President Uribe winning big in Colombia

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Fez
Edit: Forget it.. I am not responding to this anymore. I have a bad head ache.

Sorry to make you think, I know it's hard.

[Spiffor]

Fez :

You believe that only brute force will work. As such, you are as wrong as those who believe only negociations will work (you'll notice Boris doesn't think so).

Pastrana's mistake was to believe the guerillas could be convinced with only diplomacy. Since the FARC want power in whole Colombia, and felt strong during Pastrana's negociations, this reasoning was doomed.

However, your mistake is to believe the FARC will be defeated only with brute force. It is wrong as well : there will always be groups of survivors hiding in the jungle, doing some hit' n' run attacks or kidnappings in Colombian cities, no matter how much force you put - a 100% eradication isn't possible. This will highly annoy the population in the end, when it'll see that no matter the efforts, there are still some FARCs or paramilitaries spreading fear.

The only solution is a mix of force to fight the guerillas in their current state, clientelism in order to cut their support as much as possible, and cunning negociations in order for them to admit defeat once they're in a position of weakness.

The use of only one of those 3 tools cannot lead to the restoration of peace. I sure hope Uribe is aware of that, and is trying to improve Colombia's way of life to cut off any support for the FARC.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Spiffor
No, from the fact that their illegal businesses will have outlived their usefulness.

What sort of reforms would you suggest in order to keep them from becoming victim to a litigious public in the same manner tobacco companies have been?

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov


Sorry to make you think, I know it's hard.

No.. it happens when you run into a plexiglass door. I turn my head one way thinking the door was open and bam.

Spiffor:

You believe that only brute force will work. As such, you are as wrong as those who believe only negociations will work (you'll notice Boris doesn't think so).

Well once the FARC is desperate enough and cornered then the negociation that will commence are that of unconditional surrender.

However, your mistake is to believe the FARC will be defeated only with brute force. It is wrong as well : there will always be groups of survivors hiding in the jungle, doing some hit' n' run attacks or kidnappings in Colombian cities, no matter how much force you put - a 100% eradication isn't possible. This will highly annoy the population in the end, when it'll see that no matter the efforts, there are still some FARCs or paramilitaries spreading fear.

Well at least the population will have more security given Uribe the mandate he needs. And once the security forces are beefed up, the FARC, ELN and AUC will find it very difficult to operate.

So I do propose a mixed settlement. One brought on by force, but a final negociation for unconditional surrender. There can be some partial amnesty, I will concede.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
What sort of reforms would you suggest in order to keep them from becoming victim to a litigious public in the same manner tobacco companies have been?

Like tobacco companies, I have no problem with seeing dealers of death being sued to hell

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov




You excused Pinochet's murders because he brought about what you thought were good economic changes. So I am baffled by your previous condemnation of Hitler, because although he was a murdering sociopath, at least he brought about good economic times for the Fatherland.

this is historically innaccurate. While a burst of military spending had a keynsian effect and reduced unemployement in the mid-30's, by 1938 Germany was almost bankrupt, and stayed afloat for the next few years with captured gold and resources. And of course Hitler left Germany in 1945 in dismal economic shape, very much in contrast to Pinochet.

Not that it makes any difference. I suspect the real reason most Pinochet defenders differniate him from Hitler would be the scale of the murders, and the claim that all his victims were politicals who somehow deserved it - rather than a genocide of entire peoples, including children. Thus Pinochet is more comparable to a great many dictators of the right and left, (eg Castro, Assad, the Shah of Iran), rather than a Hitler, Stalin, or Saddam. (now if you want a mass killer who really did bring economic progress Stalin would be a better example)

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Spiffor

Like tobacco companies, I have no problem with seeing dealers of death being sued to hell

Then we're back where we started.

[JCG]

Originally posted by Spiffor

The only solution is a mix of force to fight the guerillas in their current state, clientelism in order to cut their support as much as possible, and cunning negociations in order for them to admit defeat once they're in a position of weakness.

The use of only one of those 3 tools cannot lead to the restoration of peace. I sure hope Uribe is aware of that, and is trying to improve Colombia's way of life to cut off any support for the FARC.

