None of NYE's sims at or below 42% for the third attack resulted in a Win.
edit: nevermind, I misunderstood.
Anyway, the only thing that matters now is that we have a 42% chance of success. That's still a decent chance of success, and success would be HUGE. Failure, at this point, means we lose one more skirmisher. Proceed with the attack!
-Arrian
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