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George Bush, the Tax cuts and the collapse of American Power

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  • #61
    Originally posted by DanS
    Well, even if we couldn't take on ROW (which we could IMO), then that just proves my point all the more.

    If you want to paint the US as a unipole, then you've got to recognize that the US doesn't have the capability to perpetuate this situation and has never really had this capability. So why care too much about it? If you want to paint the US as a superpower, then we can perpetuate this situation forever, basically.

    What Bush does now will have almost zero impact on these facts, unless he gets us nuked. Wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, and Iran during his presidency won't change the parameters. Continued large deficits (which aren't planned, currently) during his presidency won't change the parameters.
    Can't claim to understand that post. But economic growth is closely related to net investment. Military spending is mostly consumption. 50-100 billion $ for Iraq is not domestic investment either. Add to that a savings rate that only covers depreciation.

    There are other factors, like the growing authoritarianism, corruption and superstition.
    “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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    • #62
      50-100 billion $ for Iraq is not domestic investment either. Add to that a savings rate that only covers depreciation.
      The point is that $100 billion for Iraq, while a lot of money, will not make a difference on the timescale that about which ef is talking. Even several hundreds of billions of dollars a year for various adventures during Bush's presidency won't make much of a difference. If ef wants to set the bar so high for American power that the US has never been able to meet the conditions anyway, then this discussion is rather pointless.

      There are other factors, like the growing authoritarianism, corruption and superstition.
      I don't think you can have a good enough sense of the US to know whether it is "growing" or not. Probably, I don't either, but my sense is directly opposite of yours. The US has never been shangri-la, after all.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • #63
        You guys seem to talk a lot about possible scenarios, but in reality, US does play the role of the unipole. It might not be able to sustain such a position in face of unified and determined opposition, but no such opposition is present now, or is likely to be present in the near future.
        To get back to the original point about tax cuts, the problem with them is that Bush is taking an essentially domestic issue that he needs to be elected and pursues the cut that undermine US ability to sustain viable domestic programs. The problem is - decreased military spending means US will stop playing the role of the unipole - and no country will give in to that willingly. Therefore it will domestic programs that take the cut. Too bad, but there doesn't seem to be a way out of this.
        Napoleon I

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        • #64
          The problem is - decreased military spending means US will stop playing the role of the unipole - and no country will give in to that willingly.
          Why so? Basically, you just admitted that it was out of our hands whether or not we continue on our lofty perch (which I agree with, btw).
          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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          • #65
            "The point is that $100 billion for Iraq, while a lot of money, will not make a difference on the timescale that about which ef is talking. Even several hundreds of billions of dollars a year for various adventures during Bush's presidency won't make much of a difference."

            Well it adds up. Also, why are you limiting this to Bush? I see him just as a symptom.

            "I don't think you can have a good enough sense of the US to know whether it is "growing" or not."

            You think police and prosecution powers are not growing, the control of money over politics is not growing, and nationalism and religious fundamentalism are not growing?

            "Probably, I don't either, but my sense is directly opposite of yours."

            You've always lived in a reality alternate to mine.
            “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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            • #66
              Also, why are you limiting this to Bush? I see him just as a symptom.
              Just following ef's scenario. He quoted a structural balance in 2000 and all of the ills that followed.

              You think police and prosecution powers are not growing, the control of money over politics is not growing, and nationalism and religious fundamentalism are not growing?
              No, no, no, and no [edit: I guess that should be yes, yes, yes, and yes. ]. Easy answers, at least on a more long-term basis.

              The police are better and cleaner now than they have ever been. The FBI in Hoover's time was rather abusive of its power. Money has always been a part of American politics and now no more than then. I can think of times infinitely worse in our recent history (trusts). Nationalism is on the decrease. The first Gulf War was an order of magnitude more shameful than the second. Religious fundamentalism is very much on the decrease. I come from an area that was very fundamentalist, so I know. I can give you specific examples, if you are interested.

              You're out of touch with the US, Roland. You always have been.
              Last edited by DanS; August 31, 2003, 04:50.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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              • #67
                Well, I wouldn't exactly say that it is out of our hands. The problem is that 2000 brought to power a President who needed to maintain conservative domestic policies to woo his electoral base. Had the power switched (or should it switch in 2004) to a President who will reverse the tax policy, domestic programs might yet be saved.
                Napoleon I

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                • #68
                  You think police and prosecution powers are not growing, the control of money over politics is not growing, and nationalism and religious fundamentalism are not growing?
                  Actually, all these things have probably been there all along. Now they are just becoming more open, in tune with an increasingly conservative mood of the country.
                  Napoleon I

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                  • #69
                    "No, no, no, and no. Easy answers, at least on a more long-term basis."

                    So it will all be well in the future. Sure.

                    What interests me though: "Nationalism is on the decrease." How do you come to that conclusion?
                    “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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                    • #70
                      What interests me though: "Nationalism is on the decrease." How do you come to that conclusion?
                      There was no "Proud to be an American" song for Gulf War II.

                      So it will all be well in the future. Sure.
                      No. More like "it was twice as bad 20 years ago".
                      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                      Comment

                      • #71
                        "There was no "Proud to be an American" song for Gulf War II.2"

                        There was no FOX "news" 20 years ago.
                        “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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                        • #72
                          That's not a very good indicator. If you were here, you would know that.

                          Dissent was tolerated by the majority this time. That is more often not the case over our history. It wasn't that way in GW I.

                          Seriously, you must have an idealized view of the US in the past to think that any of this is on the increase.
                          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                          • #73
                            A rabidly jingoistic program being successful is a weaker indicator than one song?
                            “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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                            • #74
                              Hey hey hey

                              The only rabid jingoist around here is ME, Herr Rechtsberater.
                              We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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                              • #75
                                A rabidly jingoistic program being successful is a weaker indicator than one song?
                                Sure. Almost all Americans listen to the radio on their way to work and were exposed to the song in GWI. For all of the hype, only a small proportion of Americans watch Fox News.

                                Besides, if you call Faux News rabidly jingoistic, you don't know real jingoism.

                                Europe must have only been exposed to this stuff recently. In the past, it probably wasn't interested. Too many foreign news bureaus in Washington nowadays.
                                Last edited by DanS; August 31, 2003, 05:21.
                                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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