Turn 76, 1000BC

[Velociryx]

Wow.

And thanks to Krill for pointing me in this direction again.

Absofrigginlutely attack.

I've been itching to attack sans cats the whole game, and if they're gonna HAND US a perfect opportunity to do so, I think we'd be foolish to ignore it.

The downside is, we don't get to hurt them further for a while (our chokers are gone, but as Arrian pointed out, we've already hurt them, and perhaps even crippled them).

The upside is, we gain a new (excellent) city site, and are firmly in the driver's seat on this continent.

All that for the price of a couple of skirmishers? Oh hail yes, attack!

-=Vel=-

Hands down, the most important turn of the game for us.

[Master Zen]

I was woken up from my eternal sleep in the etheral void...

KILL THEM!

[Blake]

On what exactly Vox are smoking...

I think it may actually be most likely just an error on their part... "The incompetence of Vox knows no bounds". They might for instance believe that they can take The Voice back if it falls. Or they might not be paying attention.

The other reasonable possibility is the one others have mentioned - the Gamble. Vox have concluded that we are going to exterminate them and it's been long enough that they have clued onto our strategy - the insulting thing is, we've pretty much entirely marginalized Vox, to the point where they are such a low threat that we don't even bother with a credible visible defense. They have realized that we are blissfully building away "in peace", that they are unable to hurt us in any way, unable to even force our hand to deal with them, we can just leave them to rot until we're good and ready to attack.

It is possible that seeing the Axeman was the final coffin in the Vox "resistance" movement, because the Axeman means their intruding archers are nothing more than a 98% win for us (And 60%+ even when the archer is on defensive terrain). They literally can't even touch us, and they realize that. They realize that we have them in a death-choke and it's not even costing us more than a token investment in units/upkeeps.
So they have concluded that our strategy is to build blissfully while ignoring them until we have the means (catapults) to take them out without undue harm to our development.

What's even worse, is that (at least it seems), we've successfully poisoned the rest of the continent with anti-Voxism, we don't know quite what their diplomacy is like, but Banana is probably like "Eh... we're sorry about your predicament but we can't help *cough military graph*" and AC, if they can resist just laughing in Vox's face, probably point out that Vox is just too weakened to contribute to the game in any meaningful way, and in any case it's not worth souring relationships with GS to render assistance (even if Vox did have something to bargain with). So Vox's pleas for help are met with something between apathy and scorn, pity if they're lucky. Asides from the fact that it means they can't get help to save their capital, it also makes for an unfriendly environment for refugee cities since the other teams will have little compunction about declaring war and taking/razing the city (or giving GS free pass to do so)... at worst they'll feel a little sorry for Vox as they eliminate them, but there's no shameful backstab or deceit involved.

Vox want to hurt us and slow us down, they really do. They were probably hoping we'd mobilize for axe war and hurt our economy that way, but now they see we aren't going to harm ourselves. Every turn which passes Vox gets more and more marginalized, as we gain access to stronger units which further marginalize Vox's puny archer army, and our industrial might grows which means we can increasingly shrug off unit losses. And Vox are unable to effect this in any way, as long as the deathchoke is maintained they are stagnant.

Their position is damn hopeless, they are damned. They figure that they have a decent shot at getting us to suicide 3 of our units, which will probably inflict similar damages upon us as throwing away 3 catapults later. And on the flipside, a cleaner and slightly more dignified death than their bastion being bombarded down with catapults followed by an extermination campaign possibly involving a 3rd party who they tried to seek refuge with.

I'm not sure if it's the move I would make in Vox's position, but Vox's position is one born from a string of mistakes which I would not have made (the first mistake being disrespecting the requests of a powerful neighbor, resulting in a war that couldn't help but be punishing at best and unwinnable at worst). That's the main reason why I say that a simple (or grand) mistake is also a plausible explanation.

[Krill]

Originally posted by Blake
On what exactly Vox are smoking...

I think it may actually be most likely just an error on their part... "The incompetence of Vox knows no bounds". They might for instance believe that they can take The Voice back if it falls. Or they might not be paying attention.

The other reasonable possibility is the one others have mentioned - the Gamble. Vox have concluded that we are going to exterminate them and it's been long enough that they have clued onto our strategy - the insulting thing is, we've pretty much entirely marginalized Vox, to the point where they are such a low threat that we don't even bother with a credible visible defense. They have realized that we are blissfully building away "in peace", that they are unable to hurt us in any way, unable to even force our hand to deal with them, we can just leave them to rot until we're good and ready to attack.

It is possible that seeing the Axeman was the final coffin in the Vox "resistance" movement, because the Axeman means their intruding archers are nothing more than a 98% win for us (And 60%+ even when the archer is on defensive terrain). They literally can't even touch us, and they realize that. They realize that we have them in a death-choke and it's not even costing us more than a token investment in units/upkeeps.
So they have concluded that our strategy is to build blissfully while ignoring them until we have the means (catapults) to take them out without undue harm to our development.

