How close is China really to becoming a superpower?

[Kontiki]

I was just about to post this in the uni- or bi-polar world thread, but thought the discussion deserved its own thread....

I get the sense from these forums that there is an over-inflated sense of how important/fast-rising China is on the world stage. As far as I'm concerned, China still has a ways to go to even approach Britain or France in terms of power/influence on the world stage, or Japan or Germany in terms of global economic importance. They may well be the next big thing, but it seems to me that China becoming a really "big-thing" is extremely far into the future.

[Lazerus]

Anybody with nukes has influence, its just china likes to keep pretty quiet so nobody tries telling them to actually read about human rights.
As far as i can remember they're steadily changing their economy and working on reducing population to the extent in about 50years they will seriously challenge the US for top spot.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I agree with Laz. 50 Years and China might be butting heads with the US, especially with their rapid capitalization and strong military power.

[Kontiki]

I dunno if 50 years is realistic. China is woefully behind the US, Britain, France, Japan, Germany and several other European coutries in the amount of foreign investment it has made, it's currency isn't even on the radar screen of global importance, aside from the nukes, it can't project military power anywhere except across its immediate borders, still has to make monumental strides towards having a middle class become the largest segment of its population, and is trying to move forward with a political system that is ultimately at lagerheads with the economic system it's trying to develop.

[Drake Tungsten]

50 years, give or take a decade depending on how effective the US is in maintaining its lead.

This is assuming that China manages to hold itself together. It's a huge and diverse country, so there is a very real chance that it might succumb to internal differences long before it manages to challenge the US.

edit: My 50 years prediction loses a lot of its force when I'm the third one to say it.

[Zkribbler]

It needs a middle class. Until it develops a base of consumers, it will never have an economy worth mentioning.

[Lord_Davinator]

I could take longer... They have a rather weak navy and airforce compared to the US, and it is worthy to point out most of thier naval and air force units are not made in china as almost everything else... hehe

[Imran Siddiqui]

I dunno if 50 years is realistic.

In 1950, Japan was third world country. In 2000 it was an economic power .

Compare 1953 South Korea with 2003 South Korea.

50 years is a long time in modern history .

[Lazerus]

I was actually first to reply and somebody took notice of me ... cool

[Drake Tungsten]

It needs a middle class. Until it develops a base of consumers, it will never have an economy worth mentioning.

I don't know about that. If they want to catch the US, then yes they do need a domestic middle class. However, you can certainly build "an economy worth mentioning" based mostly on exports; just look at the Japanese.

[Drake Tungsten]

In 2000 it was an economic power

You might want to change that date to 1990. The last decade hasn't been kind to the Japanese.

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

I dunno if 50 years is realistic.

In 1950, Japan was third world country. In 2000 it was an economic power .

Compare 1953 South Korea with 2003 South Korea.

50 years is a long time in modern history .

Granted, 50 years is a long time in modern history, but I definitely have to take exception with your examples.

In 1950, Japan was only a third world country because it had just had the living shi*t bombed out of it. During the Meiji restoration, Japan became a significant industrial power, and obviously developed a military quite capable of doing some serious damage on the world stage (without nukes, mind you). It's technological prowess may not have been up to western standards, but it wasn't that far behind.

As for South Korea, it is a better rags-to-riches story, but was done with a much more pro-market form of government than China that employed a fair degree of nationalistic fervor. Still, though SK is relatively prosperous today, it's way behind a number of countries in terms of economic and military importance.

I'm not saying that China isn't moving forward, and at a pretty good clip, just that I think they have a lot further to go than some others think.

[DanS]

In 50 years, India will be a superpower. Not China.

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten

It needs a middle class. Until it develops a base of consumers, it will never have an economy worth mentioning.

I don't know about that. If they want to catch the US, then yes they do need a domestic middle class. However, you can certainly build "an economy worth mentioning" based mostly on exports; just look at the Japanese.

Yeah, but Japan has a huge middle class, and even though it's not quite like the US, there's a good deal of domestic consumption.

[Drake Tungsten]

but was done with a much more pro-market form of government than China that employed a fair degree of nationalistic fervor.

This is exactly what China is trying to do. Nationalism replaced Marxism as the guiding ideology of China years ago.

Still, though SK is relatively prosperous today, it's way behind a number of countries in terms of economic and military importance.

If China can achieve South Korea's level of prosperity, then it will easily surpass every other country in the world save for the US. The sheer size of China greatly augments any improvements it will make in the future.