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How close is China really to becoming a superpower?

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  • #76
    That's the whole return. You may get lucky now and then, true.

    But investing in R&D looks bad on short-term corporate balance sheet.

    Not really true. As said above, private R&D comprises most of R&D in the US.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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    • #77
      Originally posted by DanS
      But investing in R&D looks bad on short-term corporate balance sheet.

      Not really true. As said above, private R&D comprises most of R&D in the US.
      Do you mean "private" vs government or "private" vs public? Corporations are public companies.

      I read in the US economic sensus that even though small (private) companies employ 55% of the total work force, the corporate world generates 2/3 of the revenues and profits. Thus I find it hard to believe that private R&D comprises most of R&D in the US.

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      • #78
        Corporations are public companies.

        No they aren't. The overwhelming vast majority of corporations are private companies.

        I'm talking private as in corporations and corporate/university hybrids versus government funded and government/university hybrids.

        Thus I find it hard to believe that private R&D comprises most of R&D in the US.

        Well, it's true. Go do your homework.

        It's not the things that we don't know that hurt us. It's the things we know, that just aren't so...
        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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        • #79
          Originally posted by DanS
          Corporations are public companies.

          No they aren't. The overwhelming vast majority of corporations are private companies.

          I'm talking private as in corporations and corporate/university hybrids versus government funded and government/university hybrids.

          Thus I find it hard to believe that private R&D comprises most of R&D in the US.

          Well, it's true. Go do your homework.

          It's not the things that we don't know that hurt us. It's the things we know, that just aren't so...
          Ok, your include all corporations as private companies, then I agree you here.

          However, you won't get ground-breaking new technologies by being too focused on immediate commercial needs.

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          • #80
            However, you won't get ground-breaking new technologies by being too focused on immediate commercial needs.

            What makes you think that very many companies are too focused on immediate commercial needs when they do R&D?
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

            Comment

            • #81
              Originally posted by DanS
              However, you won't get ground-breaking new technologies by being too focused on immediate commercial needs.

              What makes you think that very many companies are too focused on immediate commercial needs when they do R&D?
              I would like to know some companies who are engaged in long-term R&D projects. I also would like to know some of the projects.

              And please don't bring up drug development, because I know they take long time to develop and only 1 in 10 drugs that enter clinical trials will eventually be commercialized.

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              • #82
                OK, green and blue laser development is a longer-term endeavor that has been funded by American companies, then Japanese companies, and now American companies again in a private/university hybrid.
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                Comment

                • #83
                  Originally posted by DanS
                  OK, green and blue laser development is a longer-term endeavor that has been funded by American companies, then Japanese companies, and now American companies again in a private/university hybrid.
                  Where can I find such information?

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                  • #84
                    Google Nakamura + blue + laser.
                    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                    Comment

                    • #85
                      I can't predict the future, but the experience of past few decades indicates that more breakthrough technologies resulted from government-sponsored research. Few examples of initiatives by private industry still doesn't change the fact that the great majority of private R&D is focused on commercial products.

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                      • #86
                        You've just restated your position. Haven't backed it up with anything.
                        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                        Comment

                        • #87
                          Originally posted by DanS
                          You've just restated your position. Haven't backed it up with anything.
                          You backed up your position with 1 example, hardly better.

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                          • #88
                            I could go on. In an industry that I know well, agrochemicals, the R&D is planned on a long-term horizon. From candidate compound to product takes at least 5 years and often a decade or more. These companies include Syngenta, BASF, Monsanto, Aventis, and Dow.

                            No government funding.
                            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                            • #89
                              I think in many ways China will be a conventional superpower within the next few decades. It doesn't really need military might to project very far in order to count - merely enough to convincingly defend its own borders. It also needs to be well-integrated in the international stage, which it is clearly working hard at becoming. Economy is very important, as this pays large dividends in domestic stability and overseas influence.

                              However, don't forget that we're just talking superpower here. I'd argue that Russia and the EU have the potential to be superpowers too.

                              But there's only one hyperpower, and that's the USA. For China to overtake the USA anytime within the next century would require a series of very shrewd moves on its part and a series of unmitigated disasters for America.

                              And I'm not sure even the Chinese want that to happen. A strong, stable America, just like a strong, stable China, is important to global stability in many ways.
                              "lol internet" ~ AAHZ

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                              • #90
                                Originally posted by DanS
                                You've just restated your position. Haven't backed it up with anything.
                                I think LM's point is about basic vs application research.

                                Application research: okay, now we have these red laser LED's. How do we make them into blue laser LED's?

                                Basic research: what's the stuff in cone snail venom?
                                (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
                                (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
                                (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

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