Gathering Storm - correspondence & foreign affairs

[Tiberius]

I'm not curious about the GS map, so I don't see why would we buy it. They apparently need money (huge military probably, and GA over) but why should I care?

The Edu propoal is interesting and two-bladed.
First, the negative side: GS would be back in the research business. They could go for banking and then Economics with its nice wonder and the road to Democracy would be open, too.

The plus side: we would receive a nice amount of money for rushes and upgrades. But how much? Their GNP is higher than ours, so probably around 200. Even after corruption and troops maintenance, I suppose 100 should remain on 0% research. So, with us slowing down to 40% research, that's probably 6 turns until Edu. 6 x 100 / 2 = 300 gold. Not bad, but less than that is not really worth it.
Honestly, considering how much we invested is Edu so far and how expensive it is, we should ask for more gold, unless no-whoring clauses would assure us good trades with others. But let's not push it. Even 300 is unlikely to be accepted, IMO.

[vondrack]

I would consider a combined deal - Edu for gold and their map. I have only one concern regarding the Edu trade - and that is: I do not want them to go for Music Theory right after getting Edu from us, trying to build Bach's.

However, that's highly unlikely - by "wasting time" on a dead-end, only-good-for-a-wonder tech, they would be out of the research race soon again. I do believe they'd go for Banking - and that is just fine with me. We go for Astronomy and trade it for Banking, letting GS go for Economics and get Adam Smith's... we cannot get ALL the medieval wonders and A.S.'s is one I would be fine to waive in favour of Magellan's.

So, considering we could get some fine money (agreed on we should ask for about 200-300 gold) to upgrade our horses to knights sooner, I would not oppose the idea. And speaking of the map... I am a bit curious, since I would like to know what their production potential is.

I would start with Edu for 250 gold and their map, going down no lower than 200 gold and their map, if they try to bargain.

But let's see what they come up with.

[Tiberius]

We could combine this trade with a Banking for Astronomy deal, to make it more attractive.

Given the fact that Astronomy is more expensive than Banking with 100 beakers, I say let's ask for Banking + 300 gold ( + maybe their WM ) and offer Edu + Astronomy.

One more thing, not really related to GS: after the Cathedral, let's start in Legopolis the Sistine Chappel and switch to Bach's only in the last turn (I'm not sure about the shield value, though; are they the same?). Even better: start with a university, change to Sistine and in the end change to Bach's.

[vondrack]

Originally posted by Tiberius
We could combine this trade with a Banking for Astronomy deal, to make it more attractive.

Given the fact that Astronomy is more expensive than Banking with 100 beakers, I say let's ask for Banking + 300 gold ( + maybe their WM ) and offer Edu + Astronomy.

Now, that's a good idea! This would be a sufficient guarantee that they go for Banking, leaving us free to go for Astronomy and Music Theory afterwards. I will be sure to mention this to DeepO or Arrian.

Originally posted by Tiberius
One more thing, not really related to GS: after the Cathedral, let's start in Legopolis the Sistine Chappel and switch to Bach's only in the last turn (I'm not sure about the shield value, though; are they the same?). Even better: start with a university, change to Sistine and in the end change to Bach's.

Yes, starting with Uni will definitely be the plan (we do have some experience in faking our real wonder build intentions ...hehe, paraphrasing your line form the RP thread). Fortunately, both Sistine's and Bach's are 600 shield wonders.

[vondrack]

I acknowledged the receipt of the message, making it clear using Sistine's as a wonder prebuild is no problem with us and throwing in the Astronomy for Banking idea. Let's see what they think of it... let's keep building our relations with GS.

Hello, DeepO!

We are happy to see you happy about the deal.

And - using the Sistine's Chapel as a prebuild for another wonder is definitely not a problem with us at all.

Just a quick idea, not really official, but may be good to consider... discussing our chat from last night with my teammates today, it seems we'd not mind selling Edu to you, if the price in gold is right - we would probably be looking for roughly half of what you can save by going 100% tax until we finish researching Edu (~6 turns to go, it seems)... dunno how much that would actually be, so I'll leave determining the figure up to you. Let's hope it will be enough to make it a fine deal for us, too... not sure how many retiring soldiers you have to pay these days...

But - the idea... to make the deal even more attractive for you, we might discount this amount by the value of your WM (~40-50 gold) AND couple it with a fine future tech deal. What about prearranging a trade where we would provide you with Astronomy in exchange for Banking? Astronomy is slightly more expensive beaker-wise, so this might be an additional sweetener for you... just an idea. We do not want Bobians to become too strong, do we? So we better help each other, I guess...

