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George Bush, the Tax cuts and the collapse of American Power
It's funny how this has turned into a China vs US thread.
China will probably never want to be a global power like the US - it has too many unfriendly neighbours for that - But the US is struggling even now to occupy two poxy third world countries.
With a fall off in military spending the US will find it even harder to impose it's will.
Face it yanks, you can only run the world on a shoestring when noone feels like challenging you (see my point earlier about the parralells with the UK just over a century ago).
Face it yanks, you can only run the world on a shoestring when noone feels like challenging you (see my point earlier about the parralells with the UK just over a century ago).
How much of the UK's economy was devoted to the military a century ago? Besides, we have no desire to run the world (i.e., fvck it up) like the Brits did.
Well 'collapse' is maybe too strong a word, but I think that US power in 10 years time will be severely curtailed due to short-sighted actions now.
You and Hershell have influenced each other too much.
Anyway, this "soft power" stuff is hogwash. If Europe doesn't pay to keep up, it won't be listened to.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
In the 1880's and 1890's around 1.5% (or 15% of government spending, which is the level the US is currently at).
By 1910 our spending (as a share of GDP) had tripled to 4.5% and yet we had much less of a lead than a generation before.
I doubt very much that the US can avoid this sort of scenario over the next 20-30 years.
The reagan buildup was using borrowed money - much like today - but where is the USSR that's going to collapse and save your (fiscal) bacon this time?
Beijing
"I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003
I doubt very much that the US can avoid this sort of scenario over the next 20-30 years.
Let's face it. It just depends on how others manage their own economic situations. China is growing very quickly, but is not managing its situation well in some important respects, such as its demographics. India might kick it into a higher economic gear, but isn't liberalizing its economy very quickly. Europe may surpass the US economy over the next couple of decades or it may be half of where the US is.
We just don't know where we'll be in 10 years. There are some important clues about where we're all headed. And it's generally favorable to the US. Maybe not "astride the world" favorable, but then would we want it to be that way? That wouldn't bring the most good to the most people worldwide. It wouldn't bring the most good to Americans.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
I find it funny no one has commented on/complained about my assertion that some natural cause will arise that will greatly accelerate the death rate of old people.
“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
I have a standing offer to bet anyone $1 million dollars that India will have a larger economy than China in 50 years.
Any takers this time?
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
That's the present value of $1 million in 50 years (assuming a 4% inflation rate). So, who is supposed to have the larger economy? China or India?
“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
It all depends on the relative productivity growth rates
India's working age population will be 15% bigger than China's by 2050 (it's currently 29% smaller) but india has lower productivity now and has had slower productivity growth over the last 40 years.
I'd say it was definately possible but I wouldn't put the odds of it at better than 3:1
My current long-term forecast is for China to have 90% of the US's GDP by 2050 and India to have 60% (they currently have 55% and 25% respectively)
So, who is supposed to have the larger economy? China or India?
India.
but india has lower productivity now and has had slower productivity growth over the last 40 years
I'm guessing that India's has been respectable over the last 20?
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
Lucky that the US government takes a much smaller bite of the economy than most Western Countrys. The US economy is going to be very hard to damage. Their productivity and investment levels are still extremely high compared to most European nations, and as long as there is appropriate investment in the up-and coming business sectors, they should do fine.
The communications/internet/biotech economies were largely driven by State, particularly Pentagon, funding. Hopefully these can stand on their own two feet now. I predict the next growth industry will be cheap explosives and high-technology firearms to feed your satanic war machine
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