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GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 14

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  • So we have 3 years to go.
    “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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    • Funny, I always thought you were older than me


      Nope. I'm still a youngin'.

      Q1 2000 peak: -6.1%
      That's a real head scratcher, isn't it? I guess we shed the lowest value hours, like all of those dot bombs, manufacturing, etc.

      I'll say it again, high productivity growth and a lackluster labour market - welcome america to the european economy of 1973-96
      I doubt we will be quite like that. Labor always finds its price, and we keep shoveling labor into our economy at a rapid clip. At first, they might be jobs that Europeans and many Americans would turn their noses up at, but they represent honest days' wages.
      Last edited by DanS; November 5, 2003, 11:06.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

      Comment


      • And for Colon, here's Toyota doing it up in style. Props to them.

        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

        Comment


        • Originally posted by HershOstropoler
          So we have 3 years to go.
          A little more than 2 actually.
          I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
          - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

          Comment


          • Dan, consider that the rising unemployment and high productivity growth are likely connected. After all, when firms fire people, they fire the least productive ones, thereby automatically increasing the average productivity of the remainder. As EF already implied, a similar effect had been taking place in Europe during the late 90's, only in the reverse. (fast employment growth depressing productivity growth, as less productive employees were hired)

            Re Toyota, most of the Japanese automobiles has been doing really well: check Honda and Nissan. Mitsubushi was also on the mend IIRC.
            DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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            • Originally posted by Colon
              As EF already implied, a similar effect had been taking place in Europe during the late 90's, only in the reverse. (fast employment growth depressing productivity growth, as less productive employees were hired)
              Employment growth stimulates demand though. That boosts productivity.
              I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
              - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

              Comment


              • Dan, consider that the rising unemployment and high productivity growth are likely connected. After all, when firms fire people, they fire the least productive ones, thereby automatically increasing the average productivity of the remainder. As EF already implied, a similar effect had been taking place in Europe during the late 90's, only in the reverse. (fast employment growth depressing productivity growth, as less productive employees were hired)
                I think I've already gone over this with ef in pretty good detail. He will be able to give you a good description, but on a summary level, high productivity growth is attached to high hours growth just as much as it is attached to hours losses (I think high productivity growth/high hours growth comes out ahead). I'll see if I can find my notes on this for the coincidence of these two figures.
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Kidicious


                  A little more than 2 actually.
                  We were talking about the 2003-06 period, ie including 2006, were we not?
                  “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by HershOstropoler


                    We were talking about the 2003-06 period, ie including 2006, were we not?
                    Maybe. I thought you didn't remember.
                    I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                    - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                    Comment


                    • I remember the time period of a similar bet. IIRC I used 2006, based on the last hurray of the Greenspan bubble. But who knows, maybe they really go unconventional and it works for a while, then I'll lose this bet.
                      “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by HershOstropoler
                        I remember the time period of a similar bet. IIRC I used 2006, based on the last hurray of the Greenspan bubble. But who knows, maybe they really go unconventional and it works for a while, then I'll lose this bet.
                        I said they are damned if they do and damned if they don't so they might as well put off the enevitable. The US economy is growing now and maybe it will next year. It wouldn't have if they didn't lower interest rates. There is another recession coming for sure, but everything taken into consideration it was the right decision.
                        I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                        - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                        Comment


                        • Only 8.1%? What a disappointment!
                          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by DanS


                            I think I've already gone over this with ef in pretty good detail. He will be able to give you a good description, but on a summary level, high productivity growth is attached to high hours growth just as much as it is attached to hours losses (I think high productivity growth/high hours growth comes out ahead). I'll see if I can find my notes on this for the coincidence of these two figures.
                            Not sure if I got ya... Don't the hours worked in the BLS release represent the average worked hours, not the total of worked hours of all employees?
                            DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by DanS
                              Only 8.1%? What a disappointment!
                              That means that hours (which means total hours worked colon) have started to rise for the first time since Q1 2000

                              I have edited the above statistics to reflect the new data
                              19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

                              Comment


                              • Yep, it looks like the hours worked is coming around. Payrolls up. Average workweek up.
                                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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