What's even worse, is that (at least it seems), we've successfully poisoned the rest of the continent with anti-Voxism, we don't know quite what their diplomacy is like, but Banana is probably like "Eh... we're sorry about your predicament but we can't help *cough military graph*" and AC, if they can resist just laughing in Vox's face, probably point out that Vox is just too weakened to contribute to the game in any meaningful way, and in any case it's not worth souring relationships with GS to render assistance (even if Vox did have something to bargain with). So Vox's pleas for help are met with something between apathy and scorn, pity if they're lucky. Asides from the fact that it means they can't get help to save their capital, it also makes for an unfriendly environment for refugee cities since the other teams will have little compunction about declaring war and taking/razing the city (or giving GS free pass to do so)... at worst they'll feel a little sorry for Vox as they eliminate them, but there's no shameful backstab or deceit involved.

Vox want to hurt us and slow us down, they really do. They were probably hoping we'd mobilize for axe war and hurt our economy that way, but now they see we aren't going to harm ourselves. Every turn which passes Vox gets more and more marginalized, as we gain access to stronger units which further marginalize Vox's puny archer army, and our industrial might grows which means we can increasingly shrug off unit losses. And Vox are unable to effect this in any way, as long as the deathchoke is maintained they are stagnant.

Their position is damn hopeless, they are damned. They figure that they have a decent shot at getting us to suicide 3 of our units, which will probably inflict similar damages upon us as throwing away 3 catapults later. And on the flipside, a cleaner and slightly more dignified death than their bastion being bombarded down with catapults followed by an extermination campaign possibly involving a 3rd party who they tried to seek refuge with.

I'm not sure if it's the move I would make in Vox's position, but Vox's position is one born from a string of mistakes which I would not have made (the first mistake being disrespecting the requests of a powerful neighbor, resulting in a war that couldn't help but be punishing at best and unwinnable at worst). That's the main reason why I say that a simple (or grand) mistake is also a plausible explanation.

So a job well done then?

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Krill
It's Kinda hard to sim it with 3 skirms. Probably easier to convert the code DeepO made for the combat calc to work for stack combat. All you would have to do is recalculate the effective strenght and hitpoints of the archer after 100 hp of skirm have been destroyed.

We do hard things...

I've done 50 runs. Seems to break about 50-50. Will post numbers soonish.

[Krill]

On a more sincere note...Vox might have been able to do better if they had gone straight for BW instead of a religion; not only would that have given them the ability to slave it would have shown them that they needed IW. And getting a worker out soonish could have given them some much needed hammers from chopping.

[Krill]

nye, also it is best to note what hp the voxian archer is at after the first 2 skirms have attacked, and then whether we win the final fight or not.

[Hot Mustard]

Just thought of something - whether or not we win - that lone Archer named after Donegal should go down in Diplogame history - right up there with Grog.

[Solomwi]

Originally posted by Hot Mustard
Seems like we'll need continue-or-stop numbers for each unit.

So...

What % odds (or health remaining for the archer) should we continue at with the second Skirmisher?

What % odds(or health remaining for the archer)should we continue at with the third Skirmisher?


Also, I agree with Krill that Beckham (on cow tile) should go first, since he is on the least-defensible tile. Does it matter what order the other two go in?

, nothing wakes us up like a shot at the jugular.

Since it's looking less and less likely that we're going to get much opposition to attacking, I think we need to turn at least some focus to HM's nuts and bolts question here.

The following is based on my understanding of combat mechanics, which may be woefully off-base (I'm averaging actual and full strength for the damage component only, is that the current setup?):

First attack
We start out at a 0.476 ratio (expressed from our perspective, obviously), inflicting 13 damage per hit. Odds to win a round are 32.2%, and the archer will start off inflicting 28 damage, thus needing 4 successful rounds to win. Our winning two rounds doesn't seem to be a very big reach in this situation, especially considering our potential first strike, but obviously not something we can count on, either.

Second attack
87 HP Archer:
Round odds = 35.4%
R = 0.547
Skirm damage = 14 (7 rounds)
Archer damage = 27 (4 rounds)
74 HP Archer:
Round odds = 39.2%
R = 0.644
Skirm damage = 14 (6 rounds)
Archer damage = 26 (4 rounds)

61 HP Archer:
Round odds = 43.8%
R = 0.781
Skirm damage = 15 (5 rounds)
Archer damage = 25 (4 rounds)
Obviously, more than three rounds in the first attack would be a great signal to continue, so I'll stop here for purposes of the second attack.

Final attack
Note that the above scenarios from an HP standpoint are possible here, but the numbers would be redundant, so I've omitted them.

