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GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 14

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  • #61
    Nein Herr Rechtsberater

    It's more like everybody that didn't get fired is working 3 different jobs.
    We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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    • #62
      Tell that to the BLS, seems they miss 2.1 out of 3 jobs.
      “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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      • #63
        How come you don't get a job with BLS? Or their Austrian counterpart?
        We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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        • #64
          For the BLS, I don't like those pink glasses.
          “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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          • #65
            Here's a good article with regard to a running discussion that Colon and I are having with regard to Sony.

            Sony is restructuring, with a goal of 10% operating margins by '06. A move to more modular production in lower cost areas (sound familiar, Colon? ).



            Personally, I wonder how anybody could be satisified with a move from 4% operating margins to 10% operating margins with the kind of golden brand name that Sony has. It seems to me to be a continuation of the pervasive Japanese business culture of running a profitless business (Toyota excepted, in a pretty spectacular fashion for a car company).

            Sony is going to continue to touch foreheads against the likes of Microsoft, which has operating margins of 37% and R&D spending of about $5 billion. Or now even GE, the VVVBUSC, which has operating margins of 14%.
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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            • #66
              Don't obsess on OM. look at FCF.

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              • #67
                Does that change the analysis?
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                • #68
                  Don't know. But it often does. And if so, you want the better FCF, not the better OM. OM is subject to a lot of games that FCF is not subject to.

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                  • #69
                    In any event, operating margins was the benchmark used in the article, so that's the comparison that I used.
                    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Here's an article about 3G, which as you know I've always been down on. At least $100 billion in good capital down the crapper--just for the licenses. Brings a tear to my eye.

                      Europe's first fully fledged 3G operator is struggling. So is 3G doomed?


                      FT had a good article about how Canon is bucking the no-profit Japanese corporate ethos by focusing on profits and R&D (yes, revolutionary concepts, I know). Sales are flat, but gross margins are at a relatively healthy 48% and the bottom line is looking increasingly good.

                      With regard to R&D, I've been particularly jaded about Japan. I see way too many companies that spend a lot of money in areas where their products are largely undifferentiated. A half dozen or so companies make almost identical products and at the end of the day nobody makes any profits. Repeat until oblivion.

                      Given the fact that R&D is an expense like all others, I'm somewhat skeptical about Canon's approach. This is especially so, considering that the R&D is meant to drive sales and Canon's sales have been flat. The more important piece of the puzzle of its recent success seems to be cost control and smart marketing. But I guess R&D takes some time to bear fruit. I'm positive on the concept of R&D driving sales.
                      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                      • #71
                        An even more interesting Bloomberg article:



                        It's Time for Deutsche Bank to Get Out of Germany: Matthew Lynn
                        Sept. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Some corporate moves would be social and political dynamite. Coca-Cola Co. quitting the U.S. to protest the invasion of Iraq would be one. Sony Corp. leaving Japan because of the failure of reform would be another. Deutsche Bank AG moving out of Germany on account of the growing anti-business culture of its home country would be a third.

                        The first two are pure fantasy. The third? Who knows? Unbelievable as it sounds, it could happen.

                        In London last week, the Financial Times and the Times of London ran stories suggesting that Deutsche Bank may leave its Frankfurt base and relocate. Maybe it would go to London, maybe somewhere else. But it would get out of Germany.

                        The reason? The latest provocation is said to be the decision by a Dusseldorf court to make the bank's chief executive, Josef Ackermann, stand trial in connection with payments made to former Mannesmann AG officials after that company was taken over by Britain's Vodafone Group Plc for $186 billion three years ago.

                        Deutsche Bank was quick to deny the reports it might leave Germany -- and to deny that Ackermann would quit over the issue.

                        Still, the ``Deutsche Bank to Quit Germany'' story comes around with the regularity of the seasons. We've heard it before and we'll hear it again, as the bank's patience with the high-tax and heavily regulated regime of its home country wears thin.

                        You don't need to be an expert in the black art of public relations to figure out what's going on. Deutsche Bank quietly suggests it may leave Germany. The story runs. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has a mild heart attack as he reads it and commands all his ministers to be extra nice to the bank. Then the speculation is quickly denied.

                        Bickering Couple

                        Germany and Deutsche Bank increasingly resemble a tired, bickering old couple. ``I'm going to leave you,'' shrieks the wife as her husband once again forgets their anniversary. ``This time I mean it, I'm really leaving,'' she cries even louder as her birthday passes uncelebrated.

