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GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 14

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  • #76
    Originally posted by DanS
    How high are the taxes in Germany? How tight are the regulatory controls? How bad are the labor laws?
    You can't quantify it. Everytime economists try it, they make idiots of themselves. Just an example: Law says "The workweek is 35 hours". This can be a big problem, or totally irrelevant, depending on the legal consequences.

    "Edit: They can't even collect retail deposits? Hmmm... "

    Huh?
    “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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    • #77
      Huh?
      I was surprised when Saras said this...

      Deutshe, iirc, can't even go and collect retail deposits.
      Of course, not all banks do this in the US. But since Glass-Stiegel was lifted, I think there has been no bar to them doing so.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • #78
        Originally posted by DanS


        I was surprised when Saras said this...



        Of course, not all banks do this in the US. But since Glass-Stiegel was lifted, I think there has been no bar to them doing so.
        Well Saras does not remember correctly.

        Fehlerseite 404 Seite nicht gefunden
        http://www.deutsche-bank.de/pbc/index.html
        www.deutsche-bank.de


        DB once wanted to bundle its retail banking business in DB24, maybe that's the source of confusion...
        “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

        Comment

        • #79
          Originally posted by HershOstropoler


          You can't quantify it. Everytime economists try it, they make idiots of themselves. Just an example: Law says "The workweek is 35 hours". This can be a big problem, or totally irrelevant, depending on the legal consequences.
          And depending on the business and on human preferences. Precluding places from working people 100 hours a week would not hurt a company much, since it is rarely efficient workwise and since people will refuse the workload. On the other hand, it is often the case that two people at 20 hours a week are nowhere near as useful as one person at 40. There are economies of scale for learning and the like and they differ depending on the nature of the work.

          Of course we have to try to measure the impact of these things even though it is hard. Journal of Labor Economics has some good papers sometimes. And it's not always the "number" or the specific micro-study but the insights into the business issues (framing the problem.)

          Comment

          • #80
            Originally posted by DanS
            Fed's Poole says long term US econ prospects superb

            reuters.com
            http://reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?storyID=3499986&type=bondsNews

            Anyone want to guess what productivity growth will be when the US economy is expanding again?
            I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
            - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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            • #81
              Expanding again? We've been positive for 2 years.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

              Comment

              • #82
                Originally posted by DanS
                Expanding again? We've been positive for 2 years.
                I don't consider it an expansion period yet.

                edit: When we get there we will know for sure. Most people aren't sure right now.
                I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                Comment

                • #83
                  Originally posted by HershOstropoler


                  Well Saras does not remember correctly.

                  Fehlerseite 404 Seite nicht gefunden
                  http://www.deutsche-bank.de/pbc/index.html
                  www.deutsche-bank.de


                  DB once wanted to bundle its retail banking business in DB24, maybe that's the source of confusion...
                  So what's the deal with mundane Sparkassen dominating retail deposits?
                  Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
                  Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
                  Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

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                  • #84
                    Originally posted by Kidicious


                    I don't consider it an expansion period yet.

                    edit: When we get there we will know for sure. Most people aren't sure right now.
                    So, all it requires is for us to think happy thoughts and we're there?
                    No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.

                    Comment

                    • #85
                      So the Chinese economy grows by 7.5% both this and next year, according to the IMF.

                      Will the world be full of chicoms in 10 years?

                      Comment

                      • #86
                        Isn't the chinese figures questionable? I've heard a few words about that they are manipulation them. Maybe some of the economy-nerds here knows more about that.

                        Comment

                        • #87
                          There are many difficulties in comparing growth rates across economies - as I have said before here

                          I have done several studies comparing constant-price GDP growth rates to current-price GDP converted using Purchasing Power Parities, here are some results:

                          'Correction factor' (i.e. what to add or subtract from the reported growth rate) for selected economies, with US growth rates as a base:

                          United States: 0.0% (obviously )
                          Japan: +0.4%
                          Germany: +0.6%
                          France: +0.1%
                          Britian: +0.4%
                          Italy: +0.5%
                          Canada: +0.4%
                          China: -2.3%
                          India: +0.5%
                          EU15: +0.5%


                          I find it interesting to compare the more-often reported statistics with the 'adjusted' values and also correcting for population growth:

                          'corrected' growth in GDP per head 1993-2003:

                          United States: 2.1%
                          Japan: 1.4%
                          Germany: 1.9%
                          France: 1.8%
                          Britian: 3.0%
                          Italy: 2.1%
                          China: 5.5%
                          India: 4.7%
                          EU15: 2.5%
                          19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

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                          • #88
                            Yeah but aren't the chicoms still going to be everywhere in 10 years? 20 years? 50?

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                            • #89
                              Actually my long term (50 year) forecasts show China's GDP only equalling the US's level in 2050.

                              It will continue it's rapid rise from the current 55% of the US level to around 80% in 2030, then the rise will slow significantly (as the effects of their one-child policy cause the workforce to shrink)
                              19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

                              Comment

                              • #90
                                yeah but they will catch up? danger!!

                                Comment

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