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ef: Further to our discussion in another thread about IMF's numbers, in September, the IMF estimated that this year's GDP growth was going to be ~ 2.6%. But I can't imagine it being that low. Q2 annualized real growth was 3.3%. Q3 might turn out to have been a real blockbuster--6% annualized, maybe higher.
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I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891 -
If any are interested, I started a blog as a way to organize my thoughts. A lot like this thread, and includes spreadsheets, graphs, etc. The service that I use has a nice upload feature, and you can categorize posts.
Carried AwayI came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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7.2% GDP growth? WTF???Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.Comment
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Yeh, B-A-B-Y!!!
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Well if you throw ultra-low interest rates, a liquidity surge, a housing bubble and a couple hundred billion in fiscal stimulus at the economy, it's enough to make an old elephant dance. The question is, for how long... everything is now tied to the debt game.“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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This elephant is dancing while the dancing's good!
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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And enjoy the ensuing heart attack.
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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Hmmm... I guess pretty phenomenal productivity growth is going to follow from this. WaPo has the market expecting 8.5% and the briefing forecast at 9.5%. Haven't seen Q/Q non-farm business 9.5% since 1973. Not in my lifetime.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Just shows you you can take those numbers to the dump.
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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Hey, wouldn't you give your left nut for numbers like that?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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No, I'd just hire a hopelessly incompetent central banker and an AA accountant.“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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Since the debt is still increasing I'm starting to agree with you, but I'm still winning our bet. The EU won't do any better than us.Originally posted by HershOstropoler
Well if you throw ultra-low interest rates, a liquidity surge, a housing bubble and a couple hundred billion in fiscal stimulus at the economy, it's enough to make an old elephant dance. The question is, for how long... everything is now tied to the debt game.
I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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What was our bet?“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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Funny, I always thought you were older than meOriginally posted by DanS
Hmmm... I guess pretty phenomenal productivity growth is going to follow from this. WaPo has the market expecting 8.5% and the briefing forecast at 9.5%. Haven't seen Q/Q non-farm business 9.5% since 1973. Not in my lifetime.
Well, as non-farm business GDP rose by 8.5% Q/Q then that implies static or falling total hours.
This recession has been very different from previous ones, with productivity roaring ahead but total hours falling far furthur and for longer than before.
Taking the non-farm business sector and comparing across the last 5 cycles to this point (3 3/4 years from peak)
Total Output:
Q3 1969 peak: +17.4%
Q2 1973 peak: +5.2%
Q1 1980 peak: +5.3%
Q1 1990 peak: +5.5%
Q1 2000 peak: +8.0%
Productivity:
Q3 1969 peak: +13.3%
Q2 1973 peak: +4.7%
Q1 1980 peak: +5.7%
Q1 1990 peak: +5.6%
Q1 2000 peak: +14.7%
Hours worked:
Q3 1969 peak: +3.6%
Q2 1973 peak: +0.4%
Q1 1980 peak: -0.4%
Q1 1990 peak: -0.1%
Q1 2000 peak: -5.9%
Actually if you look at the the 5 years to Q3 2003 then productivity has increased faster (3.6% at an annual rate) than at any time since the early 1960's (which were themselves unusual as the average for 1947-2003 is 2.1%) but total hours worked has shown the worst performance on record (-0.6% at an annual rate, compared to an average of 1.5%).
I'll say it again, high productivity growth and a lackluster labour market - welcome america to the european economy of 1973-96Last edited by el freako; November 6, 2003, 13:19.19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
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Whether the US or the EU would have a better growth rate between 2003 and 2006.Originally posted by HershOstropoler
What was our bet?I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
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