                        But now is the time to make good on those threats. Ackermann should pluck up his courage and get out. If he doesn't, it is hard to see how the bank, which should be the mightiest in Europe, can avoid slipping into the second division.

                        The questions for Ackermann are, ``What's holding the bank back?'' and ``Where would it go?''

                        Politically, a move by Deutsche Bank out of Germany would be explosive. But that's a problem for the politicians. As a cold business decision, it would be hard to fault.

                        Germany is holding Deutsche Bank back -- and it needs to do something fast if it is to keep its place at the high table of the world's most important banks. Deutsche Bank has a market value of just 32 billion euros ($36.6 billion), less than BNP Paribas SA, Banco Santander Central Hispano SA or Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. It is only because of its history that we still think of Deutsche Bank as a big European bank.

                        Leaving Home

                        The record shows that banks can quit their home territory and flourish. HSBC Holdings Plc famously moved its domicile out of Hong Kong before the 1997 transfer of authority over the territory from Britain to China. It then turned itself into one of the most successful banks in the world.

                        Deutsche Bank could do the same. It doesn't need to have its headquarters in Germany any more than HSBC needed to be domiciled in Hong Kong or Shanghai.

                        It would face a potentially devastating backlash from German customers distraught at what at least a few people would surely see as a betrayal of the homeland.

                        Still, who cares?

                        Domestic Sympathy

                        For one, retail and small-business lending is a relatively small portion of Deutsche Bank's portfolio. For another, many Germans would sympathize, particularly in the business community. Infineon Technologies AG is one company that's been threatening to quit Germany. Other businesses considering a new headquarters are more likely to applaud a decision to move abroad than they are to cease trading with Deutsche Bank in protest.

                        Ackermann could win as many new customers as he loses.

                        Where would he go? London and Zurich are the two obvious choices.

                        London is Europe's most important financial center. It has the skills Deutsche Bank needs, and the company already has a big operation there. Compared with Germany, the city has relatively low taxes and regulation. But both are rising all the time. There would be little point in going through the trauma of leaving Frankfurt only to relocate somewhere that was starting to copy German regulations and taxes.

                        Switzerland

                        Zurich is a more natural home. It's a German-speaking city and another great banking center. The taxes are low and the culture is business-friendly. It is close to the center of Europe, which is Deutsche Bank's natural market. And it is home to UBS AG and Credit Suisse Group, the two other European banks that, like Deutsche Bank, aim to be big players in global corporate banking.

                        Based in Zurich, Deutsche Bank executives wouldn't have to deal with as many court cases. They could shake off Germany's suffocating taxes and labor laws. And they could set about the task of rebuilding the company as one of the world's great banks.

                        Who knows, they might even do the homeland a favor. Deutsche Bank's departure could well be the catalyst that finally convinces the German government that its business community needs to be embraced, not hounded out of the country.
                        Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
                        Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
                        Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

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                        • #72
                          I never quite understood why Germans have such a completely Byzantine banking system. When you think about it, Deutsche could be the unquestionable No.1 in Europe, but no, the Germans just HAVE to have Sparkasses, Hypothekenbanks, Bausparkasses, Landesbanks (all AAA rated, for a very good reason ) etc. Deutshe, iirc, can't even go and collect retail deposits.
                          Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
                          Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
                          Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            How high are the taxes in Germany? How tight are the regulatory controls? How bad are the labor laws?

                            It always seems tough to find concrete answers. Then I hear about things like maximum overtime laws in France and suddenly things start coming into focus (what exactly are they thinking?).

                            Edit: They can't even collect retail deposits? Hmmm...
                            Last edited by DanS; September 24, 2003, 12:25.
                            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Fed's Poole says long term US econ prospects superb



                              I am optimistic about the U.S. economy. The recent performance of productivity has been stunning," he told Reuters while attending a conference in Moscow where he was due to deliver a speech. "I think that promises high performance for the US economy in the long run ... I think that long term prospects are absolutely superb," he added.
                              Last edited by DanS; September 24, 2003, 12:30.
                              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by Saras


                                The reason? The latest provocation is said to be the decision by a Dusseldorf court to make the bank's chief executive, Josef Ackermann, stand trial in connection with payments made to former Mannesmann AG officials after that company was taken over by Britain's Vodafone Group Plc for $186 billion three years ago.
                                They caught a pig at the trough, and that's now anti-business?

                                I suggest the NYSE instantly relocates to the Bahamas.
                                “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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