73 HP Archer (1 round in the first attack and 1 in the second):
Round odds = 39.5%
R = 0.652
Skirm damage = 14 (5 rounds)
Archer damage = 26 (4 rounds)

60 HP Archer (2, 1):
Round odds = 44.2%
R = 0.794
Skirm damage = 15 (4 rounds)
Archer damage = 25 (4 rounds)

59 HP Archer (1, 2):
Round odds = 44.7%
R = 0.807
Skirm damage = 15 (4 rounds)
Archer damage = 25 (4 rounds)

46 HP Archer (2, 2 or 3, 1):
Round odds = 50.9%
R = 1.035
Skirm damage = 16 (3 rounds)
Archer damage = 24 (5 rounds)

45 HP Archer (1, 3):
Round odds = 51.4%
R = 1.058
Skirm damage = 16 (3 rounds)
Archer damage = 24 (5 rounds)

32 HP Archer (2, 3):
Round odds = 59.8%
R = 1.488
Skirm damage = 17 (2 rounds)
Archer damage = 23 (5 rounds)
I think anything beyond this point is a no-brainer.

I've attached the spreadsheet I put together for this. It's nothing fancy, but the formulas should be right. Just enter the number of rounds we win in the yellow boxes to create a scenario. If anybody sees a mistake, please let me know. I've just used 4 for all of our modified strength entries and 2.8 for their base modifier, but it could be easily tailored for to encompass most, if not all, situations if we wanted to use it in the future. I've also not factored in the potential first strike we have (again, if I'm understanding first strikes correctly), since it doesn't hurt us in any case.

[Solomwi]

Originally posted by Blake
On what exactly Vox are smoking...

I think it may actually be most likely just an error on their part... "The incompetence of Vox knows no bounds". They might for instance believe that they can take The Voice back if it falls. Or they might not be paying attention.

The other reasonable possibility is the one others have mentioned - the Gamble. Vox have concluded that we are going to exterminate them and it's been long enough that they have clued onto our strategy - the insulting thing is, we've pretty much entirely marginalized Vox, to the point where they are such a low threat that we don't even bother with a credible visible defense. They have realized that we are blissfully building away "in peace", that they are unable to hurt us in any way, unable to even force our hand to deal with them, we can just leave them to rot until we're good and ready to attack.

It is possible that seeing the Axeman was the final coffin in the Vox "resistance" movement, because the Axeman means their intruding archers are nothing more than a 98% win for us (And 60%+ even when the archer is on defensive terrain). They literally can't even touch us, and they realize that. They realize that we have them in a death-choke and it's not even costing us more than a token investment in units/upkeeps.
So they have concluded that our strategy is to build blissfully while ignoring them until we have the means (catapults) to take them out without undue harm to our development.

What's even worse, is that (at least it seems), we've successfully poisoned the rest of the continent with anti-Voxism, we don't know quite what their diplomacy is like, but Banana is probably like "Eh... we're sorry about your predicament but we can't help *cough military graph*" and AC, if they can resist just laughing in Vox's face, probably point out that Vox is just too weakened to contribute to the game in any meaningful way, and in any case it's not worth souring relationships with GS to render assistance (even if Vox did have something to bargain with). So Vox's pleas for help are met with something between apathy and scorn, pity if they're lucky. Asides from the fact that it means they can't get help to save their capital, it also makes for an unfriendly environment for refugee cities since the other teams will have little compunction about declaring war and taking/razing the city (or giving GS free pass to do so)... at worst they'll feel a little sorry for Vox as they eliminate them, but there's no shameful backstab or deceit involved.

Vox want to hurt us and slow us down, they really do. They were probably hoping we'd mobilize for axe war and hurt our economy that way, but now they see we aren't going to harm ourselves. Every turn which passes Vox gets more and more marginalized, as we gain access to stronger units which further marginalize Vox's puny archer army, and our industrial might grows which means we can increasingly shrug off unit losses. And Vox are unable to effect this in any way, as long as the deathchoke is maintained they are stagnant.

Their position is damn hopeless, they are damned. They figure that they have a decent shot at getting us to suicide 3 of our units, which will probably inflict similar damages upon us as throwing away 3 catapults later. And on the flipside, a cleaner and slightly more dignified death than their bastion being bombarded down with catapults followed by an extermination campaign possibly involving a 3rd party who they tried to seek refuge with.

I'm not sure if it's the move I would make in Vox's position, but Vox's position is one born from a string of mistakes which I would not have made (the first mistake being disrespecting the requests of a powerful neighbor, resulting in a war that couldn't help but be punishing at best and unwinnable at worst). That's the main reason why I say that a simple (or grand) mistake is also a plausible explanation.

I think you just nailed it from every angle. Absent a third possibility, neither of these reasons on their end cause me any concern.

