How close is China really to becoming a superpower?

[Drake Tungsten]

Yeah, but Japan has a huge middle class, and even though it's not quite like the US, there's a good deal of domestic consumption.

I don't see why China wouldn't develop a middle class similar to Japan's.

[Imran Siddiqui]

In 1950, Japan was only a third world country because it had just had the living shi*t bombed out of it. During the Meiji restoration, Japan became a significant industrial power, and obviously developed a military quite capable of doing some serious damage on the world stage (without nukes, mind you). It's technological prowess may not have been up to western standards, but it wasn't that far behind.

Fine, take 1880 Japan and 1930 Japan .

If China can achieve South Korea's level of prosperity, then it will easily surpass every other country in the world save for the US.

Yep!

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
If China can achieve South Korea's level of prosperity, then it will easily surpass every other country in the world save for the US. The sheer size of China greatly augments any improvements it will make in the future.

If China can achieve SK's level of prosperity across the board in 50 years, I'll be surprised.

[Drake Tungsten]

If China can achieve SK's level of prosperity across the board in 50 years, I'll be surprised.

I don't really know if they can or not; there are too many variables involved to make an accurate prediction. It's certainly possible, however, so you might as well plan how to respond to it if it does happen.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
It needs a middle class. Until it develops a base of consumers, it will never have an economy worth mentioning.

"Middle class?" Boy, the term is now thoroughly abused.

[Tingkai]

At current GDP growth rates, China will GDP equivalent of about US28,000 per capita in about 30 years. That's close to most western countries today.

But having a developed economy won't make it a superpower. Even having nukes doesn't make it a superpower.

China will need a bluewater navy. something it is only just beginning to develop. It needs an army and air force that can exert influence outside its boundaries, which it doesn't have right now.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Kontiki
If China can achieve SK's level of prosperity across the board in 50 years, I'll be surprised.

50 years is a long time. You need to remember that poorer countries improve much faster than rich ones.

That said, I don't think the PRC will be a superpower in the forseeable future. Being a superpower means it needs to project power across the globe, which doesn't fit in the current policies.

[orange]

somewhere between "not close" and "Light years off"

[Frogman]

Its not going to take that long. China is the most significant economy in the world outside the US. The investment in China is enormous and the potential domestic market will transform asia. There is no doubt China in 10 years will be an economic superpower.

To be a true superpower, you need the military to back it up. Unlike the Soviets who spent beyond their means, the Chinese will be able to afford a superpower military and they certainly have the will and the manpower to achieve it. In 15 years, China will be a superpower to match the US.

[I Am Jeff]

Look back farther when westeners first went to Japan. The government their decided to industrialize, and I think less then 50 years after the start of industrialization (maybe even as little as 25), they had a modern military and were able to defeat Russia. Although amount of time could be off, but I doubt it.

[GePap]

China has immense potential: it is the fourth largest economy in the world today, unless you use PPP porjections and then it is the second largest economy in the world today (India being way, way behind).

Technological progress today takes far less time: China already is a huge porducer of computer tech and a huge market for modern telecom. Even if only the coastal provinces reached SKorea levels, that would mean a huge boost in economic weight.

But all of thsi will only matter if China overcomes several main problems, with corruption in the hinterland and waining central gov. services in education and healthcare for the 800 million peasants. That is where the current Chinese leadership faces the biggest potential political nightmare. I think it will take a strong leadership to solve this, and the current leadership is not that..I think China will face political turmoil in the next 20 year, but after that it will continue to boost ahead.

I don;t think China will break up: the power of the central government is stronger now than it ever was under the emperors and foreign assault higly unlikely, plus a steady strem of nationalism helps to keep most Chinese in line (Even if Tibet broke off, that would only mean loosing about 12 million people out of 1.2 billion). China was the world leader from 1000-1600, and the biggest single economy till 1800. I see no reason why within the next century it will return there.

[Nubclear]

The Economist seems to be reporting China will catch up to us in about eight yearsa....

[Jon Shafer]

If China is still the same in 50 years I will be very surprised and impressed.

What did people think of the USSR in 1960?

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by GePap
But all of thsi will only matter if China overcomes several main problems, with corruption in the hinterland and waining central gov. services in education and healthcare for the 800 million peasants. That is where the current Chinese leadership faces the biggest potential political nightmare.

That's correct. Peasants are the issue. Throughout Chinese history, he who had peasant support became emperor, he who lost peasant support got overthrown. I have always thought that the PRC leaders should abandon the idea of self-sufficency in basic cereals, because that's not the big money maker. They should embrace organic farming. In fact, I think China is perfect for organic farming, which is labour intensive but fetches good $$$ on the international market.

Originally posted by GePap
I don;t think China will break up: the power of the central government is stronger now than it ever was under the emperors and foreign assault higly unlikely, plus a steady strem of nationalism helps to keep most Chinese in line (Even if Tibet broke off, that would only mean loosing about 12 million people out of 1.2 billion).

I don't think so either. The cutural bind is very, very strong. One single spoken langauge (for virtually all the people) and one single written langauge.

[Ned]

China will be a superpower 25 years after the pro-democracy revolution. I think that revoltion will happen within 10 years. So - 35 years.

If the revolution never comes, China's economy will never match that of the United States. When I was a kid, they projected the USSR to catch the US in time. It never happened. Not even close.