Gathering Storm - correspondence & foreign affairs

[Kloreep]

I agree with redstar here. This seems like a good opportunity to state we also want good relations and perhaps closer ties in the long-term, so long as this war is concluded.

I'm not so sure about trying to convince GoW+ND to let GS on Bob. Might be an idea, but they rightly wouldn't want to concede much.

GS seems to be on the brink of realizing this war is now futile. This is probably a good thing, before they weaken their forces too much to defend Stormia; though it would be nice for GoW and ND to struggle a little longer while we build.

[redstar1]

I'm not suggesting we really try and convince GOW and ND, merely suggest it in the interests of long term GS relations. Maybe they will go for it, who knows...

[vondrack]

FYI, I breifly acknowledged the receipt of the PM:

Cort Haus,

Just briefly acknowledging the receipt of your thorough PM. I have posted it in our forum - we will respond in detail, addressing the issues raised, but it will take us some time to put the response together.

Sorry for not answering your previous PM - we were waiting for GoW to talk to you first. It would have been rather unacceptable to inform you about their decision, which we knew, before they'd tell you officially.

Regards,
vondrack

I will add my comments later today (still need to do something here). Basically, I agree this is a golden opportunity to improve our relations with GS, preparing for the post-war era.

I am thinking of being very friendly and honest with them. But I need some time to think this over...

[vondrack]

Alright, sorry for not posting yesterday... Karina is sick and I had to do some late night shopping, to prevent starvation here. Shuffling around about 25kg of stuff made me a bit tired, longing for bed.

First:

As much as I appreciate the calm, quite honest tone of the GS message, let's not fool ourselves - it is still GS. They are the best players around, at least as far as the "in-game" is concerned - they demonstrated it more than enough by their uberbuild-up in the early phase of the game. If they are improving their diplomacy, they only get more dangerous. Let's not fall in love with them just because of one skillfully crafted diplo note.

That said, I completely agree that this is the golden opportunity to make GS understand our position, our reasons, to make them realize theirs - and to ensure that once this war is over, they will become our allies or at least not our (hidden) enemies, helping us to balance the power of GoW-ND Bob, rather than happily watching whatever troubles we may later get into, thinking "cool, now they get what they deserve, them Lego bastards", not helping us out a smallest bit (once we go through our GA, I would be fairly confident we would be able to defend against the united GoW and ND on our own, if necessary, but I would still prefer having more than just Vox as allies).

Now, before we start thinking about what to respond and how... let's sort out our short-, mid-, and long- term objectives (sorted in the order of significance).

1) we do not want to expand beyond Legos

...read: we want to win the game peacefully (spaceship or UN), not via domination. We don't intend to take any more land than we currently have on Legos and we'd prefer not being forced to (responding to another team taking too much land themselves).

This actually implies...

2) we want Bob split between GoW & ND; no GS presence, RP presence acceptable

The reasoning is still the same. If GS was to gain land on Bob, we would have to constantly fear their attempt to overtake the rest of it. GS knows, just like we know, that even after "establishing a production centre on Bob", they'd have no chance to win the game without further expansion. We'd still be much more powerful economically - actually, even more than if they did not get any land on Bob (because with our power the same, our top competitors, GoW & ND, would be weakened, while GS would still not make it into the first league).

3) we want GS on our side once the war is over

This is very important, as facing the united Bob with just Voxes by our side could easily get ugly. We need to do our best to ensure that GS holds no grudges against us (at least no "personal" grudges) and will not spitefully refuse to cooperate just to see us "get into troubles, too".

4) we do not want GoW & ND to turn against us

Speaking post-war, of course. As much as there is nothing we can do in case they simply decide to keep warring, just with a new target, we should make sure we do not give them any reason to turn against us. We want them to enter a long buildup phase after the war is over, because we are fairly confident we will be able to outbuild them.

5) we prefer this war to continue, albeit on a limited scale

Let's just keep that in mind... the longer this war consumes resources of GoW, ND, and GS (and RP), the better for us, the bigger our lead grows and the safer we are on our road to GA.

So much for our goal summary. Ideas on our response to GS to follow in the next post.

[vondrack]

Now, let's do another quick summary, this time of the possible resolutions to the situation we have here. I am including only solutions that are "reasonable" or likely - I am not going to consider things like "we backstab GoW and/or ND" or "everybody makes peace with each other and Lego gets ganged upon immediately". Again, the options are sorted, this time according to how much we'd like them:

1) GS continues the war on a limited scale, in the South of Bob only

This is obviously the best "solution" for us - as it is no solution at all, actually. All our competitors waste their resources in a prolonged war, while we happily sit aside, watching the bloodfest, preparing for our GA, just making sure things go the way of ours. At the end of the day, GoW and ND prevail, GS and RP are off Bob - but not soon and only after GoW, ND, and GS waste a lot of resources. Hopefully no or little impact on our post-war relations with GS. However, as this is so obviously helping us, while harming others, I can see little chance this will happen.

