't see Arafat as their legitimate leader. But they see him as the one they've got and the one they deal with.

This is not a society in which leadership is based on legitimacy or democracy, but on power. Political, family, military and so on.

Instead of that prisoner release, or even instead of easing moving restrictions the Israelis could have (with no security implications for themselves) removed all outposts, populated or otherwise, set up since sept. 2000.

The prisoner release was a gesture not required by the Roadmap, made purely out of Israeli good will, at the demand of Abu Mazen, to appease the terrorist organizations into cooperating.

And for a while we began removing outposts. But after that while, it was clear that the Pals just sat there and watched, making no steps of their own. So we quit.

That would have given Mazen a huge boost: but of course would have meant real political heat for Sharon, so only a half step was taken and soon abandoned.

Again, this is largly a result of the fact that following several outposts removed, Israel expected to see some, even symbolic action on the Pal side. Nothing happenned.

As you know, nothing happenned until AFTER the suicide bombing in Jerusalem, when the Pals decided to make some show, to appease public opinion, and sealed of one, of the dozens of tunnels used for weapons smuggling, and supposedly froze Hamas assests.

[Ned]

Israel should arrest/kill everyone associated with terror, starting with Arafat. They should all be expelled, never to return under penalty of death.

Thereafter, Israel should conduct elections in Palestine for a new government. No one who should be permitted to be in the new government who is even a relative of anyone who is/was in a terror group. As well, no one should be permitted to run for office who ever supported the destruction of Israel or who applauded in any way the terrorist actions against Israel.

Clean house, Israel. It seems to be the only solution.

[HershOstropoler]

Siro:

I thought you were serious about the discussion and treated it as such. If you wish to return to "point scoring" I can do that.

You were serious about the comparison?

I sincerely doubt that had Allied troops left Japan to be run by their previous militant leaders, and Germany to be run by their previous militant leaders,

That's another cliché. The leaders of the Weimar Republic were barely militant, and the "prussian militarists" were mostly apolitical - their big role in the Nazi party was an allied myth. There was a strong pacifist movement after WWII anyway - I just have to remind you of the german rearmament debate in the 50s.

I'm saying that the evidence was available in the miltiary and foreign affairs websites. I can't find it now, but I've read it there, in english.

Ok, so where did it go?

However, out of hope that Abbas would have taken charge and put the money into police forces instead, and under severe American pressure, we unfroze it.

And our view is that destroying the PA will get you nowhere. The general funding went to the PA finance minister (Fayad?), who has been the darling of the Bush admin.

The US uses it's leverage on Israel. So far the US has on several occassions stopped or prevented Israeli incursions, and until recently has been blocking the option to remove Arafat.

Yes, so the only influence the US has on Arafat is threatening to unleash Sharon, and it's unsure that has much influence on Arafat either.

I also find the notion some european countries had that you can negotiate with Hamas ridiculous. They have been applying conclusions made in N. Ireland, improperly. The people there want limited goals - autonomy / independance.

That's the question whether Hamas can settle for less.

Hamas wants to eventually eradicate Israel completely. To think that if we gratify them the 67 borders they will weaken and decide to stop, is wrong.

In that case, Hamas has the options of becoming Sinn Fein or the RAF. Why do you think they would have much support after a peace deal?

[Agathon]

Originally posted by Ned
Israel should arrest/kill everyone associated with terror, starting with Arafat. They should all be expelled, never to return under penalty of death.

Thereafter, Israel should conduct elections in Palestine for a new government. No one who should be permitted to be in the new government who is even a relative of anyone who is/was in a terror group. As well, no one should be permitted to run for office who ever supported the destruction of Israel or who applauded in any way the terrorist actions against Israel.

Clean house, Israel. It seems to be the only solution.

Rubbish. Israel must be destroyed.

They are the squatters on the block that no one else in the neighbourhood likes.

If Israel goes - hey most problems solved.

[Ramo]

There is no palestinian memory of living side by side with Israel in a normal way.

There has always been conflict. With the pals getting the upper hand before 47, and Israel getting the upper hand after 47.

Not with Israel, but with Israelis (specifically, Jewish Israelis). Even though there had always been conflict, they didn't see only the agressive aspect of the Jewish community (soldiers and settlers). Just look at how much more radical the younger generations of Palestinians in the occupied territories are than the older generations.

[Panag]

Originally posted by Agathon


Rubbish. Israel must be destroyed.

They are the squatters on the block that no one else in the neighbourhood likes.

If Israel goes - hey most problems solved.

if we go , so do our enemies , ........

[VetLegion]

Sirotnikov is right about propaganda. Does miracles. Serbs and Croats lived together in peace for a long time but propaganda machinery did an awsome job of antagonizing us prior to the outbreak of war. The leaders we elected didn't help either, but it is a viscious circle, them and media.

[Panag]

Originally posted by VetLegion
Sirotnikov is right about propaganda. Does miracles. Serbs and Croats lived together in peace for a long time but propaganda machinery did an awsome job of antagonizing us prior to the outbreak of war. The leaders we elected didn't help either, but it is a viscious circle, them and media.

hi ,

and there is nothing more sick then prop generated by people who know zip about what goes from 10 000 miles away , .....

and the best examples in our region are the EU and to some extend russia , .......

if they would stop to interfere in the region we might get a bright future , ......

have a nice day

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Nuclear Master
I have the answer to everything. Arnold needs to run for Prime Minister of Palestine!

That would work. As an Austrian (and friend of Kurt Waldheim) he knows lots about killing Jews.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Sirotnikov
But the euro's are slow to realize they have had no effect, and will never will.

Kinda like the US and Isreal, huh? We give you all kinds of money and you spy on us and ignore us.