The Enlightened Thread

[vondrack]

First: Tibi, you used Mfg. Goods instead of GNP. Using the GNP figure may (and probably will ) yield a different result.

Second: why do we need to have gunpowder ASAP? I see no major difference between Mercs and Muskets (defending cities against Knights, Riders, or Ansars)... and that's the only benefit coming out of Gunpowder I can recall.

But what is more important: we will spend ~13-14 turns researching Astronomy. Then ~10-11 turns on Music Theory. Then ~10 turns on Navigation (Nav is crucial for a peaceful trigger of our GA... I would very much like to avoid using the cheap "Vox warrior sacrifice" trick). That is 30+ turns on different "upper branch" research goals. So, Voxes would have more or less time enough to go for a 40-turn research...

However... the argument that GoW will go for Inv as fast as possible (to get Leo's) is correct. And if we can trade for Invention reasonably (using Astro), then it might be even better to have Voxes shut their research down completely until the discovery of Invention, having them research only Gunpowder for us (while we would do PP & Demo, hopefully switching to democracy before triggering our GA with Magellan's Exp). With the HUGE beaker difference between Inv & Astro, we could ask GoW to balance the deal with Invention "resale" rights, allowing us to provide the tech to Voxes.

[Tiberius]

Originally posted by vondrack
First: Tibi, you used Mfg. Goods instead of GNP. Using the GNP figure may (and probably will ) yield a different result.

Damn

(I was wondering why are the numbers so small )

[Tiberius]

Great news! Apparently the Great Lighthouse allows the GS to trade over sea tiles and now that we have a harbor we can trade with them!

I suggest immediate talks to establish a dye - incence or dye - furs trade route.

[vondrack]

Originally posted by Tiberius
Great news! Apparently the Great Lighthouse allows the GS to trade over sea tiles and now that we have a harbor we can trade with them!

I suggest immediate talks to establish a dye - incence or dye - furs trade route.

Tibi, see my note in the Next turn plans thread - I would rather wait a bit until THEY approach US. ATM, an extra luxury will have little effect on our economy - our high pop cities are building settlers anyway, soon dropping in pop and all our pop<=6 cities are just fine as they are.

I believe that our dyes could help GS more than their lux would help us.

If they offer a trade (1 for 1), then let's not be difficult and take it. But if they do not approach us on their own, let's not push it. There is little we can gain here.

[Tiberius]

I answered in the next turn plans thread.
We would gain from that luxury (for example Forkmouth would finish the settler one turn earlier). I'm not saying we should beg them, but we could propose the trade.

Why would they benefit more? They are already trading with ND + their two luxuries, that's 3 luxuries.

[vondrack]

Originally posted by Tiberius
I answered in the next turn plans thread.

And so did I - see my response there, please.

[vondrack]

Just making sure it does not go unnoticed...

In the chat with GoW and ND, we discussed the near future research-wise. I took the liberty to propose something I consider the only possible way now:

1) we finish Astro at the current pace
2) we wait at 100% tax until GoW delivers Invention (should be in 7 turns)
3) we go for gunpowder at 100% science, getting donations from GoW and ND - should be doable in 6 turns max
4) we provide gunpowder to GoW & ND
5) we slow down and do Music Theory

As we have 22 turns before Legopolis finishes the build, this should work out nicely:

5 turns to do Astronomy
2 turns waiting
6 turns to do Gunpowder (who knows... maybe 5)
8 turns to do Music Theory - should be just doable

[Tiberius]

Ghhh... It is on the edge. But we can slow down Legopolis at anytime; let them grow and build a little slower. Gunpowder is much more important right now. (so in preparation we should cut a jungle in the meantime and irrigate the grass beneath)

Anyway the FP will be ready in the meantime so the cashflow and research should improve substancially.

[Tiberius]

RESEARCH UPDATE

Researching: Gunpowder
Value: 1152
Current research output: science on 100% -> ~245 beakers/turn
ETA: 5 turns (turn 142)

Planned next tech: Music Theory
Value: 960
Reseach time: ~ 7 or 8 turns without losing money

Total turns until Music Theory: 12 - 13.
Toatal nr. of turns until Legopolis must change to Bach's Cathedral: 14 turns.

We are on track

Following tech: Navigation? Magellan's wouldn't hurt.
Or perhaps the Military Tradition branch?
I suppose it is too early to tell. In 10 turns we will be smarter.

[Sharpe]

Navigation would be nice to attempt to try to get our GA by building Magellan (it would be nice to get another wonder as GS seems to be trying to build nearly every wonder it seems )

Though perhaps Banking would be more useful now that we aren't getting it from GS (admittedly if we kept this 100% research for long we wouldn't get much use out of banks)

I suspect that our allies will push us to get Chemistry and thus one step closer to Metallurgy's cannons and Military Tradition's cavalry.

