How close is China really to becoming a superpower?

[thinkingamer]

I wish that China will regain its former glory and most of all, become democratic (or at least not communist)

[Odd]

Ah... speculation over speculation...

In 50 years the USA will be broke after the majority of it´s citizents decided that money wouldn´t bring happiness and just stopped consuming. Europe banned all imigration and just vanished as it´s last inhabitant, a 192 years old dutch woman, died. It was then transformed into a huge museum controlled by iranians, whose citizents became fans of european culture, building copies of europe´s monuments all over their country. Brazil destroyed all of Amazon and became the proud owner of the largest desert in the world. Tourists of all over the world came to amazon desert to ride in camels and spent at the lavish hotels with an arabic theme.

The true large world superpowers will be Madagascar (their scientists discovered the secrets of cold fusion) and Mongolia (their scientists discovered the secrets of how to lose weight without suffering).

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by Ned
China will be a superpower 25 years after the pro-democracy revolution. I think that revoltion will happen within 10 years. So - 35 years.

That has a much higher chance of botching China into the ground than raising China into heaven.
(The last time China crashed, it took about 100+ years to recover. So yeah - that better not happen again.)

The USSR collapsed because socialist policies ran productivity into the ground. China is not pursuing such policies.

The risks that China do face right now - massive rich-poor gap, unemployment and migrant workers, corruption, etc - wouldn't be solved by a revolution anyway.

Originally posted by thinkingamer
I wish that China will regain its former glory and most of all, become democratic (or at least not communist)

China isn't communist, in all but name.

[thinkingamer]

Originally posted by ranskaldan
China isn't communist, in all but name.

besides economics, in what way is China not communist?

[ranskaldan]

Isn't that the very definition of communist?

If you mean "politically communist" - then that's authoritarianism, not communism.

[Imran Siddiqui]

The last time China crashed, it took about 100+ years to recover.

Yeah, but it had 'help' in that crash .

[thinkingamer]

Originally posted by ranskaldan
Isn't that the very definition of communist?

If you mean "politically communist" - then that's authoritarianism, not communism.

it doesn't matter if it is "politically communist" or authoritarianism; it is the same goverment of the "former pre-capitalist communist government"

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

The last time China crashed, it took about 100+ years to recover.

Yeah, but it had 'help' in that crash .

Yes. And I'm pretty sure that if China crashes again, we will receive help from the same people again.

Thank you, helpers.

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by thinkingamer


it doesn't matter if it is "politically communist" or authoritarianism; it is the same goverment of the "pre-capitalist former communist government"

China isn't "pre-capitalist" - it is a mixed economy, like Canada, or Sweden.

And if we're talking about politics instead of economics, then "communist" isn't even a fitting word. Communism is an economic concept, not a political one. As far as politics are concerned, the USSR, China, Peron's Argentina and Pinochet's Chile are all single-party dictatorships.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

The last time China crashed, it took about 100+ years to recover.

Yeah, but it had 'help' in that crash .

Were you there?

*Puts Imran on hit list*

[GePap]

Originally posted by ranskaldan


China isn't "pre-capitalist" - it is a mixed economy, like Canada, or Sweden.

And if we're talking about politics instead of economics, then "communist" isn't even a fitting word. Communism is an economic concept, not a political one. As far as politics are concerned, the USSR, China, Peron's Argentina and Pinochet's Chile are all single-party dictatorships.

Last time I heard, the party had stopped funding education and healthcare in the boondocks; hardly the Swedish model. China today seems more like a heaven for Good old fashioned Gilded Age capitalism.

[ranskaldan]

Source?

I wouldn't say they've *stopped*. But you're right, funding for education and healthcare are going down the drain, as certain marked recent events tend to show.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Were you there?

I must be pretty old .

--

GePap: 'Guilded Age Capitalism'? What?! How is China anything like that? It is definetly a mixed economy with substantial state interference. It may not be 'Sweden', but it may be even larger and more involved.

[GePap]

The "state interference" is mainly holding up politically connected neterprises form going downt he tubes. I think the most efefctive control is of the banking sector, which again is mainly political in nature.

Sweden is hardly a good comparison. Mexico would be a much better one, specially the Mexico of a few years back. Sweden has this whole "little corruption" thing going on that china lacks.

Source?

None in particular: evry time I see some report about conditions of peasants in the coutnry, i read, or hear, abou local authorities making them pay for education and healthcare: certainly they are no longer free in many areas.

[Carver]

An article in Foreign Affairs about a year ago said that for most of the Cold War the Soviet economy was half the size of the US economy; and if China can raise its standard of living to half that of Japan the Chinese economy will be 2.5 times the US economy. That said, getting to half the per capita income of Japan will be hard. The provinces across from Hong Kong and Taiwain (Guandong and Fujian -sp?) are prosperous, but much of the rest of China is awash in poverty and its hard to see rapid improvement in much of the country.

As someone mentioned, to be a superpower you need a blue water navy and China is just begining to build one. The PLAAF (air force) is still largely dependent on imports. Even with the impresive Chengdu J-10 coming out the Chinese are still buying Russia's Su-30, perhaps lacking confidence in their own plane (or perhaps the planes are to fill very different roles).

Anyway, if all goes well I think they could be the world's second most powerful nation in 20-40 years. When they will be a "superpower" is hard to say, a large blue water navy requires a lot of resources. I say 40 years, best case scenario.