[notyoueither]

Sorry. More like 60-40

   Odds for 1st skirm attack are 0.08
 1 Strength after 1st skirm attacks
O2 Odds for second attack
 2 Strength after 2nd attack
O3 Odds for 3rd attack
 3 Strength after 2nd attack

     1     O2   2     O3   3    Result
 1  1.8 / 26.6 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 1
 2  0.7 / 99.0 0.0             Win 2
 3  3.0 /  0.8 3.0 /  0.8 1.8  Fail
 4  1.8 / 26.6 1.4 / ??.? 1.4  Fail
 5  2.2 / 10.4 0.1 /100.0 0.0  Win 3
 6  3.0 /  0.8 2.6 /  3.2 1.8  Fail
 7  2.6 /  3.2 1.8 / 42.0 1.8  Fail
 8  2.2 / 10.4 0.0             Win 4
 9  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 0.5  Fail
10  2.2 / 10.4 2.2 / 10.4 2.2  Fail
11  1.8 / 26.6 0.9 / 97.0 0.0  Win 5
12  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 6
13  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.9  Fail
14  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 2.2  Fail
15  1.8 / 26.6 0.9 / 97.0 0.0  Win 7
16  2.6 /  3.2 0.0 /           Win 8
17  2.2 / 10.4 0.1 /100.0 0.0  Win 9
18  1.8 / 26.6 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 10
19  1.4 / 80.0 0.5 / 99.9 0.0  Win 11
20  3.0 /  0.8 1.8 / 26.6 1.8  Fail
21  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 12
22  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 2.6  Fail
23  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 1.4  Fail
24  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 1.8  Fail
25  3.0 /  0.8 0.7 / 99.0 0.0  Win 13
26  3.0 /  0.8 2.6 /  3.2 2.2  Fail
27  2.2 / 10.4 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 14
28  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 2.2  Fail
29  3.0 /  0.8 3.0 /  0.8 2.6  Fail
30  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 15
31  2.6 /  3.2 1.8 / 42.0 0.4  Fail
32  2.2 / 10.4 1.0 / 96.7 0.0  Win 16
33  1.8 / 26.6 0.0 /           Win 17
34  1.8 / 26.6 1.8 / 26.6 0.0  Win 18
35  3.0 /  0.8 1.4 / 80.0 0.0  Win 19
36  1.0 / 89.8 0.0 /           Win 20
37  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 1.8  Fail
38  3.0 /  0.8 2.2 / 10.4 1.0  Win 21
39  0.3 /100.0 0.0 /           Win 22
40  0.7 / 99.0 0.0 /           Win 23
41  2.6 /  3.2 1.4 / 82.3 0.0  Win 24
42  2.6 /  3.2 2.6 /  3.2 1.4  Fail
43  2.6 /  3.2 0.9 / 97.0 0.0  Win 25
44  3.0 /  0.8 2.6 /  3.2 2.2  Fail
45  1.8 / 26.6 0.5 / 99.9 0.0  Win 26
46  1.8 / 26.6 0.0 /100.0 0.0  Win 27 * Strength after 2nd skirmisher 0.08 displays as 0.0
47  2.2 / 10.4 1.4 / 81.4 0.0  Win 28
48  3.0 /  0.8 3.0 /  0.8 2.6  Fail
49  2.6 /  3.2 2.2 / 10.7 1.8  Fail
50  2.2 / 10.4 0.1 /100.0 0.0  Win 29

It looks pretty streaky.

Hmm. 58% chance of winning.

If we win, we are way ahead of everyone and already have very good relations with another leader and so-so with a runt. If we win and keep ACen friendly our chances of winning the game are substantially increased.

If we lose, we lose the choke and give the numerical advantage over to Vox. They could use that to set our attack plans back a great deal. Additionally, they would be free to improve their land. Finally, they could approach our neighbours and say 'hey, who's winning now? Care to make some foreign policy adjustments?'

Hmm...

I say attack with the first skirm (the unforted one). If we drop them to 2.2 or less, go with the second. If we drop them to 1.4 or less, go in with the third. Any result that falls short of that should be discussed back here.

[Krill]

Solomwi, your values checkout for me, but I'll be the first person to say my skills in excel (and stats in general) suck.

[Krill]

nye, I seriously disagree that if we lose 3 skirms attacking that we are not screwed. Vox simply don't have the units or tech to stop us running them over.

So they would have, basically, a number of archers that can't approach us because they'll die due to sheer lack of odds unlike us, no cities but one settler, no tile improvements...and 20 turns before we have cats they'll have to mount a defense against units that deal collateral damage and will knock down their cultural defense.

They have not a hope in hell even if we lose the choke, because the choke has already achieved it's aim.

[Krill]

Basically what I'm saying is attack with the second skirm if the first hits even once.

[Krill]

Damn, we could really do with being in mIRC right now...