Regards,
vondrack

[vondrack]

And a rather vague response from DeepO:

Thanks Vondrack,

As to the Edu deal: I certainly will propose it to my team. However, on a personal note, I'm not sure we would be willing to disclose our exact gold income, I hope you can appreciate this... openness has it limits

But, as a start of a proposal it certainly counts, let me find out how much we can invest... it will depend on a few details, I assume you would be interesting in a 20-turn NDA, leaving you as the sole provider for Edu to other nations, after all, you did the research, even if we 'helped'. Allow me to discuss this in our forum, I'll get back to you asap.

As to prearranging a Astronomy / banking swap: I think this certainly has a good chance of succeeding. However, we're still not sure what to research next, even if it was said a couple of times that tech for tech deals are maybe the only way to get decent prices for our research. I think we would welcome all good proposals here, and would be willing to adapt quite a bit to other teams, if it wouldn't cost us as dearly as the Feudalism fiasco.

So, for how much I have any power in these matters (I'm just one of many voices ), these proposals are very interesting, and can at least lead to good deals for both sides. I assure you they will get the attention they deserve.

kind regards,
DeepO

[lmtoops]

What a well worded response from DeepO. He commited to nothing, opened several escape routes, and vaguely suggested that GS is doing us a favor.

Oh well, so goes politics. I think we will get a resonable deal from them.

[Kloreep]

In the end, it's the deals that really count...

Wonder how long it'll take RP to figure that out.

[vondrack]

DeepO's proposal:

Vondrack,

I'm sorry, I have very little time atm (some friends are nagging me to stop typing and go out with them), so my apologies if I miss some things here.

We discussed the Edu deal on our forum, and response has been very positive. So, would you be interested in receiving 180 gold + our WM as a future payment for Education? If you approve, I'm sure we can send payment this turn (we still hold the save). This should be about what you expected, but if not, let us know.

This includes a 20-turn NDA, and a future banking / astronomy swap (again with 20-turn NDAs) (sorry to not be able to more formally formulate this due to time-constraints).

Further, we were thinking on a way of not cutting into each other's profits, that even if the 20-turn NDA expires, we share profits from the sale of each other's techs. This is still a rough idea, so possibly a chat could more accurately outline something that is beneficial to both of us. If we could agree on this soon, we should be able to do this also for Education, in case you would not be able to sell it to Bob if war breaks out.

In order to be faster, could you (also) send a response to Arrian and nye? This evening, they should be around to handle further negotiations, including a formal ratification. I can't check the forum before tomorrow... my apologies.

Kind regards,
DeepO

[vondrack]

I'd say 180 gold is a bit under what I would be happy with. Considering we know they have more than 212 commerce (see the Next turn thread for my findings), I would assume they should be able to save ~100 gold per turn... which gives 600 gold over 6 turns, half of which is 300 minus 50 for the map is 250 gold.

Even with some discount from our side, I would still be looking for ~230. So, I would like to see 50 more gold thrown into the deal from their side. Here is what I responded to DeepO:

DeepO,

Sorry - I was AFK since ~6pm my time yesterday - got your PM only this morning. Honestly - 180 gold is less than what we were hoping for. If (180+50)*2/6=~80 gpt is all what is left after paying your upkeep costs, then... well, we feel for you. 230 gold for Education is... hm... let's say, we'd be EXTREMELY happy to buy Edu for 230 gold ourselves, that's for sure.

I am posting your PM in our forum to see what other Legos think. Possible adjustments I can think of now: delaying the discovery of Edu so that you have 1-2 extra turns to save a bit more cash or postponing a small part of the payment (above the sum you offered) until the Astro/Bank swap.

Either way - I do not think this must be finalized until we are really close to discovering Education - we should have at least 2-3 turns to come up with more ideas. We do not ask for any "prepayments" and we can certainly wait few more turns for your map, so there is no need to hold the save just to have the deal finalized with us.

Even though we will most probably want to add something to the deal, I hope we are not far from reaching a compromise acceptable for both sides.

I hope to be able to get back to you very soon.

Regards,
vondrack

My suggestions how to counter this proposal:

1) offer to delay the discovery of Education for 1-2 turns, allowing them to save more cash, paying 50 more gold.
2) add a 50 gold balance to the Astro/Bank swap.

Note: and let's keep in mind we have never even tried to negotiate the price of their map, which they set to 50 gold (and it was made quite clear it's not the least they would agree with).

