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Originally posted by Saras
So what's the deal with mundane Sparkassen dominating retail deposits?
So what's the deal with mundane Sparkassen dominating retail deposits?
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Could you rephrase that question?“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324) -
Sparkasse = biggest credit institute in East GermanyComment
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It's awfully tough to say. They could catch up faster than ef says, but they could also go into a long period of economic chaos, like has happened in Indonesia. Also, the US could experience a period of low or high economic growth as well, but admittedly those numbers are more easily range-bound--we have a pretty good idea what the trends are for the US.yeah but they will catch up? danger!!I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Why bother with "PPP". Use currency exchange rates.Originally posted by el freako
There are many difficulties in comparing growth rates across economies - as I have said before here
I have done several studies comparing constant-price GDP growth rates to current-price GDP converted using Purchasing Power Parities, here are some results:
'Correction factor' (i.e. what to add or subtract from the reported growth rate) for selected economies, with US growth rates as a base:
United States: 0.0% (obviously
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Japan: +0.4%
Germany: +0.6%
France: +0.1%
Britian: +0.4%
Italy: +0.5%
Canada: +0.4%
China: -2.3%
India: +0.5%
EU15: +0.5%
I find it interesting to compare the more-often reported statistics with the 'adjusted' values and also correcting for population growth:
'corrected' growth in GDP per head 1993-2003:
United States: 2.1%
Japan: 1.4%
Germany: 1.9%
France: 1.8%
Britian: 3.0%
Italy: 2.1%
China: 5.5%
India: 4.7%
EU15: 2.5%Comment
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what's the difference, GP? please explain what both mean.Comment
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el freako: I was actually thinking along the line of simple lies for political reasons...
How do you -if you actually do so- model the fact that the chinese growth will start decline as it's a lot easier to catch up than to take the lead in economic development?Actually my long term (50 year) forecasts show China's GDP only equalling the US's level in 2050.
It will continue it's rapid rise from the current 55% of the US level to around 80% in 2030, then the rise will slow significantly (as the effects of their one-child policy cause the workforce to shrink)Comment
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... and PPP is better!
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Well in that case I think you should applaud the Euro area's amazing growth rate of over 15% over the last year - so what if 14.5% of that was due to the appreciation of the euro, after all we should all use currency exchange rates.Originally posted by TCO
Why bother with "PPP". Use currency exchange rates.
With European growth six times faster than the US level when will americans ditch their sluggish economic practices and adopt our 'continental' model with high social protection, government spending and taxation.
The above is to show how absurd your stance is TCO.Last edited by el freako; September 25, 2003, 12:22.19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
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what does Purchase Power Parity mean? what is the currency exchange rates stuff about?
enlighten me!!
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Well the 'catch up' is in the form of productivity - I assume a faster rate of growth in productivity in China (although the gap slowly narrows - I use an algorithm based on what happened to a group of countries, mainly in europe and latin america, during 1950-2000).Originally posted by Kropotkin
How do you -if you actually do so- model the fact that the chinese growth will start decline as it's a lot easier to catch up than to take the lead in economic development?
However China's working-age population (15-64) will start to shrink from the mid 2020's onward, the US's also slows sharply after 2010 but recovers slightly in the 2030's and 40's.
This difference in the relative growth in the working-age population is what accounts for the slowdown in China's 'catchup' with the US after 2030.
Purchasing Power Parities are an attempt to compare price levels across economies - basically you take a 'basket' of goods and services in one country, see how much it costs and then see how much the same 'basket' costs in another - you then use the resulting rate for converting the size of the economies.
This is better than exchange rates because it covers many prices that are not affected by exchange rates because they are not traded internationally - things like haircuts or take-away foods for example.
Exchange rates are also inaccurate because the vast majority of the trades that result in them have noting to do with GDP (or value-added) but relate to capital flows.Last edited by el freako; September 25, 2003, 12:24.19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
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I still think comparing the currency converted GDP figures is useful as well. For instance, the argument that the US demand growth is driving global economic growth disproportionately (which it is) makes no sense unless you consider the currency converted GDP growth.The above is to show how absurd your stance is TCO.
Well, I do. And the numbers back me up.I don't consider it an expansion period yet.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Surely you see the circular logic in that statement?Originally posted by DanS
I still think comparing the currency converted GDP figures is useful as well. For instance, the argument that the US demand growth is driving global economic growth disproportionately (which it is) makes no sense unless you consider the currency converted GDP growth.
It makes just as much sense if you convert using exchange rates or PPPs, it's just that the US's 'contribution' is significantly smaller.
If the (rather sluggish by past standards) recovery in the US is 'driving world growth' then why have commodity prices been so bullish, maybe because demand in China is booming?
Measuring the share of global imports using exchange rates is more useful, but that still runs into the problem that the prime determinant of exchange rates is relative investment flows, not relative imports.
Using the price determined in one market to calculate the value of production in another is problematic, at best.19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
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Yep. But so many say it, so it must be true.Surely you see the circular logic in that statement? We've got to know why they say it.
Demand in China is booming. No doubt about it. But how is this impacting world growth? Are the Chinese consumers buying imported goods and services?If the (rather sluggish by past standards) recovery in the US is 'driving world growth' then why have commodity prices been so bullish, maybe because demand in China is booming?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Not finished goods to any significant extent.
However Chinese industry is sucking in large amounts of raw materials, which is leading to the price rise (which is unusual when the developed world is still in a period of very sluggish growth)19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
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Do you have any numbers on these raw materials inflows and how they compare to US raw materials inflows?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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