2) GS admits the defeat and withdraws from Bob

RP falls within few turns (or flees to Northern Stormia), the war is over, victorious Bobian powers (re)split Bob and start building. This is not a bad resolution and we could live up with that, even though it would certainly minimize our (relative) gains. The worst case scenario would be GoW and ND turning against us immediately... but I am fairly confident we'd be able to defend against them even if they decided to attack us very soon. Let's not forget that if they fight us, their economy will be as hampered as ours (and with their GA ending soon, their combined economy power will only about match ours, as we match any of their GA economies with our non-GA economy).

3) GS carries out a desperate all-out attack

This draws us into the war. Our LEF units get to fight (and we probably lose them sooner or later). We have to commit more resources to the war, but others would have to, too. Eventually, things end up as if GS quitted now, but later and with major losses on all sides. The most significant drawback of this resolution, though, is its later impact on our relations with GS. They would surely be worse than if never fighting them. Economically, this option is not that bad for us... while we would have to devote some of our potential to the war, we would still be gaining on other teams relatively, because their commitments would be far bigger than ours (the war is being fought on their soil and they are the primary warring parties). Our safety would be almost guaranteed (unlike if other teams possess significant forces able to attack Legos).


Conclusion:

1) we should do our best to prevent GS from attacking GoW/ND homelands (if they haven't attacked them yet, that is), since the only thing we really do not want is to fight GS, because of the inevitable hit to our post-war relations.

2) we should do nothing to weaken the chance of the prolonged war happening. No mediating, no helping any peace talks - if others want to make peace and minimize their relative losses (against us), they will have to do it on their own. The longer they haggle over ending the war, the longer they negotiate, the more time they lose in the uncertainty of war... the better for us. However, I'd be wary of actively doing anything to help the war continue, as any efforts in this direction would quite likely backfire at us, sooner or later. If others are unreasonable enough to let us gain on them, cool. If things go this way on their own, great. But I would rather not push things ourselves, as that is a sure way to annoy others (we would easily be seen in the same light RP was).


Bear with me, I am getting to the response ideas finally...

[vondrack]

Considering all what I have mentioned in the previous two posts, I would suggest the following:

1. make sure GS understands our motives

Let's start with filling in the "hole" GS (intentionally, I believe) left in their global geopolitic analysis. They, quite understandably, did not mention that even if they did gain a modest amount of land on Bob, they would still be in no position to win the game peacefully. Their own analysis makes it clear: we/Lego would have ~400 tiles. GoW & ND, say, ~300 tiles each, and GS 200+100=300 tiles as well. Assuming only peaceful competition, they'd only make our situation easier, while not improving their own enough. And if they gained more than ~100 tiles? Well, than they would become a direct (peaceful) threat to us, which would naturally not not be in our best interest.

Such a situation would inevitably lead to GS having to attempt to gain more land on Bob than we would like, making them a constant threat to our long term goals, especially considering their past military triumph over the strong Vox immortal army (we may clearly state we have no intention to expand beyond Legos and we want to avoid having to). OTOH, having Bob split between GoW & ND would put these two teams slightly behind us in terms of the raw economy potential (not mentioning the huge cost of getting to that position in the first place) - giving us a good shot at winning the game through a peaceful build-out.

That was our reasoning when the war broke out and GS entered the stage and that was what made us pick our side, agreeing to support GoW & ND in their efforts to drive RP & GS off Bob. We should explain we were afraid of GoW and ND was not strong enough to resist the power of GS and RP combined (and we may even drop a word or two about that the situation might very well be quite different now if we did not ally with them - I feel this is quite true), so we allied with them, agreeing to the common goal, which now limits our manoeuvring space, unless we would be ready to basically betray our allies (not mentioning the fact that a betrayal like that would contradict our long term plans). I would mention we have reasons to believe that GoW and ND will not be direct (military) threats to us once the war is over - not in short/mid term.

