GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 14

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by DanS
Ireland has been rising for a good while now. I like to see it, since they have had very hard economic times for centuries. ef's adjusted GDP per head figures put Ireland even higher than does the CIA. It's quite possible that Ireland will surpass the US in GDP per head in the next couple of years.

Yeah, they should have been growing at quite a pace recently, for I surely remember that they used to be included in the same group with Spain, Greece and Portugal perhaps just five or seven years ago. Hell, they have even appreciably surpassed the UK itself! So their reliance on high-tech paid off. Perhaps the American Irish will soon be heading back en masse to their motherland.

Re productivity, yes the add'l hours that Americans work is fairly well known, and it is baked into the cake. I don't know where the output per hour numbers stand right now US v. Europe, but a couple of years ago those were about even for several of the bigger European economies. Maybe the US is ahead slightly now after the last couple of years.

So, basically, the GDP per capita difference between the US and the old Europe is due to the additional hours that Americans work...

Re Russia, it has a lot of potential, if a couple of things are cleaned up. However, CIA appears to be using different PPP's than others, giving Russia a couple thousand $ boost.

I hope they'll be cleaned up. I expected the number to be around $8,000, but the table gives $9,300. CIA has always tended to overestimate Russia, be it in the Soviet times or now.

[TCO]

just normalizing by perhour worked is not neccesarily saying that Europe is just as strong and the US are workaholics. EU may have high unemplyment rates and the like.

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by TCO
just normalizing by perhour worked is not neccesarily saying that Europe is just as strong and the US are workaholics. EU may have high unemplyment rates and the like.

But the factor of high unemployment rates in Europe actually shifts the US/Europe productivity balance in Europe's favor. Indeed, for a given GDP per capita, the higher is unemployment, the higher should be productivity.

[Saras]

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Thanks for the reference, Dan.

Wow, this table gives a pretty high figure for Russia (more than I expected). Well ahead of Lithuania Saras,

Another surprise for me was Ireland. I thought it was one of the four poorest EU countries (along with Spain, Portugal and Greece). But hell, it turns out to be the richest EU country (next only to Norway, and I don't count artificial paradises like Luxembourg).

Since these are CIA economic figures I fart in their general direction.

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by Saras
Since these are CIA economic figures I fart in their general direction.

Never fart against the wind

[HershOstropoler]

Retail productivity.

[TCO]

Originally posted by The Vagabond


But the factor of high unemployment rates in Europe actually shifts the US/Europe productivity balance in Europe's favor. Indeed, for a given GDP per capita, the higher is unemployment, the higher should be productivity.

Yes. Per hour productivity will. (as less productive workers lose out first.) But per capita productivity won't. And I think both measures have some meaning. As labor rigidity and the like can be looked at.

[DanS]

Hayzeus. 2Q productivity revised upward to a 6.8% annual rate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A24355-2003Sep4.html

[el freako]

Originally posted by DanS
Ireland has been rising for a good while now. I like to see it, since they have had very hard economic times for centuries. ef's adjusted GDP per head figures put Ireland even higher than does the CIA. It's quite possible that Ireland will surpass the US in GDP per head in the next couple of years.

Yes, but it won't be richer.

You see GDP is an easy measure of production but not of income.
Gross National Income (the new name for GNP) is the best measure for this, basically this is GDP plus the difference in net payments (mostly by foreign companies) - in most countries GDP and GNI are almost the same with less than a 2% difference.
But Ireland, with it's massive influx of foreign companies, sends out far more payments than it recieves.
It's GNI was the same as GDP in 1980, 8% less in 1990 and 15% less in 2000.

[The Vagabond]

Interesting observation, el freako.

I have a question. If a foreign company makes an investment into a country, is this counted in GDI of this country?

[The Vagabond]

Originally posted by el freako
But Ireland, with it's massive influx of foreign companies, sends out far more payments than it recieves.
It's GNI was the same as GDP in 1980, 8% less in 1990 and 15% less in 2000.

Actually this makes Ireland the most exploited country in the West. From the marxist point of view at least. So the level of exploitation for Ireland equals 15%.

[PLATO]

I hate to take issue with Adam Smith on anything economic, but...

Th average American Homeowner has added $25000 in debt to their home due to the "refi-boom". This in conjuction with an average drop in interest rate paid by these borrowers actually keeps the real cost of housing relatively flat. In addition, there have been many additions to the homeownership ranks. These additions usually increase their housing costs by 25% simply by buying a home as opposed to renting. The gains in productivity are not explained by the low interest rates at least WRT housing.

[el freako]

Originally posted by The Vagabond
I have a question. If a foreign company makes an investment into a country, is this counted in GDI of this country?

The value added produced by the investment is counted in the countries GDP, the addition to GNI would be this less any remitted profits.

[el freako]

Originally posted by DanS
Hayzeus. 2Q productivity revised upward to a 6.8% annual rate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...-2003Sep4.html

Everyone be aware that that is non-farm, business productivity - not that pertaining to the whole economy.

Using GDP/Employment then productivity went up by 2.5% at an annual rate in Q2 following an annualized fall of 0.8% in Q1. Productivity was 1.5% higher in Q2 2003 than Q2 2002.

[HershOstropoler]

So we are in the new new economy, where low investment levels create record productivity growth.