[Tiberius]

This is not very generous, to say the least. Considering the difference between astronomy and banking, the proposal makes Edu a very cheap tech. It is true that they are offering their WM, but that's not very important for us.
We know that their GNP is bigger than 215. We are paying/losing roughly 100 gold for corruption and maintenance (both buildings and army). (I don't have a save here, so correct me if I'm wrong) Let's say that they are losing 100, too (more troops but less corruption). It is still 100+ gpt. But they can put aside only 180 gold in 5 turns! Sure

Besides we have the upper hand here, I think. They need money and in the same time have nothing to research right now, without wasting beakers.

For the sake of a good relations with GS (and future tech trades) I'd settle on 200-250, but no less. Honestly I'd prefer to let them reseach Edu on their own just to teach them a lesson.

Edit: ahh, crossposted with Radek

[Tiberius]

Btw, I was thinking to delay Edu with one turn, anyway. We'd save some cash, with or without the GS deal.
I'll check the save at home, to see the options.

[vondrack]

Another follow-up from DeepO:

Vondrack,

I can imagine your surprise... it is as we thought. We might be able too sweeten the deal on your side a bit, however we did not lie to you about our income. Don't forget we had no time to build marketplaces, and our military is quite possibly double or triple yours. The Vox war has cost us a lot... we're recuperating though, but it will take time.

But, one (personal) remark about pricing: with a 20-turn NDA, and even a commitment of us to not profit from Edu even after the NDA would have been finished, you can't expect that we pay half your beaker cost in gold... you have 4 more buyers, and the second-researcher cost is already lower... don't get me wrong, I'm sure we can up the price (a little), but don't expect miracles

As to delaying Education (or payment): that shouldn't be needed. As long as we can reach an agreement before you run out of cash, we should be able to fulfill our part of the deal. While we would have hoped to have higher cash reserves (a lot higher cash reserves ), we're not broke...

kind regards,
DeepO

Now... thinking about it... I believe noone here is going to suspect me of too much sympathy to the GS' cause... but I believe they are not lying... at least no too much. 180g was the first offer - and as they admit, they are ready to up the price a bit.

I believe that the gross national product (GNP) we can sort of guesstimate from the F11 screen may be a little bit misleading - considering their cities are pop-maxxed, I believe they (unlike us) have to spend some money on the luxury slider. Not too much, but quite probably more than 0%. Their military must be, no doubt, at least twice as large as ours. Their corruption, that's true, lower. So, let's say they have GNP of 220-230, corruption takes 15-20% (our corruption is 25% on average, and that's with the courthouse in Karina)... that's 176-196. We have 45 units, they may very well have 90, that I would believe. Add in a couple of city improvements and - net 80 gold need not be far from the truth.

So, as much as I am no fan of GS, I tend to believe they are not playing tricks here, not much - it's the absolute price we would be getting that is not fully adequate, not the fact they'd be trying to get it for less than we said we would be looking for (1/2 of what they'd be able to save before we discover Edu).

As DeepO clearly says they would prefer us not delaying the discovery of Edu, so I would suggest the following:

Let's ask GS to throw additional 50 gold into the deal, payable at the moment we swap Astronomy and Banking.

The deal then would be:

1) 180 gold & their WM at the moment we deliver Edu
2) 50 gold & at the moment we swap Banking and Astro

This is still quite generous from our side (and we should make it clear we're doing this as a "favour" to a team we consider our natural long-term "ally" against the combined power of Bob) and still nets us a fairly good amount of gold (considering the map worth 50g, which is just about right, I think, even if we have no strong urge to acquire it, 280g for Education is not that bad).

Note, please, that throughout the negotiations with DeepO, I was deliberately giving a slightly later ETA on the Edu research completion (by about 1 turn), so we can still slightly slow our research, making some money ourselves.

[vondrack]

And a side-remark: it seems GS believes we must be running a deficit budget, possibly being low on cash reserves - if not, I then don't understand DeepO's line about the "agreement being reached before we run out of cash".

Let them believe that...

[Tiberius]

What you should explain to DeepO in a possible future chat about this matter is that we don't expect them to pay half the cost of Edu, but half the money they make parking their research slider on 0. There's a huge difference. Should they have a 90 gpt net income, it means they are aquiring Edu from us at the cost of 2 turns of no-research !! (3 if the net income is as low as 60 gpt) and this not even considering the beaker difference between Banking and Astronomy. Whatever they may say, this is almost a gift.

The deal then would be:

1) 180 gold & their WM at the moment we deliver Edu
2) 50 gold & at the moment we swap Banking and Astro

I'd agree with that. The fact that they agree not to resell Edu to others is indeed a sweetener.