2. make sure GS understands the extent of our involvement

I would also mention that despite being allied to GoW and ND, we do not consider ourselves waging war on RP. That despite cooperating with GoW and ND (against GS, for the above-mentioned reasons), we have made it clear even to our allies we would not directly fight RP or help with their destruction - partially because of the NAP treaty we still honour, even if in a certain way only (we had no chance to join the war against GS without de facto joining the war against RP, but that's all), and not the least because our selfish interests are not served best by a short, decisive war. I would mention this so that GS at least considers fighting on in the South. Faint hope, but worth giving a shot, I think. Besides, it may make us look good or trustworthy, sort of... by, ummm, "honouring" the treaty RPers have undoubtedly mentioned to GS (and we all know how much emphasis GS puts on these things).

I would, just by the way, mention that if they are able to reach an agreement with GoW, ND, and RP regarding the future split of Bob, we will not interfere. I would do it in order to encourage GS to try securing a piece of Bobian land for RP as part of the eventual peace treaty, perhaps by fighting in the South few more turns, making GoW & ND more willing to negotiate peace based on a partial compromise (I believe if RP is to survive, we would be better off with them left with a small piece of Bob, rather than exiled on Northern Stormia - less land for GoW/ND, more land for GS). I believe it's safe to leave this in the hands of GoW & ND, as they will never agree to any territorial concessions to GS - which is the only thing that matters, from our PoV.

3. make sure GS knows our "hostility" towards them does not go beyond Bob

After clearly explaining our reasons to want GS off Bob, I would proceed to making it crystal clear that once the last unit of GS leaves Bob, there is nothing standing between us and them, especially if we never get to fight each other - just the contrary. That the last thing we are interested in is their total destruction. That we'll be happy to cooperate with them, keeping them on par with other teams tech-wise, perhaps even resource-wise, making sure they are safe on Stormia, forming, together with us and Vox, a counter-weight to the Bobian powers (should they remain allied and cooperating).

4. make sure GS can see some (at least faint) hope

What I consider very important... we need to word this part in such a way that it gives GS some hope to be able to make difference and perhaps even attempting to win (militarily) later on. By assuring them they will not fall behind technologically, by assuring them of our full help in case they get attacked on Stormia, they will hopefully consider giving up the current (untenable) position, or at least not drawing us into the war, choosing to withdraw and wait for a better opportunity to strike Bobians at a later date, trying to make us their best friend in the meantime. With no hope, their willingness to not draw us into the war would be close to none - what reason would they have to follow a path that favours us, if it gives them no hope?

People with no hope get desperate. Desperate people do desperate things. Let's avoid a desperate GS (I know they alrady are sort of desperate... but it could get worse).


5. make it clear we do not picture ourselves as acting on any moral high ground

I would finish the message by honestly admitting that we are fully aware of that our current policy is not "fair" to GS - but that simply wanting to win this game is not "fair" to anyone in the first place. That we fully acknowledge their right to feel bitter about our take on the situation - but that what we are doing is what we consider best in order to win the game in our, "builder", way. That we are playing the hand we were dealt to the best of our abilities... holding no grudges against them. Just doing what we feel we have to do.


I hope we would, through this message, achieve the following objectives:

1) we would not betray our allies in any way, as we would be strictly pushing for GS out of Bob (or, at least, GS not attacking GoW homeland), leaving the fate of RP in our allies' hands. That is what the goal of our alliance is. We have no obligations regarding the post-war times.

2) we would make sure GS knows where we stand and what our reaction is going to be if they a) attack GoW homeland, b) keep fighting in the South, c) quit the war and withdraw.

3) we would make sure GS knows that once the war is over and they/RP are out of Bob, we are ready to lift any and all restraints on our mutual relations, be it techs or resources... giving them hope of getting into a better position than the one they are currently in (their position can hardly be worse than it is now).

4) we would not actively help to end the war other than helping GS realize their efforts on Bob are (most likely) futile. We would leave it up to the Bobians and GS to find out a way out of their war.

[vondrack]

Alright, that's it.

[vondrack]

OK, guys, look... you know I am not against discussions... but this endless debate will get us nowhere... we need to focus a bit. (is it the Thanksgiving? Or should I have chopped my lengthy essay into smaller chunks? or still reading? )

Anyway, here is my attempt at our official response to GS. I welcome all suggestions, improvements, criticism, etc.

Honourable Nation of Gathering Storm,

We, the Senate of Legoland, thank you for the honest message and open analysis of your current situation and options. We hope this response of ours will make it easier for you to understand where we stand, what our plans/intensions are, and most importantly, how all that affects our current and future relations.

First: we, to a large extent, agree with your analysis regarding the potentials of Lego, GS, GoW, and ND. In case GoW and ND split Bob between themselves in a fair way, their potentials will almost match the potential of Lego, with GS being severely shafted. We also agree that a more-than-2-civ Bob would suit even our plans better, alas... we do not see a way to create a stable world incorporating such a setup.