[Kloreep]

I think the Military Tradition branch would be a good next step. Either GS will attack full-force and cause some major trouble, in which case cannons and Cavalry will help to push them back, or they will be driven off Bob in which case we don't have to trade the techs and can have Cav all to ourselves for a while.

Magellan's would be nice, but where would we build it? I don't want to spend the shields right now.

[redstar1]

I think if we are going to involve ourself militarily that puts us at risk ... cavalry and cannons would certainly help to blunt the risk.

I often find getting Cavalry is the turning point in any civ game, the point at which you stop being wary of other civs because you know that with a few cavalry units you can do enough damage to any invading force...

[vondrack]

I have been thinking about our future research a lot over the last couple of days and... I have to say that while I generally agree the Military Tradition branch is definitely the way to go in the long run, I am convinced we have to do two techs from the Edu branch BEFORE continuing the research in the military branch of the medieval techtree.

The first one is Music Theory - for obvious reasons.

The second one is Navigation - for reasons I am going to outline here:

1) our best shot at (planned) GA

We are the only team that is still in the main race that has not triggered its GA yet. That effectively means we are putting ourselves at a great disadvantage, offset only by that we have succeeded to avoid wasting our production in wars so far (but that's not going to apply for too long). GA, especially if properly planned, are HUGE.

At this very moment, we would have a raw production increase of almost 90 shields per turn (just count the shield-yeilding tiles we are working ATM). For 20 turns, we would be talking like 20*100=2000 shields! Without ANY planning-ahead at all! That's something we should not dismiss without considering it properly.

As for the GA timing... the best timing for our GA would be when we have something to spend the extra gold and shields on. From this point of view, the current and upcoming time (mid to late medieval) is just perfect. Missing libraries and universities, harbours, cathedrals and colossea, marketplaces and banks... there is so much to build in this period!

I know, we could always have Voxes sacrifice a warrior to our merc. But I would really, REALLY like to avoid (ab)using this workaround. In my eyes, it is a very cheesy trick, one that does not go well with a team wishing to win the game in a way gaining respect, perhaps even admiration. No other team lowered themselves to a staged UU victory. And I would feel ashamed if we were the only ones doing so.

As our mercs are unlikely to make it into a real fight (I do not believe we will send any of them over to Bob, as we will already have muskets in a few turns... besides, mercs are less impressive these day than 50 turns ago), we will need a commerical wonder to trigger our GA.

There are only two commercial wonders ahead of us (speaking reasonable timespan): Adam Smith's Trading Company and Magellan's Expedition. Of these two, ME is MUCH cheaper shield-wise. 400 shields against 600 shields. Plus, it grants a very useful bonus - an extra movement point for all ships.

Now, if you compare the cost of Magellan's Expedition (400 shields) to the extra shields we would get in our GA (AT LEAST 2000, but much more likely some 3000), that's some pretty good investment, is it not? All we'd have to do would be to make some planning, making sure we have all our cities in place and as close to pop 12 as possible.

I hope to find some time to look at this at the low level, finding out how many terrain and city improvements we'd need to efficiently use GA timed to the mid-term future (~30 turns from now?).

If the war is going fine, we will be able to massively improve our infrastructure, taking advantage of all the happiness related help we are getting from our allies for free. And if the war is NOT going fine, we will be able to turn the tides with masses of 3-, maybe even 2-turn knights flooding the battlefield...

Think of it some...

2) immense strategic value

Magellan's Expedition and the whole GA issue aside, Navigation is of an immense strategic value, especially if we were the only ones having it (or: if GS did not have it).

Even if we do not plan for invading Stormia across the Western Ocean, it is not to say we should not consider using the threat of such an invasion. Just imagine what a mess our fleet of ~8 caravels or galleons appearing within the striking distance of Stormia could cause (once we enter the war against GS "publicly"). GS is quite likely keeping their homeland only lightly defended, very well knowing there is nobody able to attack them across the sea.

Such an unexpected move might easily turn into THE breaking point in the Great Bobian War. Even just the theoretical threat of an overseas invasion would force GS to keep more troops at home, having fewer of them to deploy on Bob.

3) other considerations

I will grant you that Navigation is an optional tech. And a pretty costly one. But if we use it to trigger our GA, we will most likely be able to maintain 4-turn tech research for the full 20 turns of our GA without losing money. If you count the yet undiscovered mandatory techs, you will find out that if Voxes do Banking for us in the meantime (which I believe would be doable), we should be able to enter Industrial Era at the end of our GA or shortly afterwards - even if doing Military Tradition.

