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Given how close the reformists have come to rejecting the state. They just need to get some balls, and we aren't helping.
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"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon -
But what evidence do you have for "absolutely pivotal"? Those are strong words and I want to know what is behind that assertion.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Again, the reformists have been very close to rejecting the state a few times in the past couple years. Since the Mullahs have been able to pile propaganda upon propaganda questioning the legitamacy of the reformists due to our beligerant stance towards Iran, this stance likely is a deciding factor to a large extent. The arguments of the conservatives are pretty much limited to calling the reformists traitors.But what evidence do you have for "absolutely pivotal"? Those are strong words and I want to know what is behind that assertion."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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The Shah controlled everything, and the military was on his side.
Really? You do realize that the military defected to the revolution pretty quickly. The really weren't fans of the Shah. A revolution won't kick out the mullahs... another difference is that the mullahs are pretty popular, especially among the older generation who was around in the late 70s.“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)Comment
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Since the Mullahs have been able to pile propaganda upon propaganda questioning the legitamacy of the reformists due to our beligerant stance towards Iran, this stance likely is a deciding factor to a large extent.
How do you know that the propaganda has had its intended impact? Couldn't the deciding factor have been that the conservative's thugs broke up the street demonstrations, like last time, and the reformers didn't have the guts to stand by the street demonstrators and 70% (or whatever) of the population?
The arguments of the conservatives are pretty much limited to calling the reformists traitors.
And how can you judge the kind of impact that this has? And then how can you link that to actions by the US. The mullahs have said a lot of things over the last 23 years.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Yes, but how antagonistic was the military to the Shah before the revolution actually got going? He had a huge, badass army - a couple hundred thousand IIRC, so everyone figured he'd always stay in power. And then came the revolution.Really? You do realize that the military defected to the revolution pretty quickly
Yet their agenda had decidedly failed by the public barometer - the elected reps - over and over again.another difference is that the mullahs are pretty popular, especially among the older generation who was around in the late 70s."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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Yes, but how antagonistic was the military to the Shah before the revolution actually got going? He had a huge, badass army - a couple hundred thousand IIRC, so everyone figured he'd always stay in power. And then came the revolution.
It wasn't as solid as you think it was. There were many religious guys in the military and they were discussion coup right before the Shah got kicked.
Yet their agenda had decidedly failed by the public barometer - the elected reps - over and over again.
You never heard of splitting your vote? Where a Republican might vote Democrat for President so one party doesn't control? The conservatives already have the ultimate control... so give the reformers some power and you won't go too far.
But try and overthrow the mullahs, and there might be problems. I mean, they aren't just political leaders, they are RELIGIOUS leaders! That's an entirely different ballgame. There won't be a revolution against them anytime soon because of the they control the spiritual and the temporal.“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)Comment
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If you think that the propaganda isn't making the reformists less popular, you've got to be ****ing kidding me. Many people in the US aren't able to see through state-sponsored bull****; do you think Iranians are immune from the "if you aren't with us, you're against us" factor?How do you know that the propaganda has had its intended impact?
Obviously this is the most important factor. I wouldn't dispute that. But again, given that the reformists were so close to pulling it off, there's no question in my mind that our policy has contributed significantly to their actions.Couldn't the deciding factor have been that the conservative's thugs broke up the street demonstrations, like last time, and the reformers didn't have the guts to stand by the street demonstrators and 70% (or whatever) of the population?"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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If you think that the propaganda isn't making the reformists less popular, you've got to be ****ing kidding me. Many people in the US aren't able to see through state-sponsored bull****; do you think Iranians are immune from the "if you aren't with us, you're against us" factor?
You are just assuming. What evidence do you have that this is so? As counterevidence, I point out that estimates of about 3 million Iranians have access to satellite dishes and thus non-mullah propaganda. Non-mullah-influenced thought can be had by purchasing an internet card from an ISP.
But again, given that the reformists were so close to pulling it off, there's no question in my mind that our policy has contributed significantly to their actions.
Circular arguments won't help you. What evidence do you have to support this?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Actually, this is sort of destorthing the basis for Shiite clerical power. Clerics are learned scholars in this system, and a person does not have to follow the injunctions of any one cleric. They get to shop around and decide which Ayatollah is the most learned and thus the one to follow. One of the crtiques of the current Ayatollah in charge (forgot his name) is that he was a low level Cleric chosen for political reasons by Khomeini, instead of the fellow grand Ayatollah, Monetzeri, who was supposed to be the successor before he and Khomeini had a falling out that ended with Montezeri being put under house arrest.Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
But try and overthrow the mullahs, and there might be problems. I mean, they aren't just political leaders, they are RELIGIOUS leaders! That's an entirely different ballgame. There won't be a revolution against them anytime soon because of the they control the spiritual and the temporal.If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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The porblem is that most Iranians would still want a system in which clerics are part of the gov, if not the heads of it. We are in no position to take any real steps against the Mullahs, so what is the point of endless shouting at them if it does nothing to imporve relations (specially since given our current position, the Iranians could do plenty to make our lives harder in Iraq, and in Afghanistan. After all, if the intel Rummy is ususing to accuse Iran of ties to Al qaeda is as good as his previous Iraq intel, well, (does anything more need to be said?)Originally posted by DanS
You are just assuming. What evidence do you have that this is so? As counterevidence, I point out that estimates of about 3 million Iranians have access to satellite dishes and thus non-mullah propaganda. Non-mullah-influenced thought can be had by purchasing an internet card from an ISP.If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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Neither is today's Iranian military. After all, the military courts had actually been checking the abuses of the police against the reformists.It wasn't as solid as you think it was. There were many religious guys in the military and they were discussion coup right before the Shah got kicked.
So you're saying that the conservatives actually have the majority, but they're throwing their votes towards the liberals in bulk. I'd be interested in seeing evidence for this...You never heard of splitting your vote? Where a Republican might vote Democrat for President so one party doesn't control? The conservatives already have the ultimate control... so give the reformers some power and you won't go too far.
I very much doubt that. This isn't 1979 anymore. The Iranian people have grown more religiously liberal. Hell, things like prostitution have been legalized in Iran.But try and overthrow the mullahs, and there might be problems. I mean, they aren't just political leaders, they are RELIGIOUS leaders! That's an entirely different ballgame. There won't be a revolution against them anytime soon because of the they control the spiritual and the temporal."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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The porblem is that most Iranians would still want a system in which clerics are part of the gov, if not the heads of it. We are in no position to take any real steps against the Mullahs, so what is the point of endless shouting at them if it does nothing to imporve relations
How do we know that this is what the Iranians want? Can you reference a poll?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Khameinicurrent Ayatollah in charge (forgot his name)"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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In a country of 70 million. That's not even 5% of the population. You're saying that religious solidarity and nationalism are both non-existent among the Iranian people?You are just assuming. What evidence do you have that this is so? As counterevidence, I point out that estimates of about 3 million Iranians have access to satellite dishes and thus non-mullah propaganda. Non-mullah-influenced thought can be had by purchasing an internet card from an ISP.
And what specific evidence are you looking for? Look at any state at any time, and you can predict what happens. I'm not sure what more I can do. It's not like Zogby takes a trip to Iran every year."Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-BokononComment
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