Turn 76, 1000BC

[Solomwi]

Thanks, Krill. I was more concerned about out-dated combat, and maybe formula typos , rules than anything. The odds window has made me lazy when it comes to figuring out exactly what's happening with the numbers.

Indeed, HM. If we win, I suggest we write up a fitting eulogy for such a worthy opponent (Donegeal the archer, not Vox in general ).

[notyoueither]

     1     O2   2     O3   3    Result
 1  1.8 / 26.6 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 1
 2  0.7 / 99.0 0.0             Win 2
 4  1.8 / 26.6 1.4 / ??.? 1.4  Fail
 5  2.2 / 10.4 0.1 /100.0 0.0  Win 3
 8  2.2 / 10.4 0.0             Win 4
10  2.2 / 10.4 2.2 / 10.4 2.2  Fail
11  1.8 / 26.6 0.9 / 97.0 0.0  Win 5
15  1.8 / 26.6 0.9 / 97.0 0.0  Win 7
17  2.2 / 10.4 0.1 /100.0 0.0  Win 9
18  1.8 / 26.6 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 10
19  1.4 / 80.0 0.5 / 99.9 0.0  Win 11
27  2.2 / 10.4 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 14
32  2.2 / 10.4 1.0 / 96.7 0.0  Win 16
33  1.8 / 26.6 0.0 /           Win 17
34  1.8 / 26.6 1.8 / 26.6 0.0  Win 18
36  1.0 / 89.8 0.0 /           Win 20
39  0.3 /100.0 0.0 /           Win 22
40  0.7 / 99.0 0.0 /           Win 23
45  1.8 / 26.6 0.5 / 99.9 0.0  Win 26
46  1.8 / 26.6 0.0 /100.0 0.0  Win 27 * Strength after 2nd skirmisher 0.08 displays as 0.0
47  2.2 / 10.4 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 28
50  2.2 / 10.4 0.1 /100.0 0.0  Win 29
--
22 attacks where first skirm takes them to 2.2 or less. Win 20, lose 2.

 7  2.6 /  3.2 1.8 / 42.0 1.8  Fail
 9  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 0.5  Fail
12  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 6
13  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.9  Fail
14  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 2.2  Fail
16  2.6 /  3.2 0.0 /           Win 8
21  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 12
22  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 2.6  Fail
23  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 1.4  Fail
24  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 1.8  Fail
28  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 2.2  Fail
30  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 15
31  2.6 /  3.2 1.8 / 42.0 0.4  Fail
37  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 1.8  Fail
41  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 24
42  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 1.4  Fail
43  2.6 /  3.2 0.9 / 97.0 0.0  Win 25
49  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 1.8  Fail
--
18 attacks where first skirm takes them to 2.6. Win 6, lose 12

 3  3.0 /  0.8 3.0 /  0.8 1.8  Fail
 6  3.0 /  0.8 2.6 /  3.2 1.8  Fail
20  3.0 /  0.8 1.8 / 26.6 1.8  Fail
25  3.0 /  0.8 0.7 / 99.0 0.0  Win 13
26  3.0 /  0.8 2.6 /  3.2 2.2  Fail
29  3.0 /  0.8 3.0 /  0.8 2.6  Fail
35  3.0 /  0.8 1.4 / 80.0 0.0  Win 19
38  3.0 /  0.8 2.2 / 10.4 1.0  Win 21
44  3.0 /  0.8 2.6 /  3.2 2.2  Fail
48  3.0 /  0.8 3.0 /  0.8 2.6  Fail
--
10 attacks where first attack bounces. Win 3, lose 7

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by notyoueither

   Odds for 1st skirm attack are 0.08
 1 Strength after 1st skirm attacks
O2 Odds for second attack
 2 Strength after 2nd attack
O3 Odds for 3rd attack
 3 Strength after 2nd attack

     1     O2   2     O3   3    Result
 1  1.8 / 26.6 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 1
 2  0.7 / 99.0 0.0             Win 2
 3  3.0 /  0.8 3.0 /  0.8 1.8  Fail
 4  1.8 / 26.6 1.4 / ??.? 1.4  Fail
 5  2.2 / 10.4 0.1 /100.0 0.0  Win 3
 6  3.0 /  0.8 2.6 /  3.2 1.8  Fail
 7  2.6 /  3.2 1.8 / 42.0 1.8  Fail
[b] 8  2.2 / 10.4 0.0             Win 4[/b]
 9  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 0.5  Fail
10  2.2 / 10.4 2.2 / 10.4 2.2  Fail
11  1.8 / 26.6 0.9 / 97.0 0.0  Win 5
12  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 6
[b]13  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.9  Fail[/b]
14  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 2.2  Fail
15  1.8 / 26.6 0.9 / 97.0 0.0  Win 7
[b]16  2.6 /  3.2 0.0 /           Win 8[/b]
17  2.2 / 10.4 0.1 /100.0 0.0  Win 9
18  1.8 / 26.6 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 10
19  1.4 / 80.0 0.5 / 99.9 0.0  Win 11
20  3.0 /  0.8 1.8 / 26.6 1.8  Fail
21  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 12
22  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 2.6  Fail
23  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 1.4  Fail
24  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 1.8  Fail
25  3.0 /  0.8 0.7 / 99.0 0.0  Win 13
26  3.0 /  0.8 2.6 /  3.2 2.2  Fail
27  2.2 / 10.4 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 14
28  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 2.2  Fail
29  3.0 /  0.8 3.0 /  0.8 2.6  Fail
30  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 15
31  2.6 /  3.2 1.8 / 42.0 0.4  Fail
32  2.2 / 10.4 1.0 / 96.7 0.0  Win 16
[b]33  1.8 / 26.6 0.0 /           Win 17[/b]
[b]34  1.8 / 26.6 1.8 / 26.6 0.0  Win 18[/b]
35  3.0 /  0.8 1.4 / 80.0 0.0  Win 19
36  1.0 / 89.8 0.0 /           Win 20
37  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 1.8  Fail
[b]38  3.0 /  0.8 2.2 / 10.4 1.0  Win 21[/b]
39  0.3 /100.0 0.0 /           Win 22
40  0.7 / 99.0 0.0 /           Win 23
41  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 24
42  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 1.4  Fail
43  2.6 /  3.2 0.9 / 97.0 0.0  Win 25
44  3.0 /  0.8 2.6 /  3.2 2.2  Fail
45  1.8 / 26.6 0.5 / 99.9 0.0  Win 26
46  1.8 / 26.6 0.0 /100.0 0.0  Win 27 * Strength after 2nd skirmisher 0.08 displays as 0.0
47  2.2 / 10.4 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 28
48  3.0 /  0.8 3.0 /  0.8 2.6  Fail
49  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 1.8  Fail
50  2.2 / 10.4 0.1 /100.0 0.0  Win 29