Now, throw in the free Vox tech - Nationalism, Steam Power, or Medicine. Nationalism would make us pretty much invincible, as riflemen easily stop almost any kind of cavalry based attack. And Steam Power and Medicine put us one tech closer to Scientific Method and the well known Hoover Dam gambit. I know this is a bit far-fetched, but it is not all that impossible to pull.

With the exception of Music Theory and Navigation, which should IMHO be the first techs researched after Gunpowder, I agree we should go for the lower branch of the medieval age techtree - leaving the upper branch to Voxes (with GS giving Banking up, it is just perfect, as Voxes will have both techs they will need from "friendly" sources - Printing Press from their own research, Education from us... and they will be able to happily go for whatever tech in the upper branch they might wish (first Banking, then Economy, or Democracy...).

So, my plan would be:

1) Music Theory - because of the Bach's
2) Navigation - because of the Magellan's and GA
3) Chemistry - inevitable
4) Metallurgy - because of cannons and to cancel the effect of The Great Wall
5) Military Tradition - because of cavalry
6) Magnetism - because of the naval power and to cancel the effect of The Great Lighthouse
7) Theory of Gravity - to leave medieval times

Let's start some serious debate here - we have a little bit over 10 turns to finalize our post-Music Theory research strategy.

[Sharpe]

Good summary Vondrack.

Unless I missed it you sorta forgot about Physics being needed for both Magnetism and Theory of Gravity.

I also think that to properly benefit from any GA (or just for good financial reasons) that we also need to research Banking ourselves sometime as we might need the extra income from Banks in some of our larger cities. It is important enough not to leave it to Vox.

Admittedly with their higher maintenance fees, the threshold for profitably building banks is much higher than it was for mktplaces. So we should determine which cities would benefit most from a bank and whether they can build it relatively quickly.

[Kloreep]

Originally posted by vondrack
No other team lowered themselves to a staged UU victory.

On the other hand, all civs have been/are at war, and except RP, they all had/have their UUs.

Originally posted by vondrack
There are only two commercial wonders ahead of us (speaking reasonable timespan): Adam Smith's Trading Company and Magellan's Expedition. Of these two, ME is MUCH cheaper shield-wise. 400 shields against 600 shields. Plus, it grants a very useful bonus - an extra movement point for all ships.

On the other hand, for those extra 200 shields, you get +1 gold for every city with a market, +1 gold for every city with a harbor, etc.

Just playing capitalist pig's advocate.

Originally posted by vondrack
I hope to find some time to look at this at the low level, finding out how many terrain and city improvements we'd need to efficiently use GA timed to the mid-term future (~30 turns from now?).

If the war is going fine, we will be able to massively improve our infrastructure, taking advantage of all the happiness related help we are getting from our allies for free. And if the war is NOT going fine, we will be able to turn the tides with masses of 3-, maybe even 2-turn knights flooding the battlefield...

I think the war will be decided in 30 turns. Unless GS is on the way to utterly wiping out ND and GoW, of course, in which case we prepare to defend Legos. But GAs are always good regardless of war or peace.

Originally posted by vondrack
Magellan's Expedition and the whole GA issue aside, Navigation is of an immense strategic value, especially if we were the only ones having it (or: if GS did not have it).

Even if we do not plan for invading Stormia across the Western Ocean, it is not to say we should not consider using the threat of such an invasion. Just imagine what a mess our fleet of ~8 caravels or galleons appearing within the striking distance of Stormia could cause (once we enter the war against GS "publicly"). GS is quite likely keeping their homeland only lightly defended, very well knowing there is nobody able to attack them across the sea.

Such an unexpected move might easily turn into THE breaking point in the Great Bobian War. Even just the theoretical threat of an overseas invasion would force GS to keep more troops at home, having fewer of them to deploy on Bob.

Completely agreed here.



Re: Vox techs, I would be fine with them doing Banking. Why? Because I am anti-university and anti-bank. We have better improvements and units to build.

Banks cost 160 shields + 1 gold a turn. Rushed, that's 640 gold. Even in a city devoting 22 gold a turn to savings, that's 64 turns to payoff. Even at upgrade rates which don't apply to buildings, that's a 32 turn payoff. Universities are even worse, with 40 more shields and an extra gold maintenance for a little culture.

I'm not saying Banks and Unis should never be built, but I would wait until all other improvements except Cols have been built; preferably until Factories and Hospitals are built. There are plenty of other improvements to be built in the meantime, and our army and navy need beefing up.