Assuming RP either dies or survives only in a small exile in the Northern Stormia and GS gains a decent share of the Bobian territory (~100 tiles), the world might seem slightly better balanced at the first glance: Lego ~400 tiles, GoW, ND, and GS ~300 tiles each. The problem, though (from our point of view) would be that GS would make our situation easier (by weakening the potential of GoW & ND), while not improving its own enough to be able to win peacefully. If not giving up the hopes to win the game, GS would be forced to try conquering more land in order to match or outmatch us. Inevitably, we would have to respond by defending the attacked nations, getting involved.

Which, however, is exactly what's happening now.

When the war broke out and your armies joined, rather unexpectedly, the troops of RP, we faced quite a difficult decision. Despite GoW and ND entering their GA, we did not believe they were strong enough to withstand the might of yours & RP combined in the long run, especially considering your stunning triumph over the strong army of Voxian immortals (later events have pretty much confirmed our concerns). We had to decide whether we preferred Bob split between GoW & ND only or (possibly multinational) Bob with your strong presence - which we, as explained earlier in this message, regarded as a permanent threat to our long term plans (we do not wish to expand beyond Legos).

Considering the circumstances addressed earlier, we decided the lesser evil for us was Bob split between GoW & ND - and allied with them, strictly defining the extent of our involvement and the goal to achieve.

While it was not possible to ally with GoW & ND and protect them from being overwhelmed by your armies without de facto standing against RP, too, we did make it clear we would not get involved in operations against RP. There was/is a treaty binding us to join no wars against RP... and even though it probably sounds a bit ridiculous, we still honour it in the way we deem appropriate. The destruction or crippling of RP was/is not our business, even if we have no intentions to oppose it. Furthermore, it would be futile to pretend our own selfish interests are better served with anything but a prolonged conflict on Bob.

It certainly is no news for you that GoW and ND want no presence of yours on Bob. Legoland's role in this triple alliance is, said in a bit simplified way, to ensure you do not win (on Bob), rather than to ensure you lose there - though, in the end, it probably means the same.

However, we would like to make it crystal clear that our role in the alliance with GoW and ND ends with your last soldier leaving the shores of Bob (or with a peace treaty signed between you, GoW, and ND). As leaked in the chat some time ago, we even made it abundantly clear to our current allies we would not support any invasion of Stormia. Not only we would not support/join it, but we would actively oppose it, just like we currently oppose your presence on Bob.

Once the war is over, we are ready to fully revive the cooperation and trading between our two nations, including techs, luxuries, and possibly even strategic resources. As correctly implied by your message, a feeble GS would serve the victorious Bobians most, indirectly hurting our own interests.

We fully acknowledge that our approach to the current situation, with respect to you, is far from "fair". You've got every right to feel bitter about us standing in your way. But then, in this sense, trying to win the game is not "fair" to anyone... only one team can win and Lego wants to win, in its own "builder" way, as much as you or anyone else does.

We hope you understand - and we hope that despite standing against each other now, we will not remain that way forever.

The Senate of Legoland

[Tiberius]

First of all, there isn't any Thanksgiving here; however, yesterday was one of my friend's birthday party, and I just can't drink 6-7 beers and bear the consequencies so well like I used to in the good old days of my youth

Damn Radek, you scared me when you said Karina is sick! I thought there is something wrong with our FP Really! It took me a few seconds to realize that there is actually a living person with this name! I hope she's better now (the real Karina)

As for the analysis, it was very good, so having nothing to add to it, I was waiting for the draft itself.

The only thing I would like to see slightly rephrased is the part concerning our concerns (err, regarding our concerns ) that GS may took more land on Bob, should they be given a foothold. Something along the lines of the idea that "two powerful nations being in their GA barely can face a 200 tile GS. We can only anticipate with dread what could a 300 tile GS , with a second productive center, do against those 2 nations, with their GAs gone and their UUs obsolate."
And if it isn't clear enough, I would explicitly state that we consider a 300 tile GS a bigger threat and a more fearsome opponent than a 350 tile ND or GoW (both militarily and economically). At least now.

I would scrap the "actively" word from here: " Not only we would not support/join it, but we would actively oppose it, just like we currently oppose your presence on Bob." They may leak this info to ND+GoW and we don't want them attacking us instead of GS, thinking that they would need to fight us either way. "We would oppose it" would suffice, IMO. GS will understand that we would support them, while ND +GoW already know we wouldn't support such an attack; so the outcome is better.