Bolded ones look like luck to me - and more Wins on luck than Failures on bad luck - I would take those out of the equation.

Regardless, unless there's someway to see this as less than a 50/50 shot...

[Krill]

wait a mo...I think Solomwis odds don;t take into account the freestrike on the second and third skirms...

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Krill
nye, I seriously disagree that if we lose 3 skirms attacking that we are not screwed. Vox simply don't have the units or tech to stop us running them over.

They would be in a position to dleay our attack significantly. Our 3 skirms are doing more than depriving them of 3 tiles. They are keeping them from sending 2 or 3 more archers over to us as well as slowing any improvements they may like to make to their land.

So they would have, basically, a number of archers that can't approach us because they'll die due to sheer lack of odds unlike us, no cities but one settler, no tile improvements...and 20 turns before we have cats they'll have to mount a defense against units that deal collateral damage and will knock down their cultural defense.

They have not a hope in hell even if we lose the choke, because the choke has already achieved it's aim.

They will have more units to harrass us with, on top of barb time should be on us very soon. With some bad luck we lose a city.

In any event, it will cost us more time to tke them out.

What we are discussing is what do we gain (time) vs what do we lose (time). Is the time gained worth the time lost?

As a footnote, if they parlay a victory into changes diplomatically we could be setback a great deal more.

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by notyoueither
18 attacks where first skirm takes them to 2.6. Win 6, lose 12

That does appear to be a telling breaking point.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Hot Mustard


Bolded ones look like luck to me - and more Wins on luck than Failures on bad luck - I would take those out of the equation.

Regardless, unless there's someway to see this as less than a 50/50 shot...

I think it's all luck.

If you take out the two shots to win results, you should also take out the 2 shots don't make a dent.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Hot Mustard


That does appear to be a telling breaking point.

Yes, but I'd still think about risking it if Blake or someone else can convince me that winning 40 turns earlier has a substantial impact on our chances of winning the game.

[Krill]

If they want to send 2 or more archers then let them. It is not like they are using them for anything else right now. By the time they got those 2 or 3 archers next to our land then we will have a futher 2 axes in addition to a possible skirm from WS as it will have slaved the granary by then. I would love to see all of the Voxian archers save Donegeal kill axes and Skirms in WS.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Krill
If they want to send 2 or more archers then let them. It is not like they are using them for anything else right now. By the time they got those 2 or 3 archers next to our land then we will have a futher 2 axes in addition to a possible skirm from WS as it will have slaved the granary by then. I would love to see all of the Voxian archers save Donegeal kill axes and Skirms in WS.

There's also diplomacy, Krill. This isn't online MP.

[notyoueither]

Oh. The save with 3 skirms ready to attack a fort 25% 2xCD archer in cap with lots of culture.

[Hot Mustard]

Originally posted by notyoueither

39  0.3 /100.0 0.0 /           Win 22

This is the one I'm praying to the RNG God for!

[notyoueither]

I bought some M&Ms and have been munching...

[Krill]

Ok, if we kill Vox this turn this is what we get:

1. Size 3 city that will have autoexpanded borders.
2. Free worker
3. Free happiness and health allowing eots to grow to size 6 and still be productive
4. Ability to slave out settlers in an economical fashion, ie working cottaged fp to provide gold.
5. Able to research monarchy for extra happiness before construction (this is a biggie, we can grow eots to work every cottaged flood plain within sight tile)
6. Can use units to barb hunt
7. Can settle all of our cities alot earlier so we get way ahead of the curve.

[Solomwi]

Originally posted by Krill
wait a mo...I think Solomwis odds don;t take into account the freestrike on the second and third skirms...

You're absolutely right, and I did it that way for a couple of reasons.

1. Quantifying them didn't really fit into the way I structured it, or what I was trying to look at with it, which is the individual round and how many rounds we need to kill it.

2. As I understand it, worst case scenario is that our first strikes cancel, and we go right into straight battle. Middle scenario is that we get one first strike chance and miss. Best case scenario is that we get one first strike chance and hit. Two of those scenarios don't really affect the outcome, and the third affects it in our favor. For our purposes here, looking at the scenarios where it's not a factor is more useful, because if we should attack again without the first strike considered, we certainly should attack again with it.

3. We can incorporate the first strike possibilities later in the discussion, or when proceeding with the turn. Before that, though, it's more useful to have a foundation of when we may and may not want to press the attack. The first strike may well influence a borderline decision toward attack, but won't influence a non-borderline decision, and won't influence a borderline decision toward stopping.