Sure seems like a plausible solution. We could say that Uribe's trying to do the first two things, while leaving the last aspect to a future administration...I'd also personally doubt all this can be done at the same time, much less within the timeframe of a single government.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
Your synapses aren't firing, son. Listen carefully: The rebels are receiving the bulk of their funds from drug money

This isn't true. They recieve the bulk of their money from kidnapping and extortion. The drug lords have their own army, known as the AUC, a.k.a. the paras, a.k.a the paramilitaries, a.k.a. retired (and not-so-retired) Columbian military.

The FACR and ELN do impose a tax on the drug lords in their territories, but they don't traffic themselves, according to everyone but the US and Columbian governments, and they aren't very objective. Drug growing peasants receive more money for their plants in rebel territory, also, since the rebels force the drug lords to pay them a decent wage.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Then we're back where we started.

No, because new competitors could emerge in the legal market, being way more competitive than their illegal counterparts (and being legally shielded against the same kind of actions, since they won't do the legal mistakes previously done by the others).
As such, the illegal cartels will die because all their clients will prefer the cheaper and risk-free trade.

[JCG]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
The FACR and ELN do impose a tax on the drug lords in their territories, but they don't traffic themselves, according to everyone but the US and Columbian governments, and they aren't very objective. Drug growing peasants receive more money for their plants in rebel territory, also, since the rebels force the drug lords to pay them a decent wage.

The World Bank estimates that the FARC gets 500 million dollars a year from controlling coca plantations alone, not including the money that certain fronts make from selling already crystalized cocaine and what they charge narcos for using their crude landing strips in shipments. Keep in mind that this doesn't include what they make from amapola and other drugs, for example.

As for not being involved in the drug trade at all...the capture of "Carlos Bolas" in Surinam last year and that whole business surrounding Brazilian drug lord "Fernandinho" suggests otherwise.

The paramilitaries may be closer, historically, to the drug lords but that isn't a reason to undermine the reality that FARC involvement in the business has been growing in recent decades, as can be seen just from the fact that they control most of the zones where the crops and plantations are located.

EDIT:
The same World Bank report estimates their yearly gains from extortion at 200 million. Of course, all these numbers may be far off, but then again nobody outside the guerrilla can say to have fully accurate information....

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


This isn't true. They recieve the bulk of their money from kidnapping and extortion. The drug lords have their own army, known as the AUC, a.k.a. the paras, a.k.a the paramilitaries, a.k.a. retired (and not-so-retired) Columbian military.

The FACR and ELN do impose a tax on the drug lords in their territories, but they don't traffic themselves, according to everyone but the US and Columbian governments, and they aren't very objective. Drug growing peasants receive more money for their plants in rebel territory, also, since the rebels force the drug lords to pay them a decent wage.

AUC stands for - Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia
FARC stands for - Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias del Colombia
ELN stands for - Ejercito de Liberacion Nacional

These three groups used to have political aims but don't even think about giving them any credibilty chegitz. Forget it. Sure the FARC and ELN may be "communist" but give them no credibility. Whatever views they may have had early in their rebellion has been twisted since then. It is all about drug and extortion profits. That is the truth.

Considering the Colombian Army is quadruple the size of all these groups combined and outspends them I don't see much of a chance for them anymore. But don't you dare even try to give these murdering illogical rebel groups (including the AUC, which I also hate) any credibility.

By the way the ties between the Army and AUC are very few nowadays to nearly nonexistent with Uribe in power. Just a few days ago, Army soldiers went into this AUC base and killed 11 or 12 AUC members.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by JCG
The World Bank

is effectively an arm of the US government.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara

is effectively an arm of the US government.

damn - I was about to post that - with appropriate sarcasm - i knew someone would say that.

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


is effectively an arm of the US government.

Chegitz, can you please disregard yourself from this debate? You actually gave the rebels some credit, and ignored the fact they no longer have a political agenda. I have no respect for you now what-so-ever. I know people who actually had to live under the threat of the FARC and ELN...