I would also detail a bit more the part about us helping them after the war with good deals (especially with regard to technology) and maybe even more. Make this paragraph look more important. Give them more .. err ...bait. As much as they might value our sincere analysis, it is only a preamble. This paragraph is the most important part of our message, so detail it, or write it with bold characters, I don't know, just make it look as such.

Did I pass my exam to join the Machiavelli club ?

[redstar1]

Yes, very good message...

I would agree with Tibi in that we should perhaps mention more about our relationship post-war.... perhaps mentioning that if they feel they may get left behind we might be able to 'assist' them...

[vondrack]

Thanks for the feedback, guys. I was getting to feel lonely here...

Originally posted by Tiberius
The only thing I would like to see slightly rephrased is the part concerning our concerns (err, regarding our concerns ) that GS may took more land on Bob, should they be given a foothold. Something along the lines of the idea that "two powerful nations being in their GA barely can face a 200 tile GS. We can only anticipate with dread what could a 300 tile GS , with a second productive center, do against those 2 nations, with their GAs gone and their UUs obsolate."
And if it isn't clear enough, I would explicitly state that we consider a 300 tile GS a bigger threat and a more fearsome opponent than a 350 tile ND or GoW (both militarily and economically). At least now.

Well... first: both the GS note and our response deal with tile potentials. If you are inferior in using the tiles optimally (like, say, current GoW & ND), then you are not using the full potential of the land. But that does not affect the potential itself.

I do not think stressing the fact we consider a 300-tile GS a bigger threat than 350-tile GoW or ND is a good idea. It shows too much respect... even if we feel that respect (and yes, I agree we do), I think it's high time to start acting like the superpower we developed into. Even indirectly suggesting we consider them something more than other teams (in terms of the "intellectual/skill" rather than "tile" potential) is counterproductive, considering what we need - them feeling respect towards us.

At the same time... by admitting we consider a 300-tile GS more of a threat than a 350-tile GoW, we'd basically say we treat GS different from GoW/ND, not "granting" them the chances we "grant" GoW/ND. I would prefer not to touch this issue, even if there is some merit in it. It would likely make them feel even more bitter about us... I distinctly remember how bitter I felt when 3 other players ganged up on me in my only individual PBEM just because they considered me a dangerous (read: too good for them to handle in a fair fight) player that was to be crippled ASAP, while they were far superior to me in terms of combined power.

The whole issue of the current 200-tile GS being more dangerous than the current tile-superior GoW and ND is addressed elsewhere, in the part dealing with our reasons to ally with GoW/ND. I would leave it at that.

I would scrap the "actively" word from here: " Not only we would not support/join it, but we would actively oppose it, just like we currently oppose your presence on Bob." They may leak this info to ND+GoW and we don't want them attacking us instead of GS, thinking that they would need to fight us either way. "We would oppose it" would suffice, IMO. GS will understand that we would support them, while ND +GoW already know we wouldn't support such an attack; so the outcome is better.

Agreed completely.

I would also detail a bit more the part about us helping them after the war with good deals (especially with regard to technology) and maybe even more. Make this paragraph look more important. Give them more .. err ...bait. As much as they might value our sincere analysis, it is only a preamble. This paragraph is the most important part of our message, so detail it, or write it with bold characters, I don't know, just make it look as such.

Agreed, too. I am going to bed now, but I will try hard to enhance that part tomorrow.

Did I pass my exam to join the Machiavelli club ?

Solid B grade, Tibi!

j/k - every idea is more than welcome.

[Kloreep]

Agreed with stressing the future relations paragraph. Looks good

[ZargonX]

blargh! Full of turkey and now all this reading!? I'll try to catch up, but I'm sure what the others have said is fine

[vondrack]

Originally posted by vondrack
Agreed, too. I am going to bed now, but I will try hard to enhance that part tomorrow.

OK, as we need to polish the message before playing and forwarding the save, let's do this as fast as we can. Here is an enhanced version of the relevant paragraph:

Once the war is over, we are ready to fully revive the cooperation and trading between our two nations, including techs, luxuries, and possibly even strategic resources. As correctly implied by your message, a feeble GS would serve the victorious Bobians most, indirectly hurting our own interests. We are ready to ensure GS keeps at least on par with Bob tech-wise and that GS is properly armed to defend its homeland against potential invasions. Once the war on Bob is over (or GS no longer involved in it), there will be nothing preventing a close cooperation between our two nations, unless, of course, GS decides to not cooperate with a nation that hurt its interests in The Great Bobian War. Even if this paragraph is not written in bold, it is the key part of our message to you.

